had started this midweek. getting this out of way now. chunk-blowing session yesterday, tho having a decent week with a couple of big days its been a roller coaster ride.
Serie A: tricky card. and on top of that have several futures pending. decided to take a bunch of chances.
I know the EPL got their season ending "thing" going on this wknd; though no titles or anything like that at stake, there still some very interesting scenarios in Serie A.
(please "skip" this one)
Roma/Juventus - at seasons start, this match was on everyones Top 5 of dropping points (we've only won ONCE in past 7 visits there) but the season unfolded quite differently. thy big "D'OH......Captain Obvious" Homer-Extreme play. first of all, we have nothing to play for as everything is wrapped up. Totti, like clockwork, running his mouth again all week; and Roma fans saying all sorts of sorts. our former coach Conte this past week just announced he turned down their job offer (which is like spraying gasoline on a wildfire). not sure if Christian is "on-board" with this rivalry/derby and all that, being 'new to the area'. but im positive Giorgio clued him in and brought him up-to-date on things. and he still wants that goalscoring title so perhaps everyone will feed him the ball. and nothing would make our upper management happier than helping to knock Roma out of europe next year. Roma badly needs points; but they were d*mn lucky to get one last week with a saved PK in injury time.
they havent scored against us 5 of the past 6 H2H's. lets make it 6 out of 7. scr*w them.
Juventus to win @+185
Juventus -1.5 @+450 - because I can.
The Coppa Italia Final is being played this coming wednesday. no Juve. no Napoli. no Roma. a "once-in-a-decade" kind of thing for these clubs. (Lazio/Atalanta). with the prize of a "backdoor" entry into UEL next year.
Atalanta/Genoa - this is one where I didnt expect to have to wait till May, need the home side to drop pts in either of their two remaining home matches; theyve been quite fortunate in regards to the scheduling this year when hosting the bigger teams. and with them sitting in that final 4th CL slot makes it interesting, but im not entirely sure theyll be able to hold that down. Genoa still in the relegation fight and have been playing poorly of late. but prices on the visitors have been hammered the past few days.
1) several suspensions; their key midfielder (Gomez) whom makes their offense run & most experienced defender are out. which is why Zapata is juiced to be a goalscorer, tho not taking him he's #1 choice this round in fantasy group cause of Genoas leaky defense on road.
2) the match was moved south to Sassuolos grounds due to construction on their home stadium.
3) Coppa Italia final midweek.
though I need them to drop pts to hit that future, I'd rather see them grab the 4th spot than Roma/Milano, not sure theyll be able to manage (especially with that trip to Turin next week). though they are familiar with this stadium (had to play all of their Europa home games there due to UEFA regulations; however, they have played very poorly there. and that suspension to Gomez is significant to them. worth a chance at these prices considering the scenario.
had started this midweek. getting this out of way now. chunk-blowing session yesterday, tho having a decent week with a couple of big days its been a roller coaster ride.
Serie A: tricky card. and on top of that have several futures pending. decided to take a bunch of chances.
I know the EPL got their season ending "thing" going on this wknd; though no titles or anything like that at stake, there still some very interesting scenarios in Serie A.
(please "skip" this one)
Roma/Juventus - at seasons start, this match was on everyones Top 5 of dropping points (we've only won ONCE in past 7 visits there) but the season unfolded quite differently. thy big "D'OH......Captain Obvious" Homer-Extreme play. first of all, we have nothing to play for as everything is wrapped up. Totti, like clockwork, running his mouth again all week; and Roma fans saying all sorts of sorts. our former coach Conte this past week just announced he turned down their job offer (which is like spraying gasoline on a wildfire). not sure if Christian is "on-board" with this rivalry/derby and all that, being 'new to the area'. but im positive Giorgio clued him in and brought him up-to-date on things. and he still wants that goalscoring title so perhaps everyone will feed him the ball. and nothing would make our upper management happier than helping to knock Roma out of europe next year. Roma badly needs points; but they were d*mn lucky to get one last week with a saved PK in injury time.
they havent scored against us 5 of the past 6 H2H's. lets make it 6 out of 7. scr*w them.
Juventus to win @+185
Juventus -1.5 @+450 - because I can.
The Coppa Italia Final is being played this coming wednesday. no Juve. no Napoli. no Roma. a "once-in-a-decade" kind of thing for these clubs. (Lazio/Atalanta). with the prize of a "backdoor" entry into UEL next year.
Atalanta/Genoa - this is one where I didnt expect to have to wait till May, need the home side to drop pts in either of their two remaining home matches; theyve been quite fortunate in regards to the scheduling this year when hosting the bigger teams. and with them sitting in that final 4th CL slot makes it interesting, but im not entirely sure theyll be able to hold that down. Genoa still in the relegation fight and have been playing poorly of late. but prices on the visitors have been hammered the past few days.
1) several suspensions; their key midfielder (Gomez) whom makes their offense run & most experienced defender are out. which is why Zapata is juiced to be a goalscorer, tho not taking him he's #1 choice this round in fantasy group cause of Genoas leaky defense on road.
2) the match was moved south to Sassuolos grounds due to construction on their home stadium.
3) Coppa Italia final midweek.
though I need them to drop pts to hit that future, I'd rather see them grab the 4th spot than Roma/Milano, not sure theyll be able to manage (especially with that trip to Turin next week). though they are familiar with this stadium (had to play all of their Europa home games there due to UEFA regulations; however, they have played very poorly there. and that suspension to Gomez is significant to them. worth a chance at these prices considering the scenario.
Cagliari/Lazio - after losing at home to Atalanta last wknd putting a huge dent in europe next year, they have the Coppa Final midweek. going up against those island boys whom are one of the stronger home teams in Serie A and have contract incentive if they can come in the top 10 (currently sit 2 points out). Lazio lost to god-awful, cellar dwelling Chievo (at home too) a few weeks back, then went out and played their best match in months beating Milan in San Siro in the 2nd leg to advance to the Coppa finals. now 2 weeks later, same scenario and slipping in the table; worth a shot with a motivated home side.
Cagliari +1/2 @-110
Fiorentina/Milan - (YAWN). Viola havent won since February, 13 matches. not even a coaching change helped, but this is one of the places Milan historically struggle in as I think theyve won just once here this decade. PASS.
Torino/Sassuolo - in line for a big payout if Toro can come 6th or higher. so no need to do anything with this one except pray they grab the 'w'. Torino do not fare well in the heavy favorite role. and have won just twice in past 9 meetings. PASS.
Sampdoria/Empoli - Samp nothing to play for excpt help Quag win the goal scoring title; many hoping the old man can do it. Empoli needs to go for pts to avoid relegation, but with one of the worst defenses on road this should become pretty entertaining as the 6 goals in the reverse fixture. Samp/Empoli over 3.5 @+150
Frosinone/Udine - PASS
SPAL/Napoli - PASS
Serie B: too many conflicting rumors making this round impossible to cap; especially the matches involving those two southern teams battling it out for 2nd place auto-promotion slot (Lecce, Palermo).
Brescia to win @-120, Brescia/Benevento over 3.5 @+140 - invited and heading out there to join the festivities as the wknd celebration began (actually tonight) for Brescias promotion back to Serie A, along with their Serie B title. heard rumors of Baggio in attendance . season ending home match vs an opponent safe in 4th place awaiting the playoffs. 2 of 3 teams whom have over 100 total goals (for/against) for the season should be a fun one between teams whom dont need to worry about defense.
Verona/Foggia draw @+220
EPL: a festive season-ending wknd being able to put all 4 clubs into the Finals after this past midweek. im not even going to try to figure the card out
10-match over 1.5 @+420 - as a close friend out there says: "score..... ya bloddy wankas!!!"
Cagliari/Lazio - after losing at home to Atalanta last wknd putting a huge dent in europe next year, they have the Coppa Final midweek. going up against those island boys whom are one of the stronger home teams in Serie A and have contract incentive if they can come in the top 10 (currently sit 2 points out). Lazio lost to god-awful, cellar dwelling Chievo (at home too) a few weeks back, then went out and played their best match in months beating Milan in San Siro in the 2nd leg to advance to the Coppa finals. now 2 weeks later, same scenario and slipping in the table; worth a shot with a motivated home side.
Cagliari +1/2 @-110
Fiorentina/Milan - (YAWN). Viola havent won since February, 13 matches. not even a coaching change helped, but this is one of the places Milan historically struggle in as I think theyve won just once here this decade. PASS.
Torino/Sassuolo - in line for a big payout if Toro can come 6th or higher. so no need to do anything with this one except pray they grab the 'w'. Torino do not fare well in the heavy favorite role. and have won just twice in past 9 meetings. PASS.
Sampdoria/Empoli - Samp nothing to play for excpt help Quag win the goal scoring title; many hoping the old man can do it. Empoli needs to go for pts to avoid relegation, but with one of the worst defenses on road this should become pretty entertaining as the 6 goals in the reverse fixture. Samp/Empoli over 3.5 @+150
Frosinone/Udine - PASS
SPAL/Napoli - PASS
Serie B: too many conflicting rumors making this round impossible to cap; especially the matches involving those two southern teams battling it out for 2nd place auto-promotion slot (Lecce, Palermo).
Brescia to win @-120, Brescia/Benevento over 3.5 @+140 - invited and heading out there to join the festivities as the wknd celebration began (actually tonight) for Brescias promotion back to Serie A, along with their Serie B title. heard rumors of Baggio in attendance . season ending home match vs an opponent safe in 4th place awaiting the playoffs. 2 of 3 teams whom have over 100 total goals (for/against) for the season should be a fun one between teams whom dont need to worry about defense.
Verona/Foggia draw @+220
EPL: a festive season-ending wknd being able to put all 4 clubs into the Finals after this past midweek. im not even going to try to figure the card out
10-match over 1.5 @+420 - as a close friend out there says: "score..... ya bloddy wankas!!!"
GL spec, like the reasoning with Genoa so I will tail ya. Atalanta my favorite Italian club besides Juve but I like Genoa I’m this spot with Copa on Wednesday and the suspensions
GL spec, like the reasoning with Genoa so I will tail ya. Atalanta my favorite Italian club besides Juve but I like Genoa I’m this spot with Copa on Wednesday and the suspensions
Spec, curious of your thoughts on the away goal rule since you mentioned it. Got into an argument with someone who said it should be abolished but I think they away goal rule saves us some from passive first leg matches
Spec, curious of your thoughts on the away goal rule since you mentioned it. Got into an argument with someone who said it should be abolished but I think they away goal rule saves us some from passive first leg matches
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