102-79-5 +21.26
cuse lol zone got savagely wrecked
played a few, considering one other
1.05 / 1
Bama +3 vs. auburn
I like the spot and matchup for Bama, though given the poor coaching and often poor shot selection, won't be easy. It's a desperation spot at home against the rival who's style is often less effective on the road. Bama typically limit 3's well with their length, allowing low % made and less 25% of points against them are from 3. Aub was 13-22 in the 1st game. Justt dont see anything near that kind of efficiency happening for auburn here, combo of it being out of their own gym and Bama's defensive ability in contesting them. Gotta believe they will have a much greater intensity on D this go round, with better contested shots. Auburn was just outrebounded 41-21 by mississippi state and I see it as an area Bama can make up for the likely turnovers deficit. Bama had a terrible 21 turnovers in the 1st game, keep that more in the 15 range (they're unlikely to do much better than that but 15ish is more manageable) combined with less efficient auburn shooting from 3, and attacking the rim taking advantage of auburn's foul proneness, I see Bama taking this game.
1.07 / 1
Akron -3 vs. bowling green
Akron was just thoroughly embarrassed last game, which was mostly an anomaly considering theyve been mostly competitive in conference. Looking for them to bring a really bring a strong defensive effort coming off that, and bowling green is a team I think they can defend well. BG's best when they're making 3's, which akron has only been allowing at a 28% clip in conference play. The 1st game came down to basically a buzzer beater so akron already played them well on the road. Feeling this bounceback spot.
1.05 / 1
Butler -4 vs. xavier
Putting some trust in the books, they've been overly high on Butler this year but here we are, March 5th. Two teams going different directions clearly. Yet books still sticking with them in this spot. So I will too. Recent form isn't everything and xavier isn't invincibable all of a sudden. Butler was on up 10 with less than 4 to play in the 1st meeting. Xavier crushed on the offensive glass that game. They are certainly capable of that again, but Butler rates out as a very solid defensive rebounding team on the season, so could be less 2nd chance points for xavier this time. I do believe Butler will come to play here.
1.15 / 1
Kentucky -5 @ ole miss
Lost basically this same bet last week with Tenn, obviously Ole Miss is a competitive bunch and desperate again after another choke last game. Ultimately, I just don't see ole miss beating a focused kentucky team and still view them as a significantly lesser squad that has to play above themselves to hang with top teams. Will take my chances with the number.
Looking into the numbers of how Ole Miss was able to nearly knock off Tenn, Tenn managed only 3 made 3's on only 13 attempts, and they only managed 4 offensive boards. On the season, Ole Miss is not a strong rebounding team, and have allowed teams to make a high % of 3's. Even without Travis, who clearly they are missing, and just in general not being a major 3 pt shooting team, Kentucks should still surpass those numbers, possibly significantly. I think this is a game they won't miss Travis quite as much. Ole Miss needs big games from both their good guards but Hagans a good bet to slow one of them down. Coming off a collective team bedsh*t performance, looking for Kentucks to come to play here and pull away enough to cover.
gl on the action