it’s the annual primer and this year carries the highest sensitivity and potential impact ever. I won’t be placing future wagers on all conferences, it those that I do bet will be within this thread. Individual bets on games will be in daily threads..
Atlantic Sun - PASS
I won’t take Lipscomb at -250 and not willing to throw darts on another team making a run. It will be interesting how the Committee handles Lipscomb if they don’t win this. They deserve to be in the field as an at large if they don’t get the automatic bid
it’s the annual primer and this year carries the highest sensitivity and potential impact ever. I won’t be placing future wagers on all conferences, it those that I do bet will be within this thread. Individual bets on games will be in daily threads..
Atlantic Sun - PASS
I won’t take Lipscomb at -250 and not willing to throw darts on another team making a run. It will be interesting how the Committee handles Lipscomb if they don’t win this. They deserve to be in the field as an at large if they don’t get the automatic bid
While it would be great to see Chris Clemons lead the Fighting Camels in the Big Dance, the overall team balance on Radford should be too much for Clemons to overcome a third time this season. I do expect these two to meet in the finals, which should be a real treat for college hoops fans - individual talent who had led his team all season (and his entire career) vs. a well balanced team with more skill.
Patriot - Lehigh +400 (2 units)
Colgate is the #1 seed and, on paper, the favorite. Buck bell is the most publicly known team given recent team success against power conference teams. But while Colgate has won 8 in a row heading into this tournament, only two games were against teams with winning records. I think they are overrated and don’t warrant a sub-even money line to win. Lehigh has the best road record in the league and with games being played on campus sites, I think they are worth a shot at 4-1. Good value here.
Horizon - Northern Kentucky +125 (8 units)
Decent sized wager on what I feel is the class of the conference. And I don’t think it’s as close as record indicate. Wright State is decent, but I think the Norse catch a break by an early exit by Wright State. Another higher ranked seed that I think is overrated. An upset is coming and I’ll be investing in that....
While it would be great to see Chris Clemons lead the Fighting Camels in the Big Dance, the overall team balance on Radford should be too much for Clemons to overcome a third time this season. I do expect these two to meet in the finals, which should be a real treat for college hoops fans - individual talent who had led his team all season (and his entire career) vs. a well balanced team with more skill.
Patriot - Lehigh +400 (2 units)
Colgate is the #1 seed and, on paper, the favorite. Buck bell is the most publicly known team given recent team success against power conference teams. But while Colgate has won 8 in a row heading into this tournament, only two games were against teams with winning records. I think they are overrated and don’t warrant a sub-even money line to win. Lehigh has the best road record in the league and with games being played on campus sites, I think they are worth a shot at 4-1. Good value here.
Horizon - Northern Kentucky +125 (8 units)
Decent sized wager on what I feel is the class of the conference. And I don’t think it’s as close as record indicate. Wright State is decent, but I think the Norse catch a break by an early exit by Wright State. Another higher ranked seed that I think is overrated. An upset is coming and I’ll be investing in that....
Johnny - will be in daily posts if and when I fade away on Colgate
Northeast - PASS
I don’t follow this league that much, but all teams seem very similar, which makes picking a winner like throwing darts with a blindfold
Summit - PASS
I want to see SoDakSt win this and get back to the tournament because they will be dangerous. But I’m not going to lay -300
Ohio Valley - Jacksonville State +600 (2 units)
Belmont has the public recognition given recent success and knocking off power conference teams. Murray State has the best player and eventual NBA lottery pick. Money is likely to flow in on one of these two teams, but at 6-1, Jax State is worth a look. Consider this, they went 3-0 this season against Belmont and Murray State. Also, they traveled to Evansville (host city for tournament) this season already, so likely have more of a comfort than other teams. They lost by four @ Wichita State and two @ West Virginia. They aren’t known because of a stud talent nor will the public have any idea who they are and oddsmakers know this. They can set a 6-1 knowing very few hands will reach out and grab this line. At something lower, say 3-1, more people will take notice and wonder who JaxSt is. Now they continue on in obscurity...
Johnny - will be in daily posts if and when I fade away on Colgate
Northeast - PASS
I don’t follow this league that much, but all teams seem very similar, which makes picking a winner like throwing darts with a blindfold
Summit - PASS
I want to see SoDakSt win this and get back to the tournament because they will be dangerous. But I’m not going to lay -300
Ohio Valley - Jacksonville State +600 (2 units)
Belmont has the public recognition given recent success and knocking off power conference teams. Murray State has the best player and eventual NBA lottery pick. Money is likely to flow in on one of these two teams, but at 6-1, Jax State is worth a look. Consider this, they went 3-0 this season against Belmont and Murray State. Also, they traveled to Evansville (host city for tournament) this season already, so likely have more of a comfort than other teams. They lost by four @ Wichita State and two @ West Virginia. They aren’t known because of a stud talent nor will the public have any idea who they are and oddsmakers know this. They can set a 6-1 knowing very few hands will reach out and grab this line. At something lower, say 3-1, more people will take notice and wonder who JaxSt is. Now they continue on in obscurity...
KC - Wichita State is playing real well yet still under the radar ficen all the attention given to Houston, Cincy and CentFla. I think value on the Shockers will be worth a look, but waiting for the bracket to finalize. Good look ahead, thanks man
MAAC - PASS (just for now....)
Have a lean here, but want to see how the quarterfinals look before deciding to move forward. Odds shouldn’t change too much. This conference has been a model of consistency, and not in a good way. Iona is riding high after a sluggish start, but winning this would equate to a 10 game winning streak and I’m not sure they are that consistent to make that happen.
West Coast - PASS
Missouri Valley - PASS (just for now...)
Same thought as the MAAC - Arch Madness usually gets wild and this year there should be even more mayhem. Odds won’t move to much with the result of play in games, so sitting tight for now
KC - Wichita State is playing real well yet still under the radar ficen all the attention given to Houston, Cincy and CentFla. I think value on the Shockers will be worth a look, but waiting for the bracket to finalize. Good look ahead, thanks man
MAAC - PASS (just for now....)
Have a lean here, but want to see how the quarterfinals look before deciding to move forward. Odds shouldn’t change too much. This conference has been a model of consistency, and not in a good way. Iona is riding high after a sluggish start, but winning this would equate to a 10 game winning streak and I’m not sure they are that consistent to make that happen.
West Coast - PASS
Missouri Valley - PASS (just for now...)
Same thought as the MAAC - Arch Madness usually gets wild and this year there should be even more mayhem. Odds won’t move to much with the result of play in games, so sitting tight for now
Three conferences had the projected winner at greater than 50% probability - Southern (Wofford), Summit (South Dakota State) and MAAC (Buffalo). Wofford is at -105 to win while SoDakSt was north of -200. MAC odds aren’t up yet, but I expect buffalo to be somewhere in the middle. This just highlights how good the Southern conference is, well, how good the other three contenders are. Wofford ran the table and really only had a few narrow escapes, but ETSU, Furman and UNC Greensboro all had great seasons as evidenced by them all sitting at about 3:1 to win the SoCon. Wofford’s road to the finals might be a bit more challenging than Furman and UNC Greensboro, and those are the two I’m mulling over. Wofford smoked Greensboro twice in the regular season, and while the venue is in NC, it’s closer to Wofford’s campus meaning they likely will have a greater fan base. Will need some time to think on this one might back Wofford and their dominance but might take a shot at 3:1. Just don’t think if that value is enough to bet against Wofford
Three conferences had the projected winner at greater than 50% probability - Southern (Wofford), Summit (South Dakota State) and MAAC (Buffalo). Wofford is at -105 to win while SoDakSt was north of -200. MAC odds aren’t up yet, but I expect buffalo to be somewhere in the middle. This just highlights how good the Southern conference is, well, how good the other three contenders are. Wofford ran the table and really only had a few narrow escapes, but ETSU, Furman and UNC Greensboro all had great seasons as evidenced by them all sitting at about 3:1 to win the SoCon. Wofford’s road to the finals might be a bit more challenging than Furman and UNC Greensboro, and those are the two I’m mulling over. Wofford smoked Greensboro twice in the regular season, and while the venue is in NC, it’s closer to Wofford’s campus meaning they likely will have a greater fan base. Will need some time to think on this one might back Wofford and their dominance but might take a shot at 3:1. Just don’t think if that value is enough to bet against Wofford
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