This will be my second year betting baseball and I'd like to pick the brains of the guys here that bet on baseball. Here are the questions I have
I hear many handicappers on radio shows and betting apps talk about betting the first five innings. And is this really a smart bet overall? It seems you have two things working against you. These are
Losing a whole game that can win for this abbreviated game, really seems like a lot of risk
How much differrence is there in price betting a five inning game as compared to the whole game...it seems like you would have what would be almost un-bettable prices.
Any logic or opinions you have on this will really be appreciated. Thank you all!
This will be my second year betting baseball and I'd like to pick the brains of the guys here that bet on baseball. Here are the questions I have
I hear many handicappers on radio shows and betting apps talk about betting the first five innings. And is this really a smart bet overall? It seems you have two things working against you. These are
Losing a whole game that can win for this abbreviated game, really seems like a lot of risk
How much differrence is there in price betting a five inning game as compared to the whole game...it seems like you would have what would be almost un-bettable prices.
Any logic or opinions you have on this will really be appreciated. Thank you all!
It will cost you a nickel up or down, but if you have a strong starter and weak bullpen it is the only way to go. Strong starter plus strong pen, you probably get better money on the full game line.
It is also wiser to play a home team on the run line with a 5 inning favorite, instead of full game, if you like a run line wager. You know for sure the home team will bat in the bottom of the fifth, but if leading by one after 8.5, that's it, you lose.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
It will cost you a nickel up or down, but if you have a strong starter and weak bullpen it is the only way to go. Strong starter plus strong pen, you probably get better money on the full game line.
It is also wiser to play a home team on the run line with a 5 inning favorite, instead of full game, if you like a run line wager. You know for sure the home team will bat in the bottom of the fifth, but if leading by one after 8.5, that's it, you lose.
If you do take the 1st 5 inning line, in this day in age it better be a starter who does go 5 innings plus. Over the last couple years the amount of 4 to 5 inning guys has increased. Some teams will pull the starter before the 5th inning even if he's in the 70's with pitch count. Just keep an eye on what teams tend to do that, and with which pitchers.
If you do take the 1st 5 inning line, in this day in age it better be a starter who does go 5 innings plus. Over the last couple years the amount of 4 to 5 inning guys has increased. Some teams will pull the starter before the 5th inning even if he's in the 70's with pitch count. Just keep an eye on what teams tend to do that, and with which pitchers.
I love betting the five inning props especially with teams that have a terrible bullpen. Also, look to bet games with the under first five innings with two really good starters. I use to crush it last year whenever the dodgers play the giants especially in SF ball game, pitcher park and not hitter friendly.
I love betting the five inning props especially with teams that have a terrible bullpen. Also, look to bet games with the under first five innings with two really good starters. I use to crush it last year whenever the dodgers play the giants especially in SF ball game, pitcher park and not hitter friendly.
I track pitchers. Last year Blake Snell was money as he won almost 77% of his F5. Homer Baily was a great fade (albeit somewhat of a shortened season for him) as he lost almost 89% of his F5. I track o/u's, rl's and ml's for all starting pitchers. Not too mention (as part of the o/u's) runs for and runs against for each pitcher.
I track pitchers. Last year Blake Snell was money as he won almost 77% of his F5. Homer Baily was a great fade (albeit somewhat of a shortened season for him) as he lost almost 89% of his F5. I track o/u's, rl's and ml's for all starting pitchers. Not too mention (as part of the o/u's) runs for and runs against for each pitcher.
The risk issue that you mention is not true. There is much more risk of getting to the 6th+ inning, and not being certain of the decisions that the manager will make with the bullpen. The perfect example of this is Dave Roberts. Damn, does that guy love blowing up games with shitty decisions. The same with Snitker and my Braves, when he insisted with AJ Minter to close regardless if he was going to face 3 right handed batters and he had not used Winkler. Lets hope Vizcaino coming back helps us this year and opens up Snitker´s eyes to see that Minter is as good as there is against lefties.
Anyways, 1st five innings, you know who the starting pitcher is, and which batters will he face. You can see how those batters deal against your type of pitcher (left/right; fastball/breaking ball). You can handicap in the most math/stat approachable sport out there.
So, 5 innings and then handicapping live is my way to go.
However, sometimes you may find value on the full game line. When your team´s bullpen is much better. When it has a competent manager (As, Brewers, Rays...), and when the lineup is deeper. There are teams such as the Red Sox, where all the meat is juiced up in the first 5 bats. That is a great team to bet the 1st inning, or in play anytime they are coming to bat. But when their top guys have one or less turns at bat for the rest of the game, I actually made money betting against them.
The risk issue that you mention is not true. There is much more risk of getting to the 6th+ inning, and not being certain of the decisions that the manager will make with the bullpen. The perfect example of this is Dave Roberts. Damn, does that guy love blowing up games with shitty decisions. The same with Snitker and my Braves, when he insisted with AJ Minter to close regardless if he was going to face 3 right handed batters and he had not used Winkler. Lets hope Vizcaino coming back helps us this year and opens up Snitker´s eyes to see that Minter is as good as there is against lefties.
Anyways, 1st five innings, you know who the starting pitcher is, and which batters will he face. You can see how those batters deal against your type of pitcher (left/right; fastball/breaking ball). You can handicap in the most math/stat approachable sport out there.
So, 5 innings and then handicapping live is my way to go.
However, sometimes you may find value on the full game line. When your team´s bullpen is much better. When it has a competent manager (As, Brewers, Rays...), and when the lineup is deeper. There are teams such as the Red Sox, where all the meat is juiced up in the first 5 bats. That is a great team to bet the 1st inning, or in play anytime they are coming to bat. But when their top guys have one or less turns at bat for the rest of the game, I actually made money betting against them.
I want to thank those that took the time to reply. Your advice is really appreciated and this season if the chance occurs to hit on some 5 inning bets I am sure what I read will be helpful.
I want to thank those that took the time to reply. Your advice is really appreciated and this season if the chance occurs to hit on some 5 inning bets I am sure what I read will be helpful.
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