Quote Originally Posted by NinjaNight:
Thank you for a nice discussion. I'm fed up with the retarded negativity.
So, I noticed someone point out in some other thread that this used to be the case with Andy Reid but not anymore.
He used to be something like 16-0 coming off a bye week, but after leaving Philadelphia he's only 4-4 or 3-4, something like that.
What I think this means in combination with KC's super potent offense is that KC will get off to a great start and the game at some point may look hopeless for the Colts.
Andy Reid's achilles heel is giving up late comebacks in his career. The Chargers showed it's still a huge problem earlier this year when they had an amazing comeback to take them down in KC.
I look for Andrew Luck to potentially do the same thing in this game. He's ready. However in this case I suspect KC wins and Colts bareeeely come back and cover.
Ah, that's good to know. It's probably regression again. However, it would seem that Reid is a person who does well when given the time to plan. I also have heard/read that he is the best at scripting opening offensive drives.
However, it seems that what hurts him is the ability to react and adjust to things that upend his plans in-game. I actually have this problem myself in other facets of life. Some people are really good at thinking on their toes while others are good when they have their feet set.
Ironically, Mahomes seems to be good at both. Maybe this young, yet advanced, QB masks his head coach's deficiencies as an in-game tactician. Before this year, Alex Smith was Reid's QB who was known as a game manager (e.g., conservative). Having a conservative QB who plays more to not lose may have resulted in Reid's recent downwards trend in his record coming off a bye and his record playing at Arrowhead.
While it is public perception that Arrowhead is one of the toughest places to play, I think I read in another Covers thread where Reid's last 4 or 5 home playoff games did not really help Reid's performance. Maybe that's because of Alex Smith or maybe that's because of Reid's inability to adjust on the fly. In either case, it would seem that Mahomes is a totally different variable that may debunk a lot of trends which many betters may be relying on.
I'm already on Colts +6 as per your system, Ninja, and also due to LeagueCapper being on them. I also like the dog playoff record (I think 13-3 or 13-1 in the last 16 or 14 games, I forget exactly). However, what unnerves me and may cause me to buy out is that it seems that the public is all betting the dogs even though they are all playing on the road after last week's performance.