Starting a thread so I can track my system I have been playing for a few years. Genuinely curious to see how it performs. Ill make 2 unit bets (most of the time) on spreads and 1/2 unit bets on ML plays. I posted a thread accidently in the college football forum yesterday to start this off so I am going to roll that over into this one. Proof of that thread here:
System performs best when confrence play kicks into full gear, thats why im starting it now. Typically only a play or two a night and a few more on saturday/sunday. Yesterdays plays of Maryland and West Vag gave me a mild heart attack, but was able to get lucky in the end game to pull a small profit.
Starting a thread so I can track my system I have been playing for a few years. Genuinely curious to see how it performs. Ill make 2 unit bets (most of the time) on spreads and 1/2 unit bets on ML plays. I posted a thread accidently in the college football forum yesterday to start this off so I am going to roll that over into this one. Proof of that thread here:
System performs best when confrence play kicks into full gear, thats why im starting it now. Typically only a play or two a night and a few more on saturday/sunday. Yesterdays plays of Maryland and West Vag gave me a mild heart attack, but was able to get lucky in the end game to pull a small profit.
I am not 100% sure the system but these are all home dogs except the Miami play. Interesting. For sure value there in conference play. BOL
That is correct. Play home dogs (or short favorites) vs ranked opponents. Built on the premise of higher motivation and I feel home court is undervalued in market place. Usually restrict it to conference play where opponent knowledge comes into play. Scrub conferences can be played at desecration....i.e. against Gonzaga, Buffalo, Nevada. Missed posting a few, but i got a separate spreadsheet going that has all the plays. Wanted to seriously document, but not going to count anything on here I didn't post.
I am not 100% sure the system but these are all home dogs except the Miami play. Interesting. For sure value there in conference play. BOL
That is correct. Play home dogs (or short favorites) vs ranked opponents. Built on the premise of higher motivation and I feel home court is undervalued in market place. Usually restrict it to conference play where opponent knowledge comes into play. Scrub conferences can be played at desecration....i.e. against Gonzaga, Buffalo, Nevada. Missed posting a few, but i got a separate spreadsheet going that has all the plays. Wanted to seriously document, but not going to count anything on here I didn't post.
Starting a thread so I can track my system I have been playing for a few years. Genuinely curious to see how it performs. Ill make 2 unit bets (most of the time) on spreads and 1/2 unit bets on ML plays. I posted a thread accidently in the college football forum yesterday to start this off so I am going to roll that over into this one. Proof of that thread here:
If you have been playing this system for a few years, how has it been doing for you? Why do you need a thread to see how it performs? Has it been profitable ? If you are still using it, it must be ? Just genuinely curious... thnx!
Starting a thread so I can track my system I have been playing for a few years. Genuinely curious to see how it performs. Ill make 2 unit bets (most of the time) on spreads and 1/2 unit bets on ML plays. I posted a thread accidently in the college football forum yesterday to start this off so I am going to roll that over into this one. Proof of that thread here:
If you have been playing this system for a few years, how has it been doing for you? Why do you need a thread to see how it performs? Has it been profitable ? If you are still using it, it must be ? Just genuinely curious... thnx!
Starting a thread so I can track my system I have been playing for a few years. Genuinely curious to see how it performs. Ill make 2 unit bets (most of the time) on spreads and 1/2 unit bets on ML plays. I posted a thread accidently in the college football forum yesterday to start this off so I am going to roll that over into this one. Proof of that thread here: If you have been playing this system for a few years, how has it been doing for you? Why do you need a thread to see how it performs? Has it been profitable ? If you are still using it, it must be ? Just genuinely curious... thnx!
I never tracked it exactly. I just bet it when I remembered or had time. If I have a thread going it makes me remember to bet it and track it. Undermysac was on me to do this last year but I never did it, so I told him I would give it a go this year. Plus it might help some people out?
It honestly seemed to be profitable. So far this year it has been. My posted record is -0.84 but the spreadsheet I am using to track the plays I forgot to bet or forgot to post says +3.49. I would be more than happy to share that spreadsheet to anyone interested.
Sagarin gives 3.13 points to home court. I truly believe that its worth double that if not more, especially when a high profile ranked team comes in and the crowd is rocking.
Starting a thread so I can track my system I have been playing for a few years. Genuinely curious to see how it performs. Ill make 2 unit bets (most of the time) on spreads and 1/2 unit bets on ML plays. I posted a thread accidently in the college football forum yesterday to start this off so I am going to roll that over into this one. Proof of that thread here: If you have been playing this system for a few years, how has it been doing for you? Why do you need a thread to see how it performs? Has it been profitable ? If you are still using it, it must be ? Just genuinely curious... thnx!
I never tracked it exactly. I just bet it when I remembered or had time. If I have a thread going it makes me remember to bet it and track it. Undermysac was on me to do this last year but I never did it, so I told him I would give it a go this year. Plus it might help some people out?
It honestly seemed to be profitable. So far this year it has been. My posted record is -0.84 but the spreadsheet I am using to track the plays I forgot to bet or forgot to post says +3.49. I would be more than happy to share that spreadsheet to anyone interested.
Sagarin gives 3.13 points to home court. I truly believe that its worth double that if not more, especially when a high profile ranked team comes in and the crowd is rocking.
I am not 100% sure the system but these are all home dogs except the Miami play. Interesting. For sure value there in conference play. BOL
That is correct. Play home dogs (or short favorites) vs ranked opponents. Built on the premise of higher motivation and I feel home court is undervalued in market place. Usually restrict it to conference play where opponent knowledge comes into play. Scrub conferences can be played at desecration....i.e. against Gonzaga, Buffalo, Nevada. Missed posting a few, but i got a separate spreadsheet going that has all the plays. Wanted to seriously document, but not going to count anything on here I didn't post.
Nice, I like that a lot. Should be a profitable year. P5 conferences all seem evenly solid, except PAC12, good luck betting that "conference of champions" I will keep up with this no doubt! Best of luck.
I am not 100% sure the system but these are all home dogs except the Miami play. Interesting. For sure value there in conference play. BOL
That is correct. Play home dogs (or short favorites) vs ranked opponents. Built on the premise of higher motivation and I feel home court is undervalued in market place. Usually restrict it to conference play where opponent knowledge comes into play. Scrub conferences can be played at desecration....i.e. against Gonzaga, Buffalo, Nevada. Missed posting a few, but i got a separate spreadsheet going that has all the plays. Wanted to seriously document, but not going to count anything on here I didn't post.
Nice, I like that a lot. Should be a profitable year. P5 conferences all seem evenly solid, except PAC12, good luck betting that "conference of champions" I will keep up with this no doubt! Best of luck.
@BSpalding... No doubt appreciate it. That is the other thing. These power conferences are all stacked with solid talent. Also can't forget the biased refs who favor the home team.
@BSpalding... No doubt appreciate it. That is the other thing. These power conferences are all stacked with solid talent. Also can't forget the biased refs who favor the home team.
System heating up. 7-2 last night. Tech almost stole one there but came up short. Lets keep it rolling
Record:
All plays are now kept in a spreadsheet so it will be accurate from now on. Found some errors but should be all fixed now. Again willing to share the spreadsheet (not sure best way to do so, it is in excel) if anyone is interested.
Sides (9-6-1) +4.4
ML (5-5) +1.34
Total +5.74
Plays:
Another tough bet and as sac previewed in last post....I hate the Illini. Also hate Champaign. Was forced to work there for a few weeks and can't say I enjoyed it except for the Silver Bullet. Also I could be wrong but I think the Brad Underwood experiment is going to end badly. So with that said...
Illinois +9.5 (-115) 2/1.74
Illinois ML (+350) 0.5/1.75
What's up with the books jamming me with -115 vig on every bet They are on to my betting tendencies. Time to re-up on BOL.
System heating up. 7-2 last night. Tech almost stole one there but came up short. Lets keep it rolling
Record:
All plays are now kept in a spreadsheet so it will be accurate from now on. Found some errors but should be all fixed now. Again willing to share the spreadsheet (not sure best way to do so, it is in excel) if anyone is interested.
Sides (9-6-1) +4.4
ML (5-5) +1.34
Total +5.74
Plays:
Another tough bet and as sac previewed in last post....I hate the Illini. Also hate Champaign. Was forced to work there for a few weeks and can't say I enjoyed it except for the Silver Bullet. Also I could be wrong but I think the Brad Underwood experiment is going to end badly. So with that said...
Illinois +9.5 (-115) 2/1.74
Illinois ML (+350) 0.5/1.75
What's up with the books jamming me with -115 vig on every bet They are on to my betting tendencies. Time to re-up on BOL.
IL is super athletic and will be able to match Michigan's team speed. My biggest concern is how bad they have played in the 2H. We will see. Your line move comment makes me like this bet even more.
IL is super athletic and will be able to match Michigan's team speed. My biggest concern is how bad they have played in the 2H. We will see. Your line move comment makes me like this bet even more.
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