Basically split all of the games in the first round...got double screwed with the Cowboys -2.5 and UNDER...but it happens. Moving on to the next round!
Basically split all of the games in the first round...got double screwed with the Cowboys -2.5 and UNDER...but it happens. Moving on to the next round!
Indianapolis vs Kansas City Projected: KC -4.5 O/U 52 Actual: KC -5.5 O/U 57
Pretty close on the spread, not really that close on the total. Indianapolis has the best scoring defense in the league over the past couple months, and the Kansas City Chiefs have stumbled a bit once the colder weather rolled in going 3-3 over their last 6 games. Initial look would be for the UNDER here...initially capped it out at 28-24 for the Chiefs. Most interesting story line that I'll be looking forward to is if the Chiefs can actually win a home playoff game for the first time in 25 years. Andrew Luck has been there before, Patrick Mahomes has not. In the first round of the playoffs there were three quarterbacks that got their first playoff start (Trubisky, Watson, and Jackson). Not only did all three lose, but they all looked pretty terrible. Do we really think that Patrick Mahomes is going to be that much different? All three first-time QB's were at home as well, so they were in an ideal situation to be able to get a win. Kansas City's defense needs to have the lead so that they can be super aggressive...and they do allow a ton of passing yards. Strength of the Chiefs defense is up front. I like this one to overall be close throughout...the Colts defense is good enough and fast enough to keep up with the speed of the Chiefs. Andrew Luck hasn't been making mistakes in this hot streak either, so everything the Chiefs get will be earned.
Lean: Colts +5.5 Under 57 Prediction: Chiefs 27 Colts 24
Indianapolis vs Kansas City Projected: KC -4.5 O/U 52 Actual: KC -5.5 O/U 57
Pretty close on the spread, not really that close on the total. Indianapolis has the best scoring defense in the league over the past couple months, and the Kansas City Chiefs have stumbled a bit once the colder weather rolled in going 3-3 over their last 6 games. Initial look would be for the UNDER here...initially capped it out at 28-24 for the Chiefs. Most interesting story line that I'll be looking forward to is if the Chiefs can actually win a home playoff game for the first time in 25 years. Andrew Luck has been there before, Patrick Mahomes has not. In the first round of the playoffs there were three quarterbacks that got their first playoff start (Trubisky, Watson, and Jackson). Not only did all three lose, but they all looked pretty terrible. Do we really think that Patrick Mahomes is going to be that much different? All three first-time QB's were at home as well, so they were in an ideal situation to be able to get a win. Kansas City's defense needs to have the lead so that they can be super aggressive...and they do allow a ton of passing yards. Strength of the Chiefs defense is up front. I like this one to overall be close throughout...the Colts defense is good enough and fast enough to keep up with the speed of the Chiefs. Andrew Luck hasn't been making mistakes in this hot streak either, so everything the Chiefs get will be earned.
Lean: Colts +5.5 Under 57 Prediction: Chiefs 27 Colts 24
Dallas vs LA Rams Projection: LA Rams -3.5 O/U 49.5 Actual: LA Rams -7 O/U 49
Surprised to see this one that high. Cowboys will essentially be playing a home away from home game in this one. They've had their training camps in Southern California for a couple decades now, so there is a solid base there. The Rams haven't really had much of a home field advantage despite being 7-1 SU they were only 3-4-1 ATS with a couple of those wins coming against very weak Arizona early in the season, and a final week win against the Niners where they gave up 32 points. As I've said a dozen times before, the Cowboys need to have the game go a very specific way in order to win. They need to score first...kicked a field goal early against the Seahawks and were able to get Zeke running. They need to win the time of possession battle...but they are middle of the road in that stat when they are playing away from home. Rams run defense isn't very strong, so that's obviously where the Cowboys will want to attack...but the Rams are very good on 3rd down which I believe will have a bigger impact on this game. The Dallas Cowboys had the 6th most 3rd downs on offense in the NFL this season, and the 3rd most on the road. Even with Amari Cooper, this is still not a big play offense. They grind you down and get smaller chunk plays. I'm having a hard time turning off my hatred for the Cowboys and their delusional fan base in capping this one...but I do believe that 7 points might actually be a bit too much. Really solid line and total...gonna be a tough one.
Lean: Cowboys +7 OVER 49 Prediction: Rams 33 Cowboys 28
Dallas vs LA Rams Projection: LA Rams -3.5 O/U 49.5 Actual: LA Rams -7 O/U 49
Surprised to see this one that high. Cowboys will essentially be playing a home away from home game in this one. They've had their training camps in Southern California for a couple decades now, so there is a solid base there. The Rams haven't really had much of a home field advantage despite being 7-1 SU they were only 3-4-1 ATS with a couple of those wins coming against very weak Arizona early in the season, and a final week win against the Niners where they gave up 32 points. As I've said a dozen times before, the Cowboys need to have the game go a very specific way in order to win. They need to score first...kicked a field goal early against the Seahawks and were able to get Zeke running. They need to win the time of possession battle...but they are middle of the road in that stat when they are playing away from home. Rams run defense isn't very strong, so that's obviously where the Cowboys will want to attack...but the Rams are very good on 3rd down which I believe will have a bigger impact on this game. The Dallas Cowboys had the 6th most 3rd downs on offense in the NFL this season, and the 3rd most on the road. Even with Amari Cooper, this is still not a big play offense. They grind you down and get smaller chunk plays. I'm having a hard time turning off my hatred for the Cowboys and their delusional fan base in capping this one...but I do believe that 7 points might actually be a bit too much. Really solid line and total...gonna be a tough one.
Lean: Cowboys +7 OVER 49 Prediction: Rams 33 Cowboys 28
Some nice analysis on this weekends games. There are a couple of area's where I think you might be off.
Colts scoring 22 points - Kansas City's defense has not been able to stop decent offenses this year and Luck and the Colts have found their groove. I will be all over the INDY Team Total at anything less than 27 1/2 points. Expect the team totals to be KC 31.5 and INDY 27.5
Cowboys scoring 28 points - Dallas struggles to score points on the road and with Hurns out and Beasley hobbled, I think the only chance Dallas has is to control the game clock with their ground game.
I would reverse those projected scores with Dallas at 22 and INDY at 28....BOL this weekend!!!
Some nice analysis on this weekends games. There are a couple of area's where I think you might be off.
Colts scoring 22 points - Kansas City's defense has not been able to stop decent offenses this year and Luck and the Colts have found their groove. I will be all over the INDY Team Total at anything less than 27 1/2 points. Expect the team totals to be KC 31.5 and INDY 27.5
Cowboys scoring 28 points - Dallas struggles to score points on the road and with Hurns out and Beasley hobbled, I think the only chance Dallas has is to control the game clock with their ground game.
I would reverse those projected scores with Dallas at 22 and INDY at 28....BOL this weekend!!!
LA Chargers vs New England Projected: NE -4 O/U 46 Actual: NE -4 O/U 45.5
Finally to the point where the New England Patriots season starts. This is where they buckle down, put in the perfect gameplan to shut down the Chargers passing offense. The Patriots secondary is the best part of this team heading into the playoffs...and the healthiest as most reports have Devin McCourty being good to go. Patriots are undefeated at home this season, and the Chargers are undefeated outside the state of California...so we have conflicting streaks which is always fun. I've said it a couple times this year, and knowing the Patriots more than any other team having lived here for the entirety of the Tom Brady era, this is a game that they win. They don't let teams like the Chargers (warm weather, relatively one-dimensional with the RB injuries) come into Foxboro in January and win. Taking a look back at the Wild Card round game against the Ravens, the Chargers should have won that game by a good amount, but let them hang around in the 2nd half, and ultimately have a chance to win the game at the end. If it wasn't for Lamar Jackson's mistakes, they would have lost that game. Do you see Tom Brady fumbling three times and throwing interceptions? Everything that the Patriots do well translates into the playoffs. They have a top 10 rushing attack with Sony Michel/James White/Rex Burkhead. They have a top 10 scoring defense. They don't turn the ball over being in the top 10 in giveaways per game. They don't have stupid penalties...top 10 in penalties as well. The Chargers defense isn't bad by any means...middle of the road essentially in most areas. But they are in the bottom third of the league in penalties...and they aren't anything special in turnovers. Finally...the weather. That's the biggest factor in the game. It's gonna be cold and probably snowing. That moves the needle big time in the Patriots favor. This is a game they win...it'll be relatively convincing as well.
Lean: Patriots -4 UNDER 45.5 Prediction: Patriots 24 Chargers 16
LA Chargers vs New England Projected: NE -4 O/U 46 Actual: NE -4 O/U 45.5
Finally to the point where the New England Patriots season starts. This is where they buckle down, put in the perfect gameplan to shut down the Chargers passing offense. The Patriots secondary is the best part of this team heading into the playoffs...and the healthiest as most reports have Devin McCourty being good to go. Patriots are undefeated at home this season, and the Chargers are undefeated outside the state of California...so we have conflicting streaks which is always fun. I've said it a couple times this year, and knowing the Patriots more than any other team having lived here for the entirety of the Tom Brady era, this is a game that they win. They don't let teams like the Chargers (warm weather, relatively one-dimensional with the RB injuries) come into Foxboro in January and win. Taking a look back at the Wild Card round game against the Ravens, the Chargers should have won that game by a good amount, but let them hang around in the 2nd half, and ultimately have a chance to win the game at the end. If it wasn't for Lamar Jackson's mistakes, they would have lost that game. Do you see Tom Brady fumbling three times and throwing interceptions? Everything that the Patriots do well translates into the playoffs. They have a top 10 rushing attack with Sony Michel/James White/Rex Burkhead. They have a top 10 scoring defense. They don't turn the ball over being in the top 10 in giveaways per game. They don't have stupid penalties...top 10 in penalties as well. The Chargers defense isn't bad by any means...middle of the road essentially in most areas. But they are in the bottom third of the league in penalties...and they aren't anything special in turnovers. Finally...the weather. That's the biggest factor in the game. It's gonna be cold and probably snowing. That moves the needle big time in the Patriots favor. This is a game they win...it'll be relatively convincing as well.
Lean: Patriots -4 UNDER 45.5 Prediction: Patriots 24 Chargers 16
Some nice analysis on this weekends games. There are a couple of area's where I think you might be off.Colts scoring 22 points - Kansas City's defense has not been able to stop decent offenses this year and Luck and the Colts have found their groove. I will be all over the INDY Team Total at anything less than 27 1/2 points. Expect the team totals to be KC 31.5 and INDY 27.5Cowboys scoring 28 points - Dallas struggles to score points on the road and with Hurns out and Beasley hobbled, I think the only chance Dallas has is to control the game clock with their ground game.I would reverse those projected scores with Dallas at 22 and INDY at 28....BOL this weekend!!!
Putting Dallas at 28 points because the Rams are in the bottom 5 in the league in yards per rush, so I expect Zeke to be able to break a few big runs. I also see the Rams playing pretty fast, which inevitably leads to more possessions and more chances to score. Dallas offense has put up 29 points per game in their last three games...so the potential is there.
Some nice analysis on this weekends games. There are a couple of area's where I think you might be off.Colts scoring 22 points - Kansas City's defense has not been able to stop decent offenses this year and Luck and the Colts have found their groove. I will be all over the INDY Team Total at anything less than 27 1/2 points. Expect the team totals to be KC 31.5 and INDY 27.5Cowboys scoring 28 points - Dallas struggles to score points on the road and with Hurns out and Beasley hobbled, I think the only chance Dallas has is to control the game clock with their ground game.I would reverse those projected scores with Dallas at 22 and INDY at 28....BOL this weekend!!!
Putting Dallas at 28 points because the Rams are in the bottom 5 in the league in yards per rush, so I expect Zeke to be able to break a few big runs. I also see the Rams playing pretty fast, which inevitably leads to more possessions and more chances to score. Dallas offense has put up 29 points per game in their last three games...so the potential is there.
Philadelphia vs New Orleans Projected: New Orleans -8 O/U 53.5 Actual: New Orleans -8 O/U 50.5
As much as I love the Big Dick Nick Foles saga...I see this one being a complete and utter blowout. The Saints are at home, where they routinely put up 35+ points. Taking out the final game of the season where they started Teddy Bridgewater they put up 30+ in 6 of 7 home games and averaged a total of 37 points per game. They have a week off, which helps out an older QB like Drew Brees as well as their offensive lineman that took the final week off to get healthy. Regular season matchup was 48-7 and although I don't think it'll be that much of a blowout, it won't be far off. Eagles were able to take advantage of a rookie QB in his first playoff game and the fact that the Bears were unable to get the ball in the endzone when they were able to put together a drive. Saints are #3 in the NFL is redzone TD % so that more than likely won't be gifted to them.
Lean: Saints -8 UNDER 50.5 Prediction: Saints 31 Eagles 13
Philadelphia vs New Orleans Projected: New Orleans -8 O/U 53.5 Actual: New Orleans -8 O/U 50.5
As much as I love the Big Dick Nick Foles saga...I see this one being a complete and utter blowout. The Saints are at home, where they routinely put up 35+ points. Taking out the final game of the season where they started Teddy Bridgewater they put up 30+ in 6 of 7 home games and averaged a total of 37 points per game. They have a week off, which helps out an older QB like Drew Brees as well as their offensive lineman that took the final week off to get healthy. Regular season matchup was 48-7 and although I don't think it'll be that much of a blowout, it won't be far off. Eagles were able to take advantage of a rookie QB in his first playoff game and the fact that the Bears were unable to get the ball in the endzone when they were able to put together a drive. Saints are #3 in the NFL is redzone TD % so that more than likely won't be gifted to them.
Lean: Saints -8 UNDER 50.5 Prediction: Saints 31 Eagles 13
1. Tom Brady 2. Drew Brees 3. Patrick Mahomes 4. Andrew Luck 5. Jared Goff 6. Phillip Rivers 7. Nick Foles 8. Dak Prescott
You're kidding with these QB ratings right ? Brady's one of the worst QBs in post season history he's played 38 post season game and you can count on 1 hand the # of QBs he's outplayed
Brady eliminated and outplayed by Sanchez Plumber Flaco in Division rounds even though his team was far better , two of those games were home games
Patriots won 3 Super Bowls with Brady throwing 5 INTs including a pick 6 , Patriots won another with him throwing for 120 yards the defense and special teams was responsible for all the points
Patriots lost two super bowl vs the Giants with Brady 0-13 -1 INT on ball 20 yards over the line of scrimmage
Patriots were a hair away from losing 5 super bowls in a row without bad coaching decisions forget about any dumb awards the Patriots QB play was horrible in all these games
The reason way the Patriots show up in all these playoff game is because for 18 years they are lucky enough to be in a division with Buffalo Miami and the Jets, playing these teams 6 times a year enables them every year to be 2 games away from a Super Bowl
The Patriots are 14 -5 with 3 1st time starting zero NFL experience QBS when Brady don't play two of them never played Division 1 college football
Patriots being set up every year usually to win just two home games to get to Superbowl the fact that they only won 5 is because of horrible QB play
He comes into this years playoffs as a below average QB from his regular season stats , his history is he plays worst in the playoffs this fact isn't even arguable why you would ever put him 1st out of 8 is stupid.
1. Tom Brady 2. Drew Brees 3. Patrick Mahomes 4. Andrew Luck 5. Jared Goff 6. Phillip Rivers 7. Nick Foles 8. Dak Prescott
You're kidding with these QB ratings right ? Brady's one of the worst QBs in post season history he's played 38 post season game and you can count on 1 hand the # of QBs he's outplayed
Brady eliminated and outplayed by Sanchez Plumber Flaco in Division rounds even though his team was far better , two of those games were home games
Patriots won 3 Super Bowls with Brady throwing 5 INTs including a pick 6 , Patriots won another with him throwing for 120 yards the defense and special teams was responsible for all the points
Patriots lost two super bowl vs the Giants with Brady 0-13 -1 INT on ball 20 yards over the line of scrimmage
Patriots were a hair away from losing 5 super bowls in a row without bad coaching decisions forget about any dumb awards the Patriots QB play was horrible in all these games
The reason way the Patriots show up in all these playoff game is because for 18 years they are lucky enough to be in a division with Buffalo Miami and the Jets, playing these teams 6 times a year enables them every year to be 2 games away from a Super Bowl
The Patriots are 14 -5 with 3 1st time starting zero NFL experience QBS when Brady don't play two of them never played Division 1 college football
Patriots being set up every year usually to win just two home games to get to Superbowl the fact that they only won 5 is because of horrible QB play
He comes into this years playoffs as a below average QB from his regular season stats , his history is he plays worst in the playoffs this fact isn't even arguable why you would ever put him 1st out of 8 is stupid.
Yes I do expect Mahomes to be way different than those other young QBs. Apples and oranges. This guy is so superior as an all around QB and clutch under pressure compared to them.
Yes I do expect Mahomes to be way different than those other young QBs. Apples and oranges. This guy is so superior as an all around QB and clutch under pressure compared to them.
Think sd comes in there and wins. U take a look at it, they are stellar in all sides of the ball. Plus I really think it’s rivers time to shine. Pats ain’t the same believe me.
Think sd comes in there and wins. U take a look at it, they are stellar in all sides of the ball. Plus I really think it’s rivers time to shine. Pats ain’t the same believe me.
Foles is 7-1 in the Playoffs is 1 for 1 in Super bowls he was underdog in most of these games Foles highest QB rating in Super Bowl history And you have him 7th great job
Clearly you must be a football savant. Nick Foles based on his 8 playoff games is clearly better right now heading into this weekend than Tom Brady. Shlt, I might as well just drop Brady behind Dak Prescott...Dak has only lost one playoff game in his career!!
Playoffs, in Foxboro, there is no QB I'd rather have than Tom Brady. He's 27-10 in the playoffs. He has 5 Super Bowls, and he's been to 8.
Foles is 7-1 in the Playoffs is 1 for 1 in Super bowls he was underdog in most of these games Foles highest QB rating in Super Bowl history And you have him 7th great job
Clearly you must be a football savant. Nick Foles based on his 8 playoff games is clearly better right now heading into this weekend than Tom Brady. Shlt, I might as well just drop Brady behind Dak Prescott...Dak has only lost one playoff game in his career!!
Playoffs, in Foxboro, there is no QB I'd rather have than Tom Brady. He's 27-10 in the playoffs. He has 5 Super Bowls, and he's been to 8.
I just honestly had to go back and re-read all the stupidity that was just thrown out there. Brady last year at age freakin 40 had 8 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in the playoffs...and went against the solid Titans defense and the beyond solid Jaguars defense.
If you would take Nick Foles over Brady/Brees/Luck/Mahomes/Rivers/Goff you are just beyond repair.
I just honestly had to go back and re-read all the stupidity that was just thrown out there. Brady last year at age freakin 40 had 8 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in the playoffs...and went against the solid Titans defense and the beyond solid Jaguars defense.
If you would take Nick Foles over Brady/Brees/Luck/Mahomes/Rivers/Goff you are just beyond repair.
hello. long time follower of your threads. you are a true sharp, & when we diverge you seem to be the one who is right.
so i was excited to bet the chargers come sunday until i read your post. thanks a lot.
i have to agree with the troll however. your angle on brady is all based on the past. what relevance does tom brady 2003, 2007 have to sundays game? nothing. Brady is a geriatric old man out there now. Do any passes go over 10 yards with him anymore?
wasnt it just a few weeks back that the pats headlines were dark & stormy? then they play the jets & now they're good to go. LOL.
I thought the chargers pass rush was impressive last week. Whats the thing that kills brady? Pass rush.
I smell an upset in foxboro. But GL on your other action otherwise.
hello. long time follower of your threads. you are a true sharp, & when we diverge you seem to be the one who is right.
so i was excited to bet the chargers come sunday until i read your post. thanks a lot.
i have to agree with the troll however. your angle on brady is all based on the past. what relevance does tom brady 2003, 2007 have to sundays game? nothing. Brady is a geriatric old man out there now. Do any passes go over 10 yards with him anymore?
wasnt it just a few weeks back that the pats headlines were dark & stormy? then they play the jets & now they're good to go. LOL.
I thought the chargers pass rush was impressive last week. Whats the thing that kills brady? Pass rush.
I smell an upset in foxboro. But GL on your other action otherwise.
However, I think this game is different for New England. Of course usually they're money in divisional round/beyond, but this is the weakest NE team we have seen in a while imo. The Chargers have more talent all around and a better defense. They have the pass rush to give Brady problems. They're also nearly undefeated on the road where they thrive. On paper I have to say Chargers hands down, but the Patriots with Brady & Belichick are always tough to take down especially at home and of course you want Brady over Rivers any day.
I'm thinking it's a close game and you either take the points with Chargers (maybe just avoid pre-game point spread) or live bet or tease one of the teams.
However, I think this game is different for New England. Of course usually they're money in divisional round/beyond, but this is the weakest NE team we have seen in a while imo. The Chargers have more talent all around and a better defense. They have the pass rush to give Brady problems. They're also nearly undefeated on the road where they thrive. On paper I have to say Chargers hands down, but the Patriots with Brady & Belichick are always tough to take down especially at home and of course you want Brady over Rivers any day.
I'm thinking it's a close game and you either take the points with Chargers (maybe just avoid pre-game point spread) or live bet or tease one of the teams.
This is absolutely the most talented teams the Chargers have had to try and come into Foxboro. This is also probably the weakest overall offense Brady has had in a while...but the defense and the running game are stronger than he's had in the past. Past couple years he's had the running backs, but they were mostly pass catchers (Dion Lewis, James White), this year with Sony Michel he finally has a bell cow back that he can hand off to 20 times a game.
This is absolutely the most talented teams the Chargers have had to try and come into Foxboro. This is also probably the weakest overall offense Brady has had in a while...but the defense and the running game are stronger than he's had in the past. Past couple years he's had the running backs, but they were mostly pass catchers (Dion Lewis, James White), this year with Sony Michel he finally has a bell cow back that he can hand off to 20 times a game.
This is absolutely the most talented teams the Chargers have had to try and come into Foxboro. This is also probably the weakest overall offense Brady has had in a while...but the defense and the running game are stronger than he's had in the past. Past couple years he's had the running backs, but they were mostly pass catchers (Dion Lewis, James White), this year with Sony Michel he finally has a bell cow back that he can hand off to 20 times a game.
Agreed on the running game, but DVOA says NE's defense is about exactly average. Any thoughts about that?
This is absolutely the most talented teams the Chargers have had to try and come into Foxboro. This is also probably the weakest overall offense Brady has had in a while...but the defense and the running game are stronger than he's had in the past. Past couple years he's had the running backs, but they were mostly pass catchers (Dion Lewis, James White), this year with Sony Michel he finally has a bell cow back that he can hand off to 20 times a game.
Agreed on the running game, but DVOA says NE's defense is about exactly average. Any thoughts about that?
Locking this one in now. Eagles have been the hardest team to predict for sure with Big Dick Nick...but the hot streak ends this weekend. Drew Brees is rested, the Eagles have no answer for Kamara and Ingram coming out of the backfield, and the Saints don't mess around when the get into the red zone like the Bears did last week. Superdome is a huge advantage as well. Most balanced team by far in the NFL this season was the Saints, and I love the way Sean Payton motivated them with the Super Bowl trophy and pile of cash. This team is headed to Atlanta, and has a damn good shot at winning it all.
Locking this one in now. Eagles have been the hardest team to predict for sure with Big Dick Nick...but the hot streak ends this weekend. Drew Brees is rested, the Eagles have no answer for Kamara and Ingram coming out of the backfield, and the Saints don't mess around when the get into the red zone like the Bears did last week. Superdome is a huge advantage as well. Most balanced team by far in the NFL this season was the Saints, and I love the way Sean Payton motivated them with the Super Bowl trophy and pile of cash. This team is headed to Atlanta, and has a damn good shot at winning it all.
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