I've been picking my spots where I like a +2/+3/+4/+5 to win outright, and instead of betting -110 on the short spread, I take -2, getting around +150 - +180 value.
Many cappers believe the 1 in 15 chance it lands in the sweet spot is worth taking the short spread, I fully disagree. So going to keep track for a few weeks, and we'll see if selling the points makes me money or loses money.
Today was the first one with Rockets. Spread was +3 -110. I took -2 +162. Difference was +0.72 units. So it's not a win/loss thing, it's solely whether selling the points won me more money or cost me profit.
1-0 +.72 units
P.S. These aren't my plays. I post my plays separately, like I said, solely to keep track and to prove a point that short underdog spreads aren't worth keeping.
I've been picking my spots where I like a +2/+3/+4/+5 to win outright, and instead of betting -110 on the short spread, I take -2, getting around +150 - +180 value.
Many cappers believe the 1 in 15 chance it lands in the sweet spot is worth taking the short spread, I fully disagree. So going to keep track for a few weeks, and we'll see if selling the points makes me money or loses money.
Today was the first one with Rockets. Spread was +3 -110. I took -2 +162. Difference was +0.72 units. So it's not a win/loss thing, it's solely whether selling the points won me more money or cost me profit.
1-0 +.72 units
P.S. These aren't my plays. I post my plays separately, like I said, solely to keep track and to prove a point that short underdog spreads aren't worth keeping.
I've been at this a long time and I sell points CONSTANTLY. I like where you're going with the short dogs @ +2/+3, I'd be more skeptical at the 4 and 5 range. Keep in mind a "system" like this will be much more profitable at the beginning of the season when lines are looser and late in the season when motivation factors are much more pronounced. This time of year tends to be pretty tight lines.
Another thing to look at is getting a book with a) better lines, b) giving good odds on selling a single point. You are selling 5 points on the above spread example, there is good profit to be made in selling 2 or 3. I have 3 books that I use and you'd be amazed at the differences in the vig on selling points. What I'm driving at is; you are selling 5 for .72, but if you shop books, you can probably sell 4 for .7, or 5 for .8.
A bit rambly on my points, but it boils down to; selling points can be very profitable, but absolutely not for beginners.
I've been at this a long time and I sell points CONSTANTLY. I like where you're going with the short dogs @ +2/+3, I'd be more skeptical at the 4 and 5 range. Keep in mind a "system" like this will be much more profitable at the beginning of the season when lines are looser and late in the season when motivation factors are much more pronounced. This time of year tends to be pretty tight lines.
Another thing to look at is getting a book with a) better lines, b) giving good odds on selling a single point. You are selling 5 points on the above spread example, there is good profit to be made in selling 2 or 3. I have 3 books that I use and you'd be amazed at the differences in the vig on selling points. What I'm driving at is; you are selling 5 for .72, but if you shop books, you can probably sell 4 for .7, or 5 for .8.
A bit rambly on my points, but it boils down to; selling points can be very profitable, but absolutely not for beginners.
A man after my own heart. I've been at this a long time and I sell points CONSTANTLY. I like where you're going with the short dogs @ +2/+3, I'd be more skeptical at the 4 and 5 range. Keep in mind a "system" like this will be much more profitable at the beginning of the season when lines are looser and late in the season when motivation factors are much more pronounced. This time of year tends to be pretty tight lines. Another thing to look at is getting a book with a) better lines, b) giving good odds on selling a single point. You are selling 5 points on the above spread example, there is good profit to be made in selling 2 or 3. I have 3 books that I use and you'd be amazed at the differences in the vig on selling points. What I'm driving at is; you are selling 5 for .72, but if you shop books, you can probably sell 4 for .7, or 5 for .8. A bit rambly on my points, but it boils down to; selling points can be very profitable, but absolutely not for beginners.
For sure. It's whenever I pick that underdog to win. I believe if they're going to win, odds are VERY LIKELY it will be by at least 2 points. I've seen people take +3 spreads saying "I think the other teams wins the game, but my team covers the spread" which is one of the dumbest concepts I've heard.
Yeah if you have any books you recommend for those better odds let me know. I bet with a bookie but we base the odds off of bet365
A man after my own heart. I've been at this a long time and I sell points CONSTANTLY. I like where you're going with the short dogs @ +2/+3, I'd be more skeptical at the 4 and 5 range. Keep in mind a "system" like this will be much more profitable at the beginning of the season when lines are looser and late in the season when motivation factors are much more pronounced. This time of year tends to be pretty tight lines. Another thing to look at is getting a book with a) better lines, b) giving good odds on selling a single point. You are selling 5 points on the above spread example, there is good profit to be made in selling 2 or 3. I have 3 books that I use and you'd be amazed at the differences in the vig on selling points. What I'm driving at is; you are selling 5 for .72, but if you shop books, you can probably sell 4 for .7, or 5 for .8. A bit rambly on my points, but it boils down to; selling points can be very profitable, but absolutely not for beginners.
For sure. It's whenever I pick that underdog to win. I believe if they're going to win, odds are VERY LIKELY it will be by at least 2 points. I've seen people take +3 spreads saying "I think the other teams wins the game, but my team covers the spread" which is one of the dumbest concepts I've heard.
Yeah if you have any books you recommend for those better odds let me know. I bet with a bookie but we base the odds off of bet365
I love this theory. I've read of similar things in football, where (not exact numbers) but 65% of the time an underdog covers a spread, they win outright. I'd think there are similar trends in basketball...I'll dig a bit when I have days off.
I'm using pinnaclesports for the best line 80% of the time. Sportsinteraction 18% of the time and bet365 2% of the time. Their vigorish is high (10pts on spreads/totals, 15pts on most alternate lines and jumps to 18pts to 20pts on a lot of props or live bets). I've tried 5dimes before because they have some of the best lines, but I hate their platform. It sucks that Americans can't use online books easily.
I love this theory. I've read of similar things in football, where (not exact numbers) but 65% of the time an underdog covers a spread, they win outright. I'd think there are similar trends in basketball...I'll dig a bit when I have days off.
I'm using pinnaclesports for the best line 80% of the time. Sportsinteraction 18% of the time and bet365 2% of the time. Their vigorish is high (10pts on spreads/totals, 15pts on most alternate lines and jumps to 18pts to 20pts on a lot of props or live bets). I've tried 5dimes before because they have some of the best lines, but I hate their platform. It sucks that Americans can't use online books easily.
I love this theory. I've read of similar things in football, where (not exact numbers) but 65% of the time an underdog covers a spread, they win outright. I'd think there are similar trends in basketball...I'll dig a bit when I have days off. I'm using pinnaclesports for the best line 80% of the time. Sportsinteraction 18% of the time and bet365 2% of the time. Their vigorish is high (10pts on spreads/totals, 15pts on most alternate lines and jumps to 18pts to 20pts on a lot of props or live bets). I've tried 5dimes before because they have some of the best lines, but I hate their platform. It sucks that Americans can't use online books easily.
I'm a tad more careful with football. I take ML instead of short spread, and occasionally sell up to -3.
With basketball, you can have a CLOSE game all 4 quarters, and then intentional fouls runs it up to 3-6 points anyways. In football, a missed extra point can mess up the spread. So it still works, but not as well as in the NBA.
I love this theory. I've read of similar things in football, where (not exact numbers) but 65% of the time an underdog covers a spread, they win outright. I'd think there are similar trends in basketball...I'll dig a bit when I have days off. I'm using pinnaclesports for the best line 80% of the time. Sportsinteraction 18% of the time and bet365 2% of the time. Their vigorish is high (10pts on spreads/totals, 15pts on most alternate lines and jumps to 18pts to 20pts on a lot of props or live bets). I've tried 5dimes before because they have some of the best lines, but I hate their platform. It sucks that Americans can't use online books easily.
I'm a tad more careful with football. I take ML instead of short spread, and occasionally sell up to -3.
With basketball, you can have a CLOSE game all 4 quarters, and then intentional fouls runs it up to 3-6 points anyways. In football, a missed extra point can mess up the spread. So it still works, but not as well as in the NBA.
this strategy works pretty well in football. Taking dogs to win outright for the big plus or laying an additional point or two on the favorite to get plus odds on the spread if you like them. As CanadianTruth stated the point spread in NFL games rarely comes into play.
this strategy works pretty well in football. Taking dogs to win outright for the big plus or laying an additional point or two on the favorite to get plus odds on the spread if you like them. As CanadianTruth stated the point spread in NFL games rarely comes into play.
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