Iowa (6-4, 3-4, 6-4 ats). vs Illinois (4-6, 2-5, 4-6 ats)
Memorial Stadium 3:30. Big 10 Network TV
Line:Iowa -14. O/U. 58.5
I don't like laying big chalk on the road and here I am doing it a second time this weekend. In fact I've ate more chalk the past two weeks than I did the previous 10 weeks combined. But it is the end of the season and some of these home dogs have lost their bite.
Three weeks ago Hawkeye fans were sippin' coffee and talkin' about whether or not this was the most talented team Kirk Ferentz ever had. Now they they are sippin' a little bourbon and talkin' about what could have been and wondering if the Hawkeyes can get to .500 in the Big 10. Iowa comes into this game in Champaign on the heels of three consecutive tough losses.
The Hawkeyes came darn close to having a super season. It was within their grasp but the dream of a Big 10 Championship narrowly slipped away. Fact is they came really close to being undefeated at this point.
Against Wisconsin the Badgers down by 4 scored the winning td with 57 seconds to go.
At Penn St down by 6 they had the ball 1st and goal on the 3 with 3 minutes remaining. Stanley tried to audible as the play clock was winding down, confusion ensued, and Stanley threw an int straight to a PSU defender.
Went to Purdue and lost 36-38 by a fg with 8 seconds to go.
Their Big 10 Title hopes were dashed last week when Wildcat WR Skowronek made an ESPN top 10 catch to beat them 14-10. They had shutout NW in the 1st half and limited them to 75 yds of offense.
So, as you can see they were darn close to a really big season.
The non-Fightin' Illini come into this game having given up 582 ypg and 49 ppg in their last 5 games. Ouch! The only defense being played the buyout on Lovie's sweet contract deal. Of their 6 losses this season they have been completely blown out 5 times.
They got blown out by Penn St 63-24.
Purdue bombed them 46-7.
Wisconsin hammered them 49-20.
Maryland boat raced them 63-33.
Nebraska shucked them 54-35.
You have to ask yourself if their is any fight left in them.
Defensive Stats
Total pointsD Rush D. Pass D. Total D
Iowa. #13 18ppg #6. 96 ypg. #27 190 ypg. #10 285 ypg
3.0 ypr. 6.3 ypa. 58% comp. 4.6 yds/play
Illinois. #120 39ppg. #123 248 ypg #126 285 ypg. # 128 533 ypg
6.0 ypr. 8.6 ypa 63% comp. 7.1 yds/play
The Illinois defense has issues and it continues to flounder.
I'll go on record and say Iowa is the best 4 loss team in the country. Until last week they were #15 in the power ratings used to set the line.
This week they sit at #19 with 4 losses. Illinois is #97, right their with teams like Ga Southern, Louisville, and Western Michigan.
The strength of Illinois is their running game which is #8 at 263ypg. They have to run the ball to be effective. I just don't see that happening against the stiff Iowa stop unit giving up only 96 ypg, 3.0 ypr. This will put them into third and long situations, forcing them to pass and they only convert at a 35% rate on 3rd downs. Illini passing offense is #116 only 160 ypg.
Even though they have been in every game with a strong defensive effort the Hawkeye offense has been inconsistent down the stretch and has scored less than 25 points in 3 of their last 4 games. But if their is a bunch to get right on this is it. Hawkeyes should move the ball well against the porous Illy D. QB Stanley should get time to throw and bomb away with some deep shots against the soft Illinois secondary opening up the field for the Hawkeyes to run the ball well too.
All these numbers are fine and dandy but predicting a teams psychological state is a lot more critical. Will Iowa show up with a spirited effort after losing the shot at the Big 10 Title game last week? Or will they suffer the hangover effect? I think Kirk Ferentz will have them ready and I believe they come in here pizzed off and ready to take out their frustrations on a team that can be had, and has shown they will rollover. They win here and beat Nebraska next week they can still go 8-4 and go to a good Bowl. I think the non-Fightin' Illini have just been playing out the stretch. They gave up over 600 yards last week to the Huskers. They would have to win here and beat Northwestern next week just go to a stinky bowl. You have to wonder if they really want to extend their season.
Mostly cloudy. 30% chance light rain. High of 40. Wind 5-9 mph.
If you can't close you can't cover.