This is a popular pick and the juice has really gone up for obvious reasons. Buffalo's offensive line looks to be total trash this year and you already know they have the worst QB group in the league. I'm not high on Josh Allen at least as a rookie i very much doubt he can come in with a shit offensive line and produce. The risk here is that their defense could still be reasonably solid however I think with the poor offense the defense will be spending too much time on the field and will gradually be worn down by teams.
Kansas City Under 8.5 wins $1500 to win $1225
There's alot of hype around Pat Mahomes in the media currently. He is coming in to an offense that has great weapons surrounding him. History is against him though, he sat last year, played one game and is coming in basically as a rookie. I like this pick as Alex Smith is always underrated, he was a top 10 QB last year and people are always writing him off because he doesn't take many risks. The chance that Pat can come in and be a top 10 QB is very unlikely considering the history of QBs coming into the league, to be honest realisticly he should be happy if he can end up as a 20th best QB in his first year. The problem for KC here is they have one of the worst defense's in the league losing Marcus Peters is hard to replace, last year he was around the 15th best corner in the league. The got Anthony Hitchens will should be a descent updgrade but it's not enough, overall I think they will be bottom of the league in defense. Cornerbacks are still underrated by some teams, they are more important than pass rushers when it comes to the percentage that they impact the game leading to a stronger correlation to wins. The risk for the bet mainly comes from Andy Reid and the schemes he is going to imploy on offense, he is a coach with a great record but I think the chance that he can turn Pat into a top 10 QB and outscore teams with his crap defense is unlikely.
Chargers to win AFC West $500 to win $750 (Wait until just before start of season due to injury curse)
This one has lost alot of juice and to be honest it may have lost a bit too much. Another popular pick here for obvious reasons. The defense could be a top 3 defense in the league, Casey Heyward is an awesome corner and they have a great duo of pass rushers. They keep getting a huge amount of injuries though! I think you should wait untill before the start of the season with this one, see how many injuries they get before then because it seems they are cursed. If they still have the core players then I think they will have a great year, one of the most solid offense lines that Rivers has had in a while, not elite but hopefully will be atleast average this year.
This is a popular pick and the juice has really gone up for obvious reasons. Buffalo's offensive line looks to be total trash this year and you already know they have the worst QB group in the league. I'm not high on Josh Allen at least as a rookie i very much doubt he can come in with a shit offensive line and produce. The risk here is that their defense could still be reasonably solid however I think with the poor offense the defense will be spending too much time on the field and will gradually be worn down by teams.
Kansas City Under 8.5 wins $1500 to win $1225
There's alot of hype around Pat Mahomes in the media currently. He is coming in to an offense that has great weapons surrounding him. History is against him though, he sat last year, played one game and is coming in basically as a rookie. I like this pick as Alex Smith is always underrated, he was a top 10 QB last year and people are always writing him off because he doesn't take many risks. The chance that Pat can come in and be a top 10 QB is very unlikely considering the history of QBs coming into the league, to be honest realisticly he should be happy if he can end up as a 20th best QB in his first year. The problem for KC here is they have one of the worst defense's in the league losing Marcus Peters is hard to replace, last year he was around the 15th best corner in the league. The got Anthony Hitchens will should be a descent updgrade but it's not enough, overall I think they will be bottom of the league in defense. Cornerbacks are still underrated by some teams, they are more important than pass rushers when it comes to the percentage that they impact the game leading to a stronger correlation to wins. The risk for the bet mainly comes from Andy Reid and the schemes he is going to imploy on offense, he is a coach with a great record but I think the chance that he can turn Pat into a top 10 QB and outscore teams with his crap defense is unlikely.
Chargers to win AFC West $500 to win $750 (Wait until just before start of season due to injury curse)
This one has lost alot of juice and to be honest it may have lost a bit too much. Another popular pick here for obvious reasons. The defense could be a top 3 defense in the league, Casey Heyward is an awesome corner and they have a great duo of pass rushers. They keep getting a huge amount of injuries though! I think you should wait untill before the start of the season with this one, see how many injuries they get before then because it seems they are cursed. If they still have the core players then I think they will have a great year, one of the most solid offense lines that Rivers has had in a while, not elite but hopefully will be atleast average this year.
This is a longshot, I'm not saying the deserve to be the favorite or anything here I agree the Rams should be favorite to win the division however this is huge odds. Sam Bradford was the most accurate QB in the league before going down, he is fit and healthy, skiing not that long ago. They have a shit offensive line which will be their major problem, if they can step up and Bradford can play most of the season people will be surprised, he can be a top 10 QB when healthy. Their defense is often overlooked, it could definately be better than average again this season and even sneak into the top 10 defense in the league again. Once again this bet is unlikely to hit but with these huge odds I can't help but jump on they should be much lower.
$400 to win $4892
Yes I know parlays are for losers anyway here's one I like this year
This is a longshot, I'm not saying the deserve to be the favorite or anything here I agree the Rams should be favorite to win the division however this is huge odds. Sam Bradford was the most accurate QB in the league before going down, he is fit and healthy, skiing not that long ago. They have a shit offensive line which will be their major problem, if they can step up and Bradford can play most of the season people will be surprised, he can be a top 10 QB when healthy. Their defense is often overlooked, it could definately be better than average again this season and even sneak into the top 10 defense in the league again. Once again this bet is unlikely to hit but with these huge odds I can't help but jump on they should be much lower.
$400 to win $4892
Yes I know parlays are for losers anyway here's one I like this year
Bills - man thats alot of juice but the Bills have nothing to support the over other 2 games against the Jets and Fish which still doesn't add up to 7 wins.
Chiefs - you better hope that 8 - 0 streak against the Chargers doesn't continue. Ried 8 - 2. The last game the Chargers won was a 15 point Chief underdog game where Ried rested most of the best for the playoffs and it went into OT. I bet the opening day Chief vs Chargers game +150 and +3.
Chargers win division - see above. These 2 bets are riding primarily on the 2 head to head matchups. They are in essence, one in the same bet. 3 chargers down for the count already and it's early.
Bills - man thats alot of juice but the Bills have nothing to support the over other 2 games against the Jets and Fish which still doesn't add up to 7 wins.
Chiefs - you better hope that 8 - 0 streak against the Chargers doesn't continue. Ried 8 - 2. The last game the Chargers won was a 15 point Chief underdog game where Ried rested most of the best for the playoffs and it went into OT. I bet the opening day Chief vs Chargers game +150 and +3.
Chargers win division - see above. These 2 bets are riding primarily on the 2 head to head matchups. They are in essence, one in the same bet. 3 chargers down for the count already and it's early.
Bills - man thats alot of juice but the Bills have nothing to support the over other 2 games against the Jets and Fish which still doesn't add up to 7 wins.Chiefs - you better hope that 8 - 0 streak against the Chargers doesn't continue. Ried 8 - 2. The last game the Chargers won was a 15 point Chief underdog game where Ried rested most of the best for the playoffs and it went into OT. I bet the opening day Chief vs Chargers game +150 and +3. Chargers win division - see above. These 2 bets are riding primarily on the 2 head to head matchups. They are in essence, one in the same bet. 3 chargers down for the count already and it's early. Good luck.
Quote Originally Posted by Goggles-Pisano:
Bills - man thats alot of juice but the Bills have nothing to support the over other 2 games against the Jets and Fish which still doesn't add up to 7 wins.Chiefs - you better hope that 8 - 0 streak against the Chargers doesn't continue. Ried 8 - 2. The last game the Chargers won was a 15 point Chief underdog game where Ried rested most of the best for the playoffs and it went into OT. I bet the opening day Chief vs Chargers game +150 and +3. Chargers win division - see above. These 2 bets are riding primarily on the 2 head to head matchups. They are in essence, one in the same bet. 3 chargers down for the count already and it's early. Good luck.
Yep agree that KC could be a risk here with Reid and his successful history. Qb is king though and Mahomes will have to go against the odds for a rookie QB to get over 8 wins this season.
Bills under seems easy buy let's remember everyone wrote off the Jets last year and they performed better than expected so you never know.
Bills - man thats alot of juice but the Bills have nothing to support the over other 2 games against the Jets and Fish which still doesn't add up to 7 wins.Chiefs - you better hope that 8 - 0 streak against the Chargers doesn't continue. Ried 8 - 2. The last game the Chargers won was a 15 point Chief underdog game where Ried rested most of the best for the playoffs and it went into OT. I bet the opening day Chief vs Chargers game +150 and +3. Chargers win division - see above. These 2 bets are riding primarily on the 2 head to head matchups. They are in essence, one in the same bet. 3 chargers down for the count already and it's early. Good luck.
Quote Originally Posted by Goggles-Pisano:
Bills - man thats alot of juice but the Bills have nothing to support the over other 2 games against the Jets and Fish which still doesn't add up to 7 wins.Chiefs - you better hope that 8 - 0 streak against the Chargers doesn't continue. Ried 8 - 2. The last game the Chargers won was a 15 point Chief underdog game where Ried rested most of the best for the playoffs and it went into OT. I bet the opening day Chief vs Chargers game +150 and +3. Chargers win division - see above. These 2 bets are riding primarily on the 2 head to head matchups. They are in essence, one in the same bet. 3 chargers down for the count already and it's early. Good luck.
Yep agree that KC could be a risk here with Reid and his successful history. Qb is king though and Mahomes will have to go against the odds for a rookie QB to get over 8 wins this season.
Bills under seems easy buy let's remember everyone wrote off the Jets last year and they performed better than expected so you never know.
I like Denver over 7 1/2 wins as my best future bet.
Denver will be interesting I think Keenum is still underrated however it will be harder for him without that offensive line.
Adding to my futures -
$650 to win $1151 Parlay
Panthers Under 9 wins
Texans Under 9.5 wins
Panthers have one of the hardest schedules in the league. I think they over achieved last season. They are in a brutal division, I rate the saints and falcons very highly this season. Tampa should be a bit better and could take a game off the Panthers. Cam had been innacurate for a while on medium to short passes which is what matters most in todays football being about mostly medium passes. They just lost their right tackle another underrated position, right tackle is arguably just as important as left maybe slight less, overlooked by many.
Texans will be interesting, I think Watson also over achieved last season. He had a lot of turnover worthy plays that he was lucky they weren't picked off. Regression to the mean here will likely attribute to more interceptions. I see the main problem for Watson and the Texans being one of the worst offensive lines in the league, they are trying to offset that with a mobile QB but he will have to be a superstar to avoid all the pressures. Similar to Seattle, can Watson do a Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers type of escapability and still be able to find receivers? Not many can do that and all the hits will also lead to a higher chance of another injury. The defense is solid up front but has some weakness on the back end. Jags have a better defense and improved offensive line, I see them destroying the Texans. Andrew Luck is back and we know he is able to carry a team, he had the highest fantasy score of any QB in 2016. Titans have a new offensive coordinator I think he is going to make a huge difference and use Mariota properly with his strengths, look to see a big increase in RPO's.
I like Denver over 7 1/2 wins as my best future bet.
Denver will be interesting I think Keenum is still underrated however it will be harder for him without that offensive line.
Adding to my futures -
$650 to win $1151 Parlay
Panthers Under 9 wins
Texans Under 9.5 wins
Panthers have one of the hardest schedules in the league. I think they over achieved last season. They are in a brutal division, I rate the saints and falcons very highly this season. Tampa should be a bit better and could take a game off the Panthers. Cam had been innacurate for a while on medium to short passes which is what matters most in todays football being about mostly medium passes. They just lost their right tackle another underrated position, right tackle is arguably just as important as left maybe slight less, overlooked by many.
Texans will be interesting, I think Watson also over achieved last season. He had a lot of turnover worthy plays that he was lucky they weren't picked off. Regression to the mean here will likely attribute to more interceptions. I see the main problem for Watson and the Texans being one of the worst offensive lines in the league, they are trying to offset that with a mobile QB but he will have to be a superstar to avoid all the pressures. Similar to Seattle, can Watson do a Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers type of escapability and still be able to find receivers? Not many can do that and all the hits will also lead to a higher chance of another injury. The defense is solid up front but has some weakness on the back end. Jags have a better defense and improved offensive line, I see them destroying the Texans. Andrew Luck is back and we know he is able to carry a team, he had the highest fantasy score of any QB in 2016. Titans have a new offensive coordinator I think he is going to make a huge difference and use Mariota properly with his strengths, look to see a big increase in RPO's.
This is a longshot, I'm not saying the deserve to be the favorite or anything here I agree the Rams should be favorite to win the division however this is huge odds. Sam Bradford was the most accurate QB in the league before going down, he is fit and healthy, skiing not that long ago. They have a garbage offensive line which will be their major problem, if they can step up and Bradford can play most of the season people will be surprised, he can be a top 10 QB when healthy. Their defense is often overlooked, it could definately be better than average again this season and even sneak into the top 10 defense in the league again. Once again this bet is unlikely to hit but with these huge odds I can't help but jump on they should be much lower.
$400 to win $4892
Yes I know parlays are for losers anyway here's one I like this year
Buffalo Under 6.5 wins
Ne under 11 wins
Eagles Under 10.5 wins
Redskins over 7 wins
Why not play Cardinals over 6 wins instead... better and safer play imo..
This is a longshot, I'm not saying the deserve to be the favorite or anything here I agree the Rams should be favorite to win the division however this is huge odds. Sam Bradford was the most accurate QB in the league before going down, he is fit and healthy, skiing not that long ago. They have a garbage offensive line which will be their major problem, if they can step up and Bradford can play most of the season people will be surprised, he can be a top 10 QB when healthy. Their defense is often overlooked, it could definately be better than average again this season and even sneak into the top 10 defense in the league again. Once again this bet is unlikely to hit but with these huge odds I can't help but jump on they should be much lower.
$400 to win $4892
Yes I know parlays are for losers anyway here's one I like this year
Buffalo Under 6.5 wins
Ne under 11 wins
Eagles Under 10.5 wins
Redskins over 7 wins
Why not play Cardinals over 6 wins instead... better and safer play imo..
[/Quote]Why not play Cardinals over 6 wins instead... better and safer play imo..[/Quote]
Of course it is a safer play it also doesn't pay out over 18 times the original stake. Of course this bet only has a small chance to hit at +1800 but I would put the odds at more like +1100. I don't want to bet the over 6 because if Sam doesn't stay healthy I don't see the rookie being able to perform behind the O line, would rather stake a small amount for a long shot.
[/Quote]Why not play Cardinals over 6 wins instead... better and safer play imo..[/Quote]
Of course it is a safer play it also doesn't pay out over 18 times the original stake. Of course this bet only has a small chance to hit at +1800 but I would put the odds at more like +1100. I don't want to bet the over 6 because if Sam doesn't stay healthy I don't see the rookie being able to perform behind the O line, would rather stake a small amount for a long shot.
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