I tried capping MLB like NFL and NBA by picking your spots.....sharp plays....reverse line movement etc...…
Baseball is a moneyline sport. You don't have to pick against the spread just pick who wins the game. Theres 2430 games total in a season!
The sharp betters always say stay away from big favorites but I beg to differ.....This strategy forces you into researching coin flip games and looking for so called value dogs. When in reality that big favorite with an ace on the mound would have netted you a win for the day. Long term you need these Huge lines to stabilize your loses...think longterm investing even when you lose theres 2430 games to get it back!
Which brings me to plus money underdogs....for every big favorite you lost theres gonna be an underdog that will recoup your loss....one week you pay your guy the next week you will collect but the main and obvious goal is to profit longterm.
I use to look daily who the public is on and reverse line movement....Don't even waste your time capping with that strategy because it will throw you off because everyday it changes which will cause you to change your mind on a team you capped. Why did the line move? Why is the public pounding this game? Reverse psychology is the worst thing you can fall victim too in sports betting.
I didn't embrace volume betting in MLB. Now is the time to start! Again theres 2430 games a season compared to NFL. Sheer volume on a ROI of 2% would net you 9 times more profit compared to NFL.
Money Management and limiting your plays to the most valuable games of the day is key while increasing profit by volume....
I tried capping MLB like NFL and NBA by picking your spots.....sharp plays....reverse line movement etc...…
Baseball is a moneyline sport. You don't have to pick against the spread just pick who wins the game. Theres 2430 games total in a season!
The sharp betters always say stay away from big favorites but I beg to differ.....This strategy forces you into researching coin flip games and looking for so called value dogs. When in reality that big favorite with an ace on the mound would have netted you a win for the day. Long term you need these Huge lines to stabilize your loses...think longterm investing even when you lose theres 2430 games to get it back!
Which brings me to plus money underdogs....for every big favorite you lost theres gonna be an underdog that will recoup your loss....one week you pay your guy the next week you will collect but the main and obvious goal is to profit longterm.
I use to look daily who the public is on and reverse line movement....Don't even waste your time capping with that strategy because it will throw you off because everyday it changes which will cause you to change your mind on a team you capped. Why did the line move? Why is the public pounding this game? Reverse psychology is the worst thing you can fall victim too in sports betting.
I didn't embrace volume betting in MLB. Now is the time to start! Again theres 2430 games a season compared to NFL. Sheer volume on a ROI of 2% would net you 9 times more profit compared to NFL.
Money Management and limiting your plays to the most valuable games of the day is key while increasing profit by volume....
Nice call ,look forward to your posts and I agree with this approach,we've got a long way to go.Best of luck!
The only way you should play the MLB.... I use to fire $500 to $1000 on MLB parlays or straight plays thinking sharp plays are the way to play MLB. Trying to hit homeruns every week was reckless. Not to mention how frustrating it was to play these games with big money on games.
This approach I can still enjoy MLB longterm as a fan and no stress with wagering. If I lose its only $200 and it can go back and forth but as long as its gaining ROI gradually I'm in a win win situation....Put a play in a day if it hits it hits.....if it doesn't no big deal! I can still do real life things instead of stressing over a 1-0 bottom of the ninth......Arizona diamondbacks game with $1K on the line.....
Actually enjoying baseball as a fan with a ROI longterm has been the best decision I made in awhile......
Nice call ,look forward to your posts and I agree with this approach,we've got a long way to go.Best of luck!
The only way you should play the MLB.... I use to fire $500 to $1000 on MLB parlays or straight plays thinking sharp plays are the way to play MLB. Trying to hit homeruns every week was reckless. Not to mention how frustrating it was to play these games with big money on games.
This approach I can still enjoy MLB longterm as a fan and no stress with wagering. If I lose its only $200 and it can go back and forth but as long as its gaining ROI gradually I'm in a win win situation....Put a play in a day if it hits it hits.....if it doesn't no big deal! I can still do real life things instead of stressing over a 1-0 bottom of the ninth......Arizona diamondbacks game with $1K on the line.....
Actually enjoying baseball as a fan with a ROI longterm has been the best decision I made in awhile......
sharp plays are only sharp if they have value... dogs and chalk
public perception is anticipated by books so often we will find the best value by using contrarian theory...but the value has to be there with your capping first and foremost
sharp plays are only sharp if they have value... dogs and chalk
public perception is anticipated by books so often we will find the best value by using contrarian theory...but the value has to be there with your capping first and foremost
Tuna With so many games on the board daily it can get confusing what has value....like the Twins game today the first thing I noticed was value getting Berrios at +110 and the Cubs yesterday getting Quintana at -175 facing a mets team that struggles against Quintana. Not much capping involved just simple match ups. The key is long term grind like a lot of posters here on covers who have been grinding every season.
Books have the advantage especially today because millenials can't grind out a flat bet system for the entire MLB season....they want instant results and gratification on a daily basis.....
Tuna With so many games on the board daily it can get confusing what has value....like the Twins game today the first thing I noticed was value getting Berrios at +110 and the Cubs yesterday getting Quintana at -175 facing a mets team that struggles against Quintana. Not much capping involved just simple match ups. The key is long term grind like a lot of posters here on covers who have been grinding every season.
Books have the advantage especially today because millenials can't grind out a flat bet system for the entire MLB season....they want instant results and gratification on a daily basis.....
Mets game 3 in a series having lost the first 2 already and your getting Degrom at -120? Now that's a value play!
The pitching matchups are released look at all the games and see which matchup as the best value its that simple.....
Also Id rather bet on a good pitcher vs a struggling opposing lineup than a bad pitcher against a good opposing lineup.
Reason being if the good pitcher didn't show up then so be it.....ill take the lose. Or if a bullpen implodes which it will happen ill take the lose as well...…
What I cant stand is watching a good lineup play whiffle ball against a bad pitcher and lose! We are talking a lineup of batters that avg. 300 against a pitcher and all the sudden that 10.00 ERA turns into a Cy young pitcher of the year! Evident of the Braves 2 days ago against Vargas with an ERA of 10.00. Which I still believe with so many games in the season teams just show up to swing the bat and act like they are playing but in reality they are taking a break from a 3 or 4 games series.
So in conclusion, if the pitchers show up they show up....if they don't on to the next game.
Mets game 3 in a series having lost the first 2 already and your getting Degrom at -120? Now that's a value play!
The pitching matchups are released look at all the games and see which matchup as the best value its that simple.....
Also Id rather bet on a good pitcher vs a struggling opposing lineup than a bad pitcher against a good opposing lineup.
Reason being if the good pitcher didn't show up then so be it.....ill take the lose. Or if a bullpen implodes which it will happen ill take the lose as well...…
What I cant stand is watching a good lineup play whiffle ball against a bad pitcher and lose! We are talking a lineup of batters that avg. 300 against a pitcher and all the sudden that 10.00 ERA turns into a Cy young pitcher of the year! Evident of the Braves 2 days ago against Vargas with an ERA of 10.00. Which I still believe with so many games in the season teams just show up to swing the bat and act like they are playing but in reality they are taking a break from a 3 or 4 games series.
So in conclusion, if the pitchers show up they show up....if they don't on to the next game.
This is the time in the season when pitchers, besides Homer Bailey, make adjustments that keep them on the roster. MLB is a hitters paradise right now because of the lack of elite pitching, but these high ERAs can’t last forever. Even Matt Moore found the knuckle curve which is effective, but he will have greater value since he had a dominating victory from his hitters last outing. His fastball is a meat sack. Year after year late May is when pitchers who sucked have decent outings...and vice versa.
This is the time in the season when pitchers, besides Homer Bailey, make adjustments that keep them on the roster. MLB is a hitters paradise right now because of the lack of elite pitching, but these high ERAs can’t last forever. Even Matt Moore found the knuckle curve which is effective, but he will have greater value since he had a dominating victory from his hitters last outing. His fastball is a meat sack. Year after year late May is when pitchers who sucked have decent outings...and vice versa.
AFN: good stuff amigo. Always a fan of what you have to offer this site. Insight and angles are what this site needs; too bad we don’t have more of your kind. All the best brotha.
AFN: good stuff amigo. Always a fan of what you have to offer this site. Insight and angles are what this site needs; too bad we don’t have more of your kind. All the best brotha.
Id rather bet on a good pitcher vs a struggling opposing lineup than a good lineup vs a bad pitcher
MLB 2-1 ($180)
hard to get a win as the best ERA pitcher in the league right now when you have a pitcher with an ERA of 24 in late innings....The mets are in serious trouble.....
That kid from AAA Luke Farrell came in and pitched a helluva game for the cubs to save maddons behind on horrible decisions he made that should have ended the game way earlier...... Hard to cap against players that show up with heart!
Id rather bet on a good pitcher vs a struggling opposing lineup than a good lineup vs a bad pitcher
MLB 2-1 ($180)
hard to get a win as the best ERA pitcher in the league right now when you have a pitcher with an ERA of 24 in late innings....The mets are in serious trouble.....
That kid from AAA Luke Farrell came in and pitched a helluva game for the cubs to save maddons behind on horrible decisions he made that should have ended the game way earlier...... Hard to cap against players that show up with heart!
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