So originally I was deadset on the under in this game after watching both teams play last week and the defensive rep both teams have. Admittedly didn't watch a lot of these two teams (or even much NFL in general this year) so I started delving into some stats.
I was surprised to see the Eagles have conceded some massive scores as well as average-high scores vs very bad offenses among their dominant performances.
I punched in all the eagles scores into a calculator and found the median points they conceded was 23 which is a huge difference from their average of 17.9.
Similar to the Jaguars they had a handful of extremely dominant defensive performances vs very weak teams which were:
7 points vs Cards (24th ranked offense)
10 points vs 49ers (Before Jimmy G)
9 points vs Cowboys (No Zeke)
3 points vs Bears (31st ranked offense)
10 points vs Raiders (22nd ranked offense)
6 points vs Cowboys (week 17, bad weather)
The performances against Cowboys were still impressive as they did have the 9th ranked scoring offense but the others were against extremely weak opposition.
They conceded 20+ points in 9/16 games hence the median of 23. They played three top 10 offenses and the median rank of offense they faced was 15 (average 17) so it was not an overly tough schedule they faced.
The Vikings on the other hand conceded a median points of 16, right in line with their average of 16.2. This means they did not have a lot of ultra dominant performances (3 games holding teams to 7 or less compared to 6 for eagles) but they were far more consistent, only conceding 20+ 4 times compared to 9 for the Eagles.
The median rank of offense they faced was 14 (average 16) so slightly tougher than what the Eagles faced as well.
I have seen enough to know Nick Foles does not have the goods.
Watch every throw from last week here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ng516fi0HU8
I think he gets past his first read just once (other than a few dumpoffs to his RB) this is a BIG problem, he stares down his first look and this is a surefire recipe for turnovers against the Vikings. He was really lucky to have what should have been an interception end up in Torrey Smith's arms for a big gain that lead to a field goal before halftime which you could argue was a game defining play.
Atlanta has a pedestrian defense compared to Minnesota.
I am not a huge fan of Case Keenum and the Vikes offense but they rank top 10 in some key metrics (offensive points per game, yards per pass attempt, points per play, red zone scoring percentage).
That came against an opposition median scoring defensive rank of 15.5 (avg 17) so middle of the road.
Keenum really only needs to be a game manager in this one and the Vikes defense should throttle Foles but if Keenum is more than a game manager it has the potential to get ugly.
I'm a huge fan of the underdog narrative with the dog masks and all but unfortunately I'll be on the Vikes -3.