The Jags offense is underrated (and the defense is overrated).
First I'll start with the defense to get this out of the way. Yes they are at the top in all key metrics but lets analyse the QBs they've played:
Deshaun Watson on debut (pulled out for Tom Savage)
Mariota x2 (blowout loss & meaningless close loss)
Joe Flacco (first London trip for Ravens, huge logistical complaints from Harbaugh)
Josh McCown (lost)
Big Ben (dominated him fair and square, play calling was terrible from Steelers however)
Jared Goff (lost but Goff didn't have to do much)
Jacoby Brissett x2
Andy Dalton
Philip Rivers (he had an ok game, no support from one of the worst run games in league)
Kizer
Blaine Gabbert (lost)
Russell Wilson (shredded them but also threw 3 picks)
T.J Yates
Jimmy G (shredded them)
They have played some of the worst QBs in the league and rightly dominated them for the most part.
Their scoring defense is heavily deflated by the amount of games they've teams to 7 or less but those teams were: texans x2, ravens in london, bengals, browns, colts (also held them to 10)
This is impressive for sure but my theory is it is easier to dominate poor opposition than it is to moderate success vs moderate opposition if that makes sense. Think about it, you could school a 10 year old kid 100/100 times but if you play someone of equal age and build to you it's gonna be closer to 50/100 times.
Really the only elite offense they shutdown was Pittsburgh in week 5 but I think it's fair to call that an anomaly after last week.
Clearly the Jags defense is good, young and opportunistic but they are not great. They have been shredded in several games against some of the rare elite competition they have played and also struggled against weaker-mediocre offenses...now they face the best.
The silver lining is, the offense is underrated. They have once again played some less than stiff opposition but they've dominated. I'm not making the claim they have an elite offense but it is better than their rep for sure.
Here's some stats:
They are #8 in offensive points per game (so this excludes their 7 defensive touchdowns)
#6 in yards per point
#8 in points per play
#8 in offensive touchdowns per game
#12 in yards per pass attempt
#1 in redzone scoring percentage (touchdowns only)
We once again saw this offensive efficiency against the Steelers last week.
And whilst the Pats are certainly an improved defensive unit, lets look at the opposition they've faced since their week 5 turnaround..
Rank of teams offensive points per game (defensive TDs excluded) they've played are: 19, 23 x2, 18, 27, 22, 28 x2, 4, 26 x 2.
Number 4 being Pittsburgh who scored 24 and ought to have scored another 7 had it not been for the archaic catch rule.
Titans were ranked 17th + Mariota injured his quad in the first quarter hence the lack of mobility and 8 sacks.
So all in all I really like over 45.5, unfortunately the Brady hand injury throws a spanner in the works. I'm sure he is fine but it makes me concerned that they might use a more conservative game plan.
I could see a 34-17 game or a 30-20 sort of game.