2016 record: 35-19 (~65%)
The reason there will be no hoopla and extensive write-up is because readers like straight up picks. I know this from experience. They do not like ML parlays and that is what this is.
And the reason I am taking two ML parlays is because I get better than even money if I parlay both without much risk whatsoever.
The pick:
ML PARLAY:
Middle Tennessee -275 over Hawaii
San Diego -200 over Cleveland
$100 pays $105
MTSU over Hawaii -
Why? They get Brent Stockstill back. This is the QB they lost before they lost to Marshall when I made the "Honoring the Deceased" angle play.
He's the son of the coach and an absolute stud. 27 TD's and 5 INT's in NINE games. Almost 3K yards passing. And he doesn't get sacked (only 7 times all year which shows how good this O-Line is).
The run game is more than complimentary (almost 500 yards over FAU last game after dropping 77 on them). This is a high-powered offense that can score in a blink. Hawaii cannot keep up with this even if it's a home game. Remember, this is not a team on travel. MTSU has an adjusted body clock given they arrived early, just like lousy UMass did and UMass took Hawaii right to the gun in a 46-40 loss (and I can't express how terrible Umass is and that was for Hawaii to get into this bowl).
Typically, I'd say father and son as coach and QB is a bad thing but these two are good at what they do, especially Brent. I see no reason why they should lose to an unremarkable Hawaii team that struggled to beat the worst Fresno State team in team in history not to long ago.
Allegedly Stockstill is a game time decision but from what I see on tape today he looks fine.
San Diego over Cleveland -
This was very close switch with the Bills over Miami but I have to take the Chargers here at the exact same ML.
This goes back to the "Minimum Standards" angle where a team that is historically awful can remove the stain of losing by taking out "that team." Every team doesn't want to be "that team" so after Cleveland lost about 8-9 games, the other teams, no matter how bad, are treating the game as a must-win. So we forget the spread. And San Diego however bad will respond accordingly. Do I expect it to be close? Yes. And Cleveland may actually lead.
But the question is this: How can Cleveland keep that up for 4 quarters? Haven't done that all year and at the tail end of last year. They haven't scored more than 13 points since October 30th against the Jets. This team does not score. Can't score. Can't win. Is San Diego bad and on it's own 3 game losing streak? Yes.
But how do you beat San Diego? You make them turn the ball over through Rivers. And how does Cleveland do in that area. 8 INt's all year. ONE every other game. At almost the very bottom of the league. Overall 28th in the league in giveaway/takeaway. So how will you stop Rivers on offense? He's going to be throwing every down now that Gordon is likely out.
I saw this with the Lions. Every team prevented themselves from begin 'that team' and they took it right to the finish line. Cleveland has horrible run defense (second worst in the league so even the backups will put up numbers) and only a moderately decent pass defense but they are terrible defending tight ends. And you are going up against Gates here. Cleveland gave up a wide open touchdown Charles Clay last week (wasn't a player within 10 yards of him) and 2 to Eifert the week before. Even their FG kicker, if needed to win this game is 0-3 on 50+ yarders this year.
RG3 NEEDS to be that mobile QB with the pass and that player is long gone. I am more than willing to fade RG3 in every game he plays until the end of his career when the spread is right.
Where are the risks? Like Purdue? When they were losing they went for onside kicks. They went for fake punts. They went for it on 4th down a ton. They surprised teams. They lost but at least they kept teams on their toes. Cleveland is bringing NONE of this.
San Diego has nothing to play for but to avoid being that team. And remember San Diego has been in virtually every single loss this year outside of Carolina. This could easily be an 8/9 win team if the ball bounces there way a few times.
They have a lot more to play for than the Bills, who are essentially eliminated against Miami and these two games have the same ML. Cleveland as discussed has ZERO home filed advantage so you get a bargain on the ML and the spread (tickets are going for $7). I love to take teams to BREAK streaks but you have to know when they will break. Here? This team has lost 17 in a row and I don't see a win here given the above. Gordon may even play and that will be even more of an impetus for the play if he does. I also like that the Chargers are not play in San Diego since Rivers commented he feels like he's playing an away game at home. Demoralizing. And they travel to the worst HF advantage in the league without having that home fan stigma.
No complaints about the ML parlay. You DON'T HAVE to play it if you don't like it. I don't like laying points in either game so I'll just parlay the two and make the house pay me the juice.