I figured I'd start a thread about one of the first bowl games, provide some information I think is relevant to the spread, and hopefully other people will add their thoughts to it.
Bowl: Las Vegas Bowl San Diego State vs Houston
Kickoff: 12/17 3:30 EST
Weather: 66 degrees with clear sky's
Opening Line: Houston -3 OU 60
Current Line: Houston -3.5 -4 OU 54.5
The first point that I want to make is that I think people need to be careful not to let their memory of Houston dismantling Louisville affect their idea of this game too much. Houston played a great game, but the circumstances surrounding that game, are completely different than the circumstances surrounding the Las Vegas Bowl...
First and foremost Houston played Louisville at home in a front of a sold out crowd, and the stadium was a rocking. This was a thursday night game, so Louisville had to travel on a short week, Houston was a 17 point underdog, and their coaching staff was still intact...That win also looks less impressive, after watching Louisville limp to the finish line. Louisville nearly lost to Wake Forest, got annihilated at Houston, and lost to Kentucky in their season finale... Momentum plays such an important role in college football, more so than most other sports, this is why teams have such a tough time winning a night game in Death Valley. When that momentum swings in favor of the home team, there are very few College football teams that are good enough to fight through the adversity and win the game. When Louisville fumbled the opening kickoff and Houston went up 7-0 in the first 30 seconds, i knew Louisville was in for a tough night. There's no denying that Houston played a really good game, especially defensively, but Louisville played terrible, so I think that needs to be kept in perspective.
The next aspect of this game that I think could play a major role in SDST favor is that at this point in the season SDST is the much more stable team, and Houston has to be disappointed with this bowl game. Not only did this team underachieve, but they also lost their head coach, who took the Texas head coaching job. Remember, this Houston team beat Florida State in the Peach Bowl last year. After beating Oklahoma in week 3, every pundit thought Houston had a chance at the College Football Playoff. There's no doubt that Houston had higher expectations for their post season, and have to look at San Diego State, and the Las Vegas Bowl as a real let down. I think we would be foolish not to question,Houston's motivation to win this game. The Las Vegas bowl is a game played at 12:30 local time, and in front of approximately 35,000 people. This has to feel a lot less significant than their home finale against a 5th ranked Louisville team...
Houston has been a bad road team all year, losing 3/5 road games on the season. They lost at Navy, at SMU, and lost the ;last game of the season at Memphis 48-44. They also struggled against a poor Cincinnati team, before pulling away late... I dont know what kind of effort we'll see out of Houston, but for a team that already struggles on the road, it's hard to imagine that a week in Vegas, and an interim head coach,would be anything other than a negative for the Cougars.