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WHY BETTING UNDERDOGS IN BASEBALL IS
DIFFERENT FROM ANY OTHER SPORT.
There are several different approaches and strategies to handicapping baseball,
but the most fundamental and obvious starting point is one that is taken
completely for granted. Baseball is quite unique when it comes to betting
because the gaps between the best and worst teams are far closer than in any
other sport. Let's look at the other major betting sports.
In the NFL, the Carolina Panthers were 15-1 winning 93.8% of their games. The
worst 3 teams in the NFL this past season were 3-13 (Cleveland and Tennessee)
winning just 18.8% of their games.
In the NBA this season, Golden State is currently 68-8, winning 89.5% of their
games. The worst team in the NBA is the Philadelphia 76ers at 9-67, winning
just 11.8% of their games.
In NCAA Basketball this season, Kansas was 30-4 this season, winning at a rate
of 88.2%. The worst team in the country was Chicago State at 4-28 (12.5%).
In NCAA Football, Clemson compiled a record of 14-1 winning 93.3% while Kansas
went 0-12 (0.00%).
Meanwhile, the 2015 baseball season was not that much different than any other
baseball season. The St. Louis Cardinals had the best record in the majors at 100-62 (61.7%).
The worst team in the majors was the Philadelphia Phillies at 63-99 (38.9%).
These records are nowhere close to the best and worst records of any other
major betting sport.
So there you have it:
Sport
Best
Worst
NFL
93.8% 18.8%
NBA 89.5% 11.8%
NCAAB 88.2%
12.5%
NCAAF 93.3% 0.00%
MLB
61.7% 38.9%
While it seems like an obvious point, it is often overlooked
that the worst team in baseball still wins at a percentage well in excess of at
least double the worst team in any sport. Taking it a step further, based on
last season's numbers, the worst team in baseball won almost 2 out of every 5
games, while the best team in baseball won slightly more than 3 out of every 5
games. Let's face it, in NCAAB, if you put Kasnas up against Chicago State 100
times this season, Kansas would easily win 90% of the time and probably close
to 100%. If the Carolina Panthers played the Browns 10 times, they'd easily win
9 on average. It's nothing like that in baseball.
In 2015, the Phillies (the team with the worst record in the NL at 38.9%) beat
the Cubs (97-65, 59.9%) 5 out of 7 times (71.4%). Atlanta (67-95, 41.4%) beat
the MLB best St. Louis Cardinals 4 out of 6 times (66.7%). Cincinnati (64-98.
39.5%) beat the Pirates (98-64, 60.5%) 11 out of 19 times (57.9%) of the time.
The Mets were 90-72 (55.6%) yet were 0-13 against the Cubs and Pirates
combined. Any MLB team can beat any other MLB on any given day. It is unlike
that in any other sport.