Great start to the playoffs last weekend coming away with
$3,865 in profit. Here’s what I’m playing this weekend:
Seattle
Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers
Cardinals, Panthers, and Packers can all thank Blair
Walsh for making their Superbowl run that much harder. The Vikings had what it
took to beat the Seahawks which was one of the reasons I played them very large
on the spread last Sunday. They had the weather factor, nothing to lose,
revenge, Mike Zimmer, a non-existent running game for Seattle, and a 9-0 lead
starting the 4th Q. The Seahawks were dead in the water for 50
minutes of that game.
Here’s the problem, all of that changes this week. First
of all, Marshawn Lynch had all the practice reps last week and then said he
wasn’t going to play late on Friday leaving Christine Michael to start with
basically 0 prep time with his offensive line. It was tough to sustain drives
on offense against Minnesota with a one-dimensional offense and going up
against all the intangible but Seattle will have the advantage this week.
First of all, Carolina had the easiest schedule in the
entire NFL – ranked 32nd out of 32 teams. Although they were 15-1
this season, they had a league high 8 wins that ended within 1 possession
(again against the worst schedule in the NFL). Second, Seattle had Carolina
beat in the first matchup this season when they were up 23-14 before late 4th
quarter heroics – Pete Carroll is no scrub, he’ll make the proper adjustments.
And third, the Seahawks just played a terrible game against Minny in some of
the harshest weather conditions in playoff history and still won on the road.
These are the back2back NFC champions – they will not have 2 lousy games in a
row. That was their game to lose last weekend against Minnesota, not here on Sunday.
The Seahawks have had the #1 scoring defense in the NFL for 4 straight years
and in a revenge game off a bad performance, I love them to shut down Cam
Newton’s overrated offense this Sunday. Cam Newton and Ron Rivera can thank
Blair Walsh for being 1 and done, I fully expect Seattle to take care of
business in this game.
Great start to the playoffs last weekend coming away with
$3,865 in profit. Here’s what I’m playing this weekend:
Seattle
Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers
Cardinals, Panthers, and Packers can all thank Blair
Walsh for making their Superbowl run that much harder. The Vikings had what it
took to beat the Seahawks which was one of the reasons I played them very large
on the spread last Sunday. They had the weather factor, nothing to lose,
revenge, Mike Zimmer, a non-existent running game for Seattle, and a 9-0 lead
starting the 4th Q. The Seahawks were dead in the water for 50
minutes of that game.
Here’s the problem, all of that changes this week. First
of all, Marshawn Lynch had all the practice reps last week and then said he
wasn’t going to play late on Friday leaving Christine Michael to start with
basically 0 prep time with his offensive line. It was tough to sustain drives
on offense against Minnesota with a one-dimensional offense and going up
against all the intangible but Seattle will have the advantage this week.
First of all, Carolina had the easiest schedule in the
entire NFL – ranked 32nd out of 32 teams. Although they were 15-1
this season, they had a league high 8 wins that ended within 1 possession
(again against the worst schedule in the NFL). Second, Seattle had Carolina
beat in the first matchup this season when they were up 23-14 before late 4th
quarter heroics – Pete Carroll is no scrub, he’ll make the proper adjustments.
And third, the Seahawks just played a terrible game against Minny in some of
the harshest weather conditions in playoff history and still won on the road.
These are the back2back NFC champions – they will not have 2 lousy games in a
row. That was their game to lose last weekend against Minnesota, not here on Sunday.
The Seahawks have had the #1 scoring defense in the NFL for 4 straight years
and in a revenge game off a bad performance, I love them to shut down Cam
Newton’s overrated offense this Sunday. Cam Newton and Ron Rivera can thank
Blair Walsh for being 1 and done, I fully expect Seattle to take care of
business in this game.
It’s very easy to lean Denver in
this game. Pittsburgh is playing in their 4th straight road game
after 3 divisional opponents, are injured all over the place with Antonio Brown
and Big Ben, have to face a top Denver defense with extended rest, and barely
won in Cincinnati. There’s more to it if we look closer however.
Remember that Cincy was a trendy
pick last week due to the ‘due factor’, great defense, hate for Pittsburgh, and
overall solid team as the home underdog. People are going to look at the final
score and the 4thquarter
meltdown in Cincy and frown upon the Steelers as they ‘barely escaped’ but make
no mistake, Steelers absolutely dominated the Bengals and mopped the floor with
them for a majority of that game. Through the first 3 quarters before Big Ben
got injured which completely shifted momentum, the Steelers were up 15-0 and
nearly doubled the total yards of the Bengals 308-154. In the 3 possessions
with Landry Jones, the Steelers gained just 29 total yards with 2 punts and an
interception. Don’t look at Landry Jones ineptness for how this team will
perform this Sunday.
I have the Broncos to win the AFC
at +600 from earlier in the year but there is no way I believe they are the
right side in this game, even with Antonio Brown and Deangelo Williams out this
game and a hobbled Big Ben. Few reasons why:
The Broncos have the clear worst offense remaining among playoff
teams. Peyton Manning’s only advantage at this point is his ability to read
defenses and audible but he has very little arm strength left.
Manning came back in week 17 to win late against the Chargers but
it was mostly done on the ground with 200 rushing yards. The Chargers have one
of the worst rush defenses in the league, but the Steelers rank 5thin that department meaning Peyton will
need to be a factor in this game to win.
Although the Broncos have the
defense to win it all, laying 7 points against one of the most experienced
playoff teams in the league with a very lackluster Denver offense is a recipe
for disaster. I don’t see any way the Broncos blow the Steelers out in this
game. Their offense can prevent some long PITT drives, but I have 0 confidence
in Denver’s offense to put this game away. Nobody is giving Pittsburgh a chance
to win here either but let’s not forget this is a team that ran the table as a
6 seed in 2006. Big Ben will play, and the Steelers have championship pedigree
– regardless of what receivers are on the field for him. I expect a very close
game throughout and will gladly take the 7 points.
It’s very easy to lean Denver in
this game. Pittsburgh is playing in their 4th straight road game
after 3 divisional opponents, are injured all over the place with Antonio Brown
and Big Ben, have to face a top Denver defense with extended rest, and barely
won in Cincinnati. There’s more to it if we look closer however.
Remember that Cincy was a trendy
pick last week due to the ‘due factor’, great defense, hate for Pittsburgh, and
overall solid team as the home underdog. People are going to look at the final
score and the 4thquarter
meltdown in Cincy and frown upon the Steelers as they ‘barely escaped’ but make
no mistake, Steelers absolutely dominated the Bengals and mopped the floor with
them for a majority of that game. Through the first 3 quarters before Big Ben
got injured which completely shifted momentum, the Steelers were up 15-0 and
nearly doubled the total yards of the Bengals 308-154. In the 3 possessions
with Landry Jones, the Steelers gained just 29 total yards with 2 punts and an
interception. Don’t look at Landry Jones ineptness for how this team will
perform this Sunday.
I have the Broncos to win the AFC
at +600 from earlier in the year but there is no way I believe they are the
right side in this game, even with Antonio Brown and Deangelo Williams out this
game and a hobbled Big Ben. Few reasons why:
The Broncos have the clear worst offense remaining among playoff
teams. Peyton Manning’s only advantage at this point is his ability to read
defenses and audible but he has very little arm strength left.
Manning came back in week 17 to win late against the Chargers but
it was mostly done on the ground with 200 rushing yards. The Chargers have one
of the worst rush defenses in the league, but the Steelers rank 5thin that department meaning Peyton will
need to be a factor in this game to win.
Although the Broncos have the
defense to win it all, laying 7 points against one of the most experienced
playoff teams in the league with a very lackluster Denver offense is a recipe
for disaster. I don’t see any way the Broncos blow the Steelers out in this
game. Their offense can prevent some long PITT drives, but I have 0 confidence
in Denver’s offense to put this game away. Nobody is giving Pittsburgh a chance
to win here either but let’s not forget this is a team that ran the table as a
6 seed in 2006. Big Ben will play, and the Steelers have championship pedigree
– regardless of what receivers are on the field for him. I expect a very close
game throughout and will gladly take the 7 points.
Thanks for the post LC. Seeing Seattle at +2.5 right now. Would you still take it or do you think I should wait in hopes that it will get back to +3.0 within the next couple days. All the best this weekend.
Thanks for the post LC. Seeing Seattle at +2.5 right now. Would you still take it or do you think I should wait in hopes that it will get back to +3.0 within the next couple days. All the best this weekend.
Long live the Cap!!!...Breath of fresh air into this stale forum. At first glance I didn't see any punctuation problems in your thread but I fully expect coach Suuma to chime in and contaminate all over your leans. Keep posting!
Long live the Cap!!!...Breath of fresh air into this stale forum. At first glance I didn't see any punctuation problems in your thread but I fully expect coach Suuma to chime in and contaminate all over your leans. Keep posting!
As for Packers, I'm not a fan of teams who blowout an opponent in the non-traditional ways of a game. Arizona won 38-8 last time but James Starks fumble in their own redzone, Aaron Rodgers fumble returned for a TD etc. - Those were all plays that can't be counted on to be replicated. Packers coaching staff #1 priority will be to change protection for Rodgers since he was sacked 8 times last game, so I think there will be improvement in that regard. Arizona has several defenders that were in the first matchup that will be gone this game as well. I think Rodgers will have a much easier time this weekend. Also Packers will be a lot healthier.
Not playing the Pats. The game will be very low scoring, possibly the under is the best play. Everyone saying Chiefs will have trouble moving the ball but so will NE. I like the Patriots, but in a very low-scoring game, not excited to lay the 5 points. It's also worth noting that Vegas is playing the Chiefs here. I'm passing altogether but have the Patriots in a super teaser at +8.5. I don't think either team will reach more than 20 so it's tough to lay 5 points in that regard. If I played totals, i'd heavily consider the under
As for Packers, I'm not a fan of teams who blowout an opponent in the non-traditional ways of a game. Arizona won 38-8 last time but James Starks fumble in their own redzone, Aaron Rodgers fumble returned for a TD etc. - Those were all plays that can't be counted on to be replicated. Packers coaching staff #1 priority will be to change protection for Rodgers since he was sacked 8 times last game, so I think there will be improvement in that regard. Arizona has several defenders that were in the first matchup that will be gone this game as well. I think Rodgers will have a much easier time this weekend. Also Packers will be a lot healthier.
Not playing the Pats. The game will be very low scoring, possibly the under is the best play. Everyone saying Chiefs will have trouble moving the ball but so will NE. I like the Patriots, but in a very low-scoring game, not excited to lay the 5 points. It's also worth noting that Vegas is playing the Chiefs here. I'm passing altogether but have the Patriots in a super teaser at +8.5. I don't think either team will reach more than 20 so it's tough to lay 5 points in that regard. If I played totals, i'd heavily consider the under
LC, you know I love Seattle but think the Steelers are high risk here. The Broncos put on such a shameful performance in last year's playoffs that I see them coming out very strong in this one. They may not need Manning to do much and the Steelers are a total mystery at this point (who will play, how healthy are they, unless you have people on the inside you can't know). It's either Denver or nothing.
LC, you know I love Seattle but think the Steelers are high risk here. The Broncos put on such a shameful performance in last year's playoffs that I see them coming out very strong in this one. They may not need Manning to do much and the Steelers are a total mystery at this point (who will play, how healthy are they, unless you have people on the inside you can't know). It's either Denver or nothing.
If Lynch is a no go again this week I really don't think Seattle will get it done. They will surely miss those extra yards after contact that he so often gains. The Panthers may have had a weak schedule but who's fault is that? They lost 1 game. I care not who they played. Impressive none the less.
If Lynch is a no go again this week I really don't think Seattle will get it done. They will surely miss those extra yards after contact that he so often gains. The Panthers may have had a weak schedule but who's fault is that? They lost 1 game. I care not who they played. Impressive none the less.
Went 4-0 on the sides last week myself. Like Seattle. Also like Cardinals and Broncos. Surely one loses, just trying to figure out which. Leaning Chiefs but tough to pull that trigger.
Went 4-0 on the sides last week myself. Like Seattle. Also like Cardinals and Broncos. Surely one loses, just trying to figure out which. Leaning Chiefs but tough to pull that trigger.
What about the other totals? Any thoughts? I agree with the KC/NE under. Maclin probably a no go, which means KC is gonna have trouble as Bill B will take away Kelce.....I dont think West and Ware are good enough to win this game.....
What about the other totals? Any thoughts? I agree with the KC/NE under. Maclin probably a no go, which means KC is gonna have trouble as Bill B will take away Kelce.....I dont think West and Ware are good enough to win this game.....
I liked Denver initially but yesterday I looked more and more into that game and I came up with PM and his OL being the mismatch vs. the Steelers' front seven. The Steelers shut down some of the running game vs. a really good and experienced OL last week. They still ran for ~4.4 YPC or so but it wasn't enough to take pressure off of McCarron. They had 4.27 NYPPA - awful. You can't win games if your NYPPA is equal or just slightly over your YPC. If the Broncos can't run successfully, PM will be forced to make throws he doesn't want to do. On the other side I expect the Steelers to be very conservative on offense. Run some, maybe over Bryant, throw some short routes and try to put PM into bad field position. Could be a chess game. Definitely leaning Steelers +7 if available. It's off right now.
I liked Denver initially but yesterday I looked more and more into that game and I came up with PM and his OL being the mismatch vs. the Steelers' front seven. The Steelers shut down some of the running game vs. a really good and experienced OL last week. They still ran for ~4.4 YPC or so but it wasn't enough to take pressure off of McCarron. They had 4.27 NYPPA - awful. You can't win games if your NYPPA is equal or just slightly over your YPC. If the Broncos can't run successfully, PM will be forced to make throws he doesn't want to do. On the other side I expect the Steelers to be very conservative on offense. Run some, maybe over Bryant, throw some short routes and try to put PM into bad field position. Could be a chess game. Definitely leaning Steelers +7 if available. It's off right now.
Btw. Packers are +828 to win the NFC. I think they won't be more than +161 at home next week. +256 * +161 = +828. So if you think they can beat the Cards, it has value.
Btw. Packers are +828 to win the NFC. I think they won't be more than +161 at home next week. +256 * +161 = +828. So if you think they can beat the Cards, it has value.
The Pack's biggest challenge will be defending the blitz/pass rush like you said LC. They didn't run the hurry up against the Cards but did turn to it vs the Redskins after being down early.
Will they turn to it again? We will see if Arians gets his guys ready for it, especially when it involves player substitutions.
The Pack's biggest challenge will be defending the blitz/pass rush like you said LC. They didn't run the hurry up against the Cards but did turn to it vs the Redskins after being down early.
Will they turn to it again? We will see if Arians gets his guys ready for it, especially when it involves player substitutions.
The Pack's biggest challenge will be defending the blitz/pass rush like you said LC. They didn't run the hurry up against the Cards but did turn to it vs the Redskins after being down early.
Will they turn to it again? We will see if Arians gets his guys ready for it, especially when it involves player substitutions.
BOL LC
I am watching the tape right now from wk16. 4 of the first 5 sacks were directly on the backup-Tackles Barclay and Walker. The 5th was on Barclay's site when Sitton wanted to help. They won't play this time.
The Pack's biggest challenge will be defending the blitz/pass rush like you said LC. They didn't run the hurry up against the Cards but did turn to it vs the Redskins after being down early.
Will they turn to it again? We will see if Arians gets his guys ready for it, especially when it involves player substitutions.
BOL LC
I am watching the tape right now from wk16. 4 of the first 5 sacks were directly on the backup-Tackles Barclay and Walker. The 5th was on Barclay's site when Sitton wanted to help. They won't play this time.
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