Good morning, everyone. My first post on the Covers soccer forum. I have been waiting for this play for several weeks now since the UCL group play schedule was released and got the line I was hoping for this morning, so I am playing:
Bastia-PSG Under 2.5 -102 at 11:00am EST on Sat. 10/17
Let me start by saying that I realize that 95% of you in here probably hate unders, especially when it comes to soccer. However, my brain seems to be wired differently, as I love to play unders in any sport.
I am a huge fan of PSG, and no I did not become one over the past couple of years after the boys from Qatar bought the team and started spending gazillions of dollars each year on any player they could get their hands on. I became a fan of this team 20 years ago when I got to visit France on a college trip. I had never been to a professional soccer game before and got my first experience at the Parc des Princes in Paris to see a PSG match and have been a fan ever since.
Now that my team is a regular in the Champions League, one of my favorite days of the year from a soccer perspective is the UCL draw ceremony for the group stage. I get both nervous and excited watching those ping pong balls get opened up and waiting to see which team's piece of paper is going to be drawn. That may sound really stupid, but if you are a fan of Manchester United or Bayern Munich or Juventus or Barcelona or any other European power then you probably know what I am talking about.
As soon as Real Madrid was drawn into the same group as PSG, my very next thought was when do they play and who in the heck does PSG play right before that match? And if I am really lucky, that match before Real Madrid will be a road contest.
Well not only do I get a road game here at Bastia only 4 days before PSG's clash with Real Madrid, but I also get them coming off a 2-week break since their last game because of the Euro 2016 qualifiers. If that wasn't enough, that last game was against PSG's biggest rivals in Marseille, which is France's version of El Clasico.
If you were to look up "sandwich game" or "look ahead game" in the dictionary, there would be a picture of this situation. The fact of the matter about PSG is this right now. What they do in Ligue 1 no longer matters. They have won the title 3 years in a row, also winning the French treble last year. This team is going to be measured by what they do in the Champions League. Period. They have already toyed with Malmo and Shakhtar Donetsk, and this is the game they have been waiting for all season thus far against Real Madrid.
I feel as though I know enough about PSG in following them and having seen them do this on many occasions over the past few years that they will sleep walk through this game on Saturday against Bastia. This will be a very boring game as PSG simply tries to get through this match with one eye on next Wednesday.
Given the slow start by Lyon, Monaco, and Marseille this year's title chase will have none of the drama that 2014-15 brought for Ligue 1. Not even 1/4 of the season is done, and there is no doubt who the champion will be once again.
A couple of other points before concluding. Bastia has been very decent at home this season thus far, winning 3 of their 4 matches while only conceding 4 goals (3 of those came in one game against Nice.) So they should be able to push PSG a little bit in this match.
Last year in a similar situation, PSG went to Toulouse a few days before hosting Barcelona in UCL group play and played to an uninspired 1-1 draw. After giving up a goal in the 8th minute of that game, PSG was only able to score once against a team that finished one spot above relegation and allowed the 2nd most goals in Ligue 1 last season.
This game has 1-0 written all over it in my opinion, so the under should come in nicely. Good luck everyone.