Next write up:
USC (-27.5) vs. Arkansas State
"USC is overrated. USC is overrated" - that's what everybody is saying this preseason. Don't trust people who deal in extremes - they also probably bet and pick in extremes without much rational thought. So then SC won't cover at all this year? Forget that USC was 7-6 ATS last year. I'm not saying that's incredible - but that's hardly bad.
SC returns one of the best QBs in the nation in Cody Kessler. He will miss #1 WR Nelson Agholor (1st rd draft pick) but there is the talent in SC to at least partially replace him. #1 RB Javorious Allen will also likely have his shoes filled by SC incumbents - not worried about returning talent on this team. Entire OL returns and rates as one of best OLs in nation.
Defensively, the only massive loss is DE Leonard Williams (top 10 draft pick). Again, the depth chart is loaded with 4 and 5 star prospects and this team will have more roster depth than in years prior now that they are coming off sanctions.
Majority of DBs and LBers return. Experience will aid in loss of Williams.
For Ark State, I think they will really struggle in this matchup. Didn't face a team as talented as SC last season. Miami led by 27 entering 4Q last year (favored by 14.5). Tennessee led by 19 (favored by 16) entering 4Q last year and Ark State ended up covering a UT team who had Justin Worley starting at the time.
SC covered as big home faves last year vs. Fresno State (covered by 20) and Colorado (covered by 8).
Ark State returns starting QB (though he's not excellent) and nearly all RB/WR talent. Lost 2 starters on OL though neither one garnered any Sun Belt awards. Majority of 2-deep DL returns though very small not much talent. Lost starting MLB and 4/5 starters from DB though some think they could be adequate in the back.
Ark State FG kickers only 3/7 from 40+ last season. Crucial in covering close spreads edge here for USC.
Conclusion: Arkansas State will really struggle with size and athleticism in the trenches in this game. SC should put up massive offensive #s in this game. Here are ASU rankings in terms of defensive yardage players from scrimmage:
20+ yards: 91st
30+ yards: 98th
40+ yards: 104th
50+ yards: 120th
70+ yards: 116th
ASU isn't putting any defensive players in NFL next season. USC will. ASU didn't face a QB like Kessler last year. Also keep in mind - ASU is in the SUN BELT CONFERENCE. Their difficult non-conference schedule included Montana State, Tennessee (Worley - who is bad), Miami (true fresh Brad Kaaya lit them up), and Utah State. Their passing defense gave up less than 7 ypa. How in the world did they give up so many big plays last year?
ASU also ranked 29th nationally in defensive 3rd down %?????
This game evaluation basically comes down to power ratings. I have the line at -29 (USC #5, ASU #87).
Still going to consider a small play here on USC, but you have to respect that Agholor and Williams could be huge losses in short term. Deep down, I think SC will roll with that big OL vs. small size of ASU...but we'll see.