I’ve followed a few systems for multiples years that I have high confidence in; I’m investing heavily in them this summer - and I figured I'd share them here, They are all from this forum more or less with a few variations. I'll also be sharing them on Twitter (I'd give you my username but I'm not sure if it violates Covers' rules, PM me if interested), and may start a Google Doc if I can find some time. Here are the systems I'll be following:
1.) 5-Run LOSS Chase (founded by flwareagle)
The 5-run LOSS chase involves chasing a team for 4 games who recently lost by 5 runs. Specifically, when a team with a record of over .525 loses a game by 5 or more runs – I skip two games then begin to chase them for a win.
2.) 5-Run WIN Chase (founded by Cisco.)
The 5-run WIN chase is essentially the opposite of the 5-Run LOSS chase. This system involves fading a team with a record of under .470 who wins by 5 or more runs. Again, we skip two games after the win before beginning the chase.
A note: Bart graciously runs these systems on a Google doc that can be found here. However, he skips two more games if a team wins or loses by 5+ runs during a chase.. I won’t do that here.
3.)Home Team Fade (founded by BDNews)
Finally, this system involves fading a home team that just came off of a 6 games or more road-stand. BD used this for every team, but I’m only going to fade teams under .470 for this one. My confidence in this system isn’t necessarily as high as the others.
I’ve followed a few systems for multiples years that I have high confidence in; I’m investing heavily in them this summer - and I figured I'd share them here, They are all from this forum more or less with a few variations. I'll also be sharing them on Twitter (I'd give you my username but I'm not sure if it violates Covers' rules, PM me if interested), and may start a Google Doc if I can find some time. Here are the systems I'll be following:
1.) 5-Run LOSS Chase (founded by flwareagle)
The 5-run LOSS chase involves chasing a team for 4 games who recently lost by 5 runs. Specifically, when a team with a record of over .525 loses a game by 5 or more runs – I skip two games then begin to chase them for a win.
2.) 5-Run WIN Chase (founded by Cisco.)
The 5-run WIN chase is essentially the opposite of the 5-Run LOSS chase. This system involves fading a team with a record of under .470 who wins by 5 or more runs. Again, we skip two games after the win before beginning the chase.
A note: Bart graciously runs these systems on a Google doc that can be found here. However, he skips two more games if a team wins or loses by 5+ runs during a chase.. I won’t do that here.
3.)Home Team Fade (founded by BDNews)
Finally, this system involves fading a home team that just came off of a 6 games or more road-stand. BD used this for every team, but I’m only going to fade teams under .470 for this one. My confidence in this system isn’t necessarily as high as the others.
The most important aspect of following a chase system (or betting in general) is money management. You should know the volatility of the system you’re playing, how much you can afford to lose, and the amount you would like to win. With that said, here are my goals for the season and each system.
5-Run Loss Chase: 50 units 5-Run Win Chase: 50 units Home Team fade: 20 units
My plan is to stop playing each system once (if) we hit these goals.
My bank will consist of 100 units at the start of the season. Each series will be to win 1 unit. After I each series win, I will put half of the winnings in the bank and half in an imaginary “pocket" (thanks to DanRules for giving me this idea). I will then divide the bank by 100 to get a new unit amount and won't touch the pocket. Here’s an example:
Starting bank: $1000 Starting pocket: $0 Unit Size: $10
The most important aspect of following a chase system (or betting in general) is money management. You should know the volatility of the system you’re playing, how much you can afford to lose, and the amount you would like to win. With that said, here are my goals for the season and each system.
5-Run Loss Chase: 50 units 5-Run Win Chase: 50 units Home Team fade: 20 units
My plan is to stop playing each system once (if) we hit these goals.
My bank will consist of 100 units at the start of the season. Each series will be to win 1 unit. After I each series win, I will put half of the winnings in the bank and half in an imaginary “pocket" (thanks to DanRules for giving me this idea). I will then divide the bank by 100 to get a new unit amount and won't touch the pocket. Here’s an example:
Starting bank: $1000 Starting pocket: $0 Unit Size: $10
Things are a bit wacky in April. Teams are getting their legs under them and we can’t really separate the contenders from the pretenders. Thus, similar to Bart, I limit the betting of each system to 10 teams – all decided by preseason odds to win a championship. Only these teams can qualify for a chase during April, and their records have to fall into the criteria at the start of the chase.
Teams for 5-Run Loss Chase: Nationals, Dodgers, Red Sox, St. Louis, Chicago, Angels, Cubs, Mariners, Tigers, Giants
Teams for 5-Run Win Chase, Home Team Fade: Phillies, Dbacks, Twins, Braves, Reds, Rangers, Rockies, Astros, Rays, Brewers
—
Plays should start popping up about a week from now. Let's have a successful season.
Things are a bit wacky in April. Teams are getting their legs under them and we can’t really separate the contenders from the pretenders. Thus, similar to Bart, I limit the betting of each system to 10 teams – all decided by preseason odds to win a championship. Only these teams can qualify for a chase during April, and their records have to fall into the criteria at the start of the chase.
Teams for 5-Run Loss Chase: Nationals, Dodgers, Red Sox, St. Louis, Chicago, Angels, Cubs, Mariners, Tigers, Giants
Teams for 5-Run Win Chase, Home Team Fade: Phillies, Dbacks, Twins, Braves, Reds, Rangers, Rockies, Astros, Rays, Brewers
—
Plays should start popping up about a week from now. Let's have a successful season.
Beefman have you some record of these chases? Like how many times they won/lost?
Unfortunately I don't. The only knowledge I have is that they've worked well for me in the past -, enough so that I'm willing to invest in them this summer. Bart or flwareagle may have some more detailed numbers from the first two systems, the Home Fade did well the year before last with all teams.
Although I'm confident in this method, like any system there is a chance that this will crash and burn. Prepare yourself accordingly if you choose to tail.
Beefman have you some record of these chases? Like how many times they won/lost?
Unfortunately I don't. The only knowledge I have is that they've worked well for me in the past -, enough so that I'm willing to invest in them this summer. Bart or flwareagle may have some more detailed numbers from the first two systems, the Home Fade did well the year before last with all teams.
Although I'm confident in this method, like any system there is a chance that this will crash and burn. Prepare yourself accordingly if you choose to tail.
Things are a bit wacky in April. Teams are getting their legs under them and we can’t really separate the contenders from the pretenders. Thus, similar to Bart, I limit the betting of each system to 10 teams – all decided by preseason odds to win a championship. Only these teams can qualify for a chase during April, and their records have to fall into the criteria at the start of the chase.
Teams for 5-Run Loss Chase: Nationals, Dodgers, Red Sox, St. Louis, Chicago, Angels, Cubs, Mariners, Tigers, Giants
Teams for 5-Run Win Chase, Home Team Fade: Phillies, Dbacks, Twins, Braves, Reds, Rangers, Rockies, Astros, Rays, Brewers
—
Plays should start popping up about a week from now. Let's have a successful season.
One correction, for the 5 Run Win Chase (under 470), it should be MIA, not ATL. MIA is +4911. ATL is +4146
Things are a bit wacky in April. Teams are getting their legs under them and we can’t really separate the contenders from the pretenders. Thus, similar to Bart, I limit the betting of each system to 10 teams – all decided by preseason odds to win a championship. Only these teams can qualify for a chase during April, and their records have to fall into the criteria at the start of the chase.
Teams for 5-Run Loss Chase: Nationals, Dodgers, Red Sox, St. Louis, Chicago, Angels, Cubs, Mariners, Tigers, Giants
Teams for 5-Run Win Chase, Home Team Fade: Phillies, Dbacks, Twins, Braves, Reds, Rangers, Rockies, Astros, Rays, Brewers
—
Plays should start popping up about a week from now. Let's have a successful season.
One correction, for the 5 Run Win Chase (under 470), it should be MIA, not ATL. MIA is +4911. ATL is +4146
So this will be official thread for all three systems?
For the way I'm playing them, yes.
Bart has a Google doc in a separate thread that him and Cisco have been running for a few years. The only difference here is that I won't be skipping 2 games if a team wins by 5+ during a series. This will result in more plays- but his method has been back tested a bit more thoroughly.
So this will be official thread for all three systems?
For the way I'm playing them, yes.
Bart has a Google doc in a separate thread that him and Cisco have been running for a few years. The only difference here is that I won't be skipping 2 games if a team wins by 5+ during a series. This will result in more plays- but his method has been back tested a bit more thoroughly.
First play of the season today. This one qualifies for two systems (5 run win and home fade) but I'm only going to play it as one series. No use for the extra risk.
First play of the season today. This one qualifies for two systems (5 run win and home fade) but I'm only going to play it as one series. No use for the extra risk.
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