Yes, we are going with Portugal here. Call me a homer? Call me a square? Go right ahead.
Finally the price of Portugal has dropped to -115/-110 which is standard juice and I am not only compelled to take them, it is my responsibility to take them.
Here are my reasons:
1) You will almost never find gross overvaluation and undervaluation of teams like you do in the WC.
After a single win over Ghana, the US is looking to 'move on' (in a WC where the head coach has said they have no chance of winning but even signaled competing is a longshot).
Portugal on the other hand is 'holding on for dear life'.
Folks, it's been ONE GAME. Yes one game matters. In the NFL, it's one and done.
Here that is not the case. If Portugal wins, suddenly they are not only at the top of the pack but in position to win the group.
What does this all mean?
There is a gross overvaluation of the US and a gross undervaluation of Portugal.
The odds reflect that in a big way (in part). Go with the odds on this one (and take the price offered on Portugal).
Yes, we are going with Portugal here. Call me a homer? Call me a square? Go right ahead.
Finally the price of Portugal has dropped to -115/-110 which is standard juice and I am not only compelled to take them, it is my responsibility to take them.
Here are my reasons:
1) You will almost never find gross overvaluation and undervaluation of teams like you do in the WC.
After a single win over Ghana, the US is looking to 'move on' (in a WC where the head coach has said they have no chance of winning but even signaled competing is a longshot).
Portugal on the other hand is 'holding on for dear life'.
Folks, it's been ONE GAME. Yes one game matters. In the NFL, it's one and done.
Here that is not the case. If Portugal wins, suddenly they are not only at the top of the pack but in position to win the group.
What does this all mean?
There is a gross overvaluation of the US and a gross undervaluation of Portugal.
The odds reflect that in a big way (in part). Go with the odds on this one (and take the price offered on Portugal).
I defer to Vanzack in the soccer forum on this one. He has a good write-up on this game. He is the best of the best when it comes to the WC
But the one thing that stands out about his write-up and this game is that it is conditional. He says if he were the US head coach, he'd do this and he'd do that, but there is no telling what he will actually do.
That's a big if. This isn't like the NBA where we know what will will get from Lebron, Timmy, and KD. This is WC soccer and if there is one thing you can depend on more often than not, it is for the US to falter, even in a group stage against the decimated Portugal team.
Because of that conditional basis of Van's write-up, I will trust Portugal's remaining talent and headcoaching to one-up the US here.
I defer to Vanzack in the soccer forum on this one. He has a good write-up on this game. He is the best of the best when it comes to the WC
But the one thing that stands out about his write-up and this game is that it is conditional. He says if he were the US head coach, he'd do this and he'd do that, but there is no telling what he will actually do.
That's a big if. This isn't like the NBA where we know what will will get from Lebron, Timmy, and KD. This is WC soccer and if there is one thing you can depend on more often than not, it is for the US to falter, even in a group stage against the decimated Portugal team.
Because of that conditional basis of Van's write-up, I will trust Portugal's remaining talent and headcoaching to one-up the US here.
Obvious. Portugal's done if they lose and are even possibly done if they tie.
The issue here is how many big dog's have already fallen. Portugal plays this match in the face of Spain falling after its first two games.
Does that matter? Yes. That foreknowledge comes into play here. So many big and minor favorites have fallen so early, Portugal will do everything possible to keep its county name off the list of failures.
The US conversely is not desperate to win this game. If they lose it, it does set up a very tough against Germany so they will play for a tie (yes, they will go conservative) and that sets up Portugal to attack and be aggressive. It will pay off. Take Portugal.
4) Ghana
Folks, I know the US be Ghana. But if you look at the shots on goal, the possession time and the overall play, on paper, without the score it will look like Ghana won.
Shoulda, coula, woulda, for Ghana.
The problem is those two goals, one by a mere nanometer past the goalie's extended foot, tell me Portugal will capitalize and luck will no longer play a factor. US beat Ghana. Great job.
But now Portugal is on the field. And they will win.
Abandon the draw odds and take a great price for Portugal to win here.
The price is simply too good to pass up even with all the injuries (and there is more than enough on Portugal to make up for that to get a win here).
Obvious. Portugal's done if they lose and are even possibly done if they tie.
The issue here is how many big dog's have already fallen. Portugal plays this match in the face of Spain falling after its first two games.
Does that matter? Yes. That foreknowledge comes into play here. So many big and minor favorites have fallen so early, Portugal will do everything possible to keep its county name off the list of failures.
The US conversely is not desperate to win this game. If they lose it, it does set up a very tough against Germany so they will play for a tie (yes, they will go conservative) and that sets up Portugal to attack and be aggressive. It will pay off. Take Portugal.
4) Ghana
Folks, I know the US be Ghana. But if you look at the shots on goal, the possession time and the overall play, on paper, without the score it will look like Ghana won.
Shoulda, coula, woulda, for Ghana.
The problem is those two goals, one by a mere nanometer past the goalie's extended foot, tell me Portugal will capitalize and luck will no longer play a factor. US beat Ghana. Great job.
But now Portugal is on the field. And they will win.
Abandon the draw odds and take a great price for Portugal to win here.
The price is simply too good to pass up even with all the injuries (and there is more than enough on Portugal to make up for that to get a win here).
U are crazy Big giveaway is how amazingly great ghana is vs usa. Vs. Germany. Ghana almost killed germany. Usa handle ghana good and looks amazing Portugal is always going to be overvalued due to ronaldo.
U are crazy Big giveaway is how amazingly great ghana is vs usa. Vs. Germany. Ghana almost killed germany. Usa handle ghana good and looks amazing Portugal is always going to be overvalued due to ronaldo.
I agree with your pick but apart from Part 4 of the analysis I don't see any real conclusive facts about why they would win.
Don't get me wrong, I like your approach but do you really think that the elimination of Spain changes anything? These guys play on a high level since they were about 14 years old, they already know that favorites can fall.
The reason I am relatively big on Portugal is something else:
Look at where Portugal's strongest players are: On the wing. Taken the injuries into consideration, Ronaldo and Nani will be key players tonight. And even though Fabian Johnson is a great player, and was one of the best (if not the best) player in the Ghana game, Ronaldo is a tough matchup. The bigger problem is Beasley, basically every time the opposing player tried something against him - he was succesfull. He will need major support tonight and that could open up space for other players.
Moreover, Ronaldo was too selfish last game. Whatever one may think of him, he is smart enough to know that today he will need to include other players more. The game against Germany does not portray Portugal's potential, they have an excellent offense that will likely keep the US busy today.
On the other hand, Johansson to me is not an adequate substitution than Altidore. And I would be surprised if Berti can come up with some formation or tactical plays that will make the offense more dangerous, after all Berti is a rather defensive-minded coach. Klinsmann is mostly there for motivation purposes, but he is really good at that.
Anyhow, wish you best of luck although personally I wouldn't mind seeing the US boys win.
I agree with your pick but apart from Part 4 of the analysis I don't see any real conclusive facts about why they would win.
Don't get me wrong, I like your approach but do you really think that the elimination of Spain changes anything? These guys play on a high level since they were about 14 years old, they already know that favorites can fall.
The reason I am relatively big on Portugal is something else:
Look at where Portugal's strongest players are: On the wing. Taken the injuries into consideration, Ronaldo and Nani will be key players tonight. And even though Fabian Johnson is a great player, and was one of the best (if not the best) player in the Ghana game, Ronaldo is a tough matchup. The bigger problem is Beasley, basically every time the opposing player tried something against him - he was succesfull. He will need major support tonight and that could open up space for other players.
Moreover, Ronaldo was too selfish last game. Whatever one may think of him, he is smart enough to know that today he will need to include other players more. The game against Germany does not portray Portugal's potential, they have an excellent offense that will likely keep the US busy today.
On the other hand, Johansson to me is not an adequate substitution than Altidore. And I would be surprised if Berti can come up with some formation or tactical plays that will make the offense more dangerous, after all Berti is a rather defensive-minded coach. Klinsmann is mostly there for motivation purposes, but he is really good at that.
Anyhow, wish you best of luck although personally I wouldn't mind seeing the US boys win.
how can you say in point 2 that van's points are conditional b/c no one knows what the US head coach will do and then say in point 3 that the US aren't desperate to win the game and they will play for a tie. That is a very conditional statement.
how can you say in point 2 that van's points are conditional b/c no one knows what the US head coach will do and then say in point 3 that the US aren't desperate to win the game and they will play for a tie. That is a very conditional statement.
I will throw a unit on this Scal. I also threw $25 on GER at +400 yesterday for the flyin F of it. I figure the odds can only go up after they make dirty work of the USA. GL 2night
I will throw a unit on this Scal. I also threw $25 on GER at +400 yesterday for the flyin F of it. I figure the odds can only go up after they make dirty work of the USA. GL 2night
Hey Scal, didn't know you do soccer. Nice to see you here. I thought I was done betting for a while but love soccer and I've been going back and forth on this game. I love Port as well and think a lot of guys are betting with their heart here. Will probably wait till game time.
Hey Scal, didn't know you do soccer. Nice to see you here. I thought I was done betting for a while but love soccer and I've been going back and forth on this game. I love Port as well and think a lot of guys are betting with their heart here. Will probably wait till game time.
Hey Scal, didn't know you do soccer. Nice to see you here. I thought I was done betting for a while but love soccer and I've been going back and forth on this game. I love Port as well and think a lot of guys are betting with their heart here. Will probably wait till game time.
There is more money bet on this sport than anything else all over the world.The public is on Mighty Portugal.This is being bet all over the world.
Portugal is flat and under pressure much like the defending champion spaniards.The US is an under rated dog.Ill take the +.5 and look for a feisty fired American team to keep this one close.Never under estimate the heart of an American.
Hey Scal, didn't know you do soccer. Nice to see you here. I thought I was done betting for a while but love soccer and I've been going back and forth on this game. I love Port as well and think a lot of guys are betting with their heart here. Will probably wait till game time.
There is more money bet on this sport than anything else all over the world.The public is on Mighty Portugal.This is being bet all over the world.
Portugal is flat and under pressure much like the defending champion spaniards.The US is an under rated dog.Ill take the +.5 and look for a feisty fired American team to keep this one close.Never under estimate the heart of an American.
Portugal looked rock solid in the matches before the world cup. They had convincing wins, for example against cameroon (5-1...germany played 2-2 against them some days later). Portugal is strong, even without ronaldo. Just take a look at the midfield...moutinho, veloso, meireles. These guys will dominate and put pressure on the US defense. And ronaldo, nani or postiga will finish them. People underestimate Portugal because of the 0-4 against germany. But the final score doesnt show reality. Many things went wrong in this game, specially the red card. I know the US team won against ghana. But not against a strong ghana. They were shocked by the ealy goal and needed time to recover. Finally they scored after many chances. And at the end the US wins through a corner kick. Nobody can deny that it was a lucky win. And Ghana should have scored at least 2-3 times. I agree with scal. You can ave luck in one match, but you wont have it twice. People say portugal has injury problems. True. But if your focussing on that...how can you not see that even the substitutes or two levels better than the US boys. Dont bet with your heart. Take Portugal ML or enjoy the match without your money on it.
Portugal looked rock solid in the matches before the world cup. They had convincing wins, for example against cameroon (5-1...germany played 2-2 against them some days later). Portugal is strong, even without ronaldo. Just take a look at the midfield...moutinho, veloso, meireles. These guys will dominate and put pressure on the US defense. And ronaldo, nani or postiga will finish them. People underestimate Portugal because of the 0-4 against germany. But the final score doesnt show reality. Many things went wrong in this game, specially the red card. I know the US team won against ghana. But not against a strong ghana. They were shocked by the ealy goal and needed time to recover. Finally they scored after many chances. And at the end the US wins through a corner kick. Nobody can deny that it was a lucky win. And Ghana should have scored at least 2-3 times. I agree with scal. You can ave luck in one match, but you wont have it twice. People say portugal has injury problems. True. But if your focussing on that...how can you not see that even the substitutes or two levels better than the US boys. Dont bet with your heart. Take Portugal ML or enjoy the match without your money on it.
Portugal looked rock solid in the matches before the world cup. They had convincing wins, for example against cameroon (5-1...germany played 2-2 against them some days later). Portugal is strong, even without ronaldo. Just take a look at the midfield...moutinho, veloso, meireles. These guys will dominate and put pressure on the US defense. And ronaldo, nani or postiga will finish them. People underestimate Portugal because of the 0-4 against germany. But the final score doesnt show reality. Many things went wrong in this game, specially the red card. I know the US team won against ghana. But not against a strong ghana. They were shocked by the ealy goal and needed time to recover. Finally they scored after many chances. And at the end the US wins through a corner kick. Nobody can deny that it was a lucky win. And Ghana should have scored at least 2-3 times. I agree with scal. You can ave luck in one match, but you wont have it twice. People say portugal has injury problems. True. But if your focussing on that...how can you not see that even the substitutes or two levels better than the US boys. Dont bet with your heart. Take Portugal ML or enjoy the match without your money on it.
Portugal looked rock solid in the matches before the world cup. They had convincing wins, for example against cameroon (5-1...germany played 2-2 against them some days later). Portugal is strong, even without ronaldo. Just take a look at the midfield...moutinho, veloso, meireles. These guys will dominate and put pressure on the US defense. And ronaldo, nani or postiga will finish them. People underestimate Portugal because of the 0-4 against germany. But the final score doesnt show reality. Many things went wrong in this game, specially the red card. I know the US team won against ghana. But not against a strong ghana. They were shocked by the ealy goal and needed time to recover. Finally they scored after many chances. And at the end the US wins through a corner kick. Nobody can deny that it was a lucky win. And Ghana should have scored at least 2-3 times. I agree with scal. You can ave luck in one match, but you wont have it twice. People say portugal has injury problems. True. But if your focussing on that...how can you not see that even the substitutes or two levels better than the US boys. Dont bet with your heart. Take Portugal ML or enjoy the match without your money on it.
For everything I did right with the Chile pick, I did wrong with this one.
Honestly, if I knew their would be 20 comments on the game which are in this thread I may have been convinced to switch sides because there are some good points here. Didn't come back to the thread though.
Bb, we bet on ANYTHING where money can be made. None to be made here unfortunately.
@figgy- highly disappointed here. Thought I could come through with this pick. Ya still got Germany of course.
For everything I did right with the Chile pick, I did wrong with this one.
Honestly, if I knew their would be 20 comments on the game which are in this thread I may have been convinced to switch sides because there are some good points here. Didn't come back to the thread though.
Bb, we bet on ANYTHING where money can be made. None to be made here unfortunately.
@figgy- highly disappointed here. Thought I could come through with this pick. Ya still got Germany of course.
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