I know it is rare to pass on a full card Tuesday but the lines just did
not strike me as kosher. Call it a bad “smell” or whatever else but the longer
I looked the lines were either too good to be true or just too accurate to be
played. Today is different and those that think the Tribe just beat the Tigers
best should be ready for a strong cup of coffee and a reality check. The team
is now 7-3 when Verlander takes the ball, but he personally is just 5-5 head to
head with his opposite number. They are 7-2 when Scherzer takes the ball but
he, personally, is 9-0, having bested every single chucker he has gone head to
head with, and they don’t get much worse than McAllister. My numbers indicate
an offensive advantage for the Tigers also, but even without it Scherzer versus
McAllister rates a -213 line.
Someone is bound to ask “why not the run line on the first 5 innings?”
Well, I have this thing you don’t have to believe in or accept or follow or
anything else, do whatever you want, but I will not lay both odds and runs on the
same play. Scherzer is currently -.5, -110 on the 5 inning line and I
ain’t gonna do it, period.
BOL
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
I know it is rare to pass on a full card Tuesday but the lines just did
not strike me as kosher. Call it a bad “smell” or whatever else but the longer
I looked the lines were either too good to be true or just too accurate to be
played. Today is different and those that think the Tribe just beat the Tigers
best should be ready for a strong cup of coffee and a reality check. The team
is now 7-3 when Verlander takes the ball, but he personally is just 5-5 head to
head with his opposite number. They are 7-2 when Scherzer takes the ball but
he, personally, is 9-0, having bested every single chucker he has gone head to
head with, and they don’t get much worse than McAllister. My numbers indicate
an offensive advantage for the Tigers also, but even without it Scherzer versus
McAllister rates a -213 line.
Someone is bound to ask “why not the run line on the first 5 innings?”
Well, I have this thing you don’t have to believe in or accept or follow or
anything else, do whatever you want, but I will not lay both odds and runs on the
same play. Scherzer is currently -.5, -110 on the 5 inning line and I
ain’t gonna do it, period.
Mad Max has been even better this year than last, surprising us all. More impressive is that he struggled with his control last game, fought through it, and ended up w a more than quality start. Shows his confidence and maturity. While there are no locks in this racket, this is a great spot for a Tiger team that competes (avoid sweep) and an early start/getaway.
Let's go on a little run....thanks for promoting the Astros this year, they have been profitable....those guys can pitch (maybe not last night, ha)
Mad Max has been even better this year than last, surprising us all. More impressive is that he struggled with his control last game, fought through it, and ended up w a more than quality start. Shows his confidence and maturity. While there are no locks in this racket, this is a great spot for a Tiger team that competes (avoid sweep) and an early start/getaway.
Let's go on a little run....thanks for promoting the Astros this year, they have been profitable....those guys can pitch (maybe not last night, ha)
With you on this one. Was surprised you weren't on Iwakuma last night. Let's start this day off right.
Tiger, you know me too well. As I was tossing out games left and right yesterday I told myself that was the ONE game I would regret passing on, lol. Yeah, I should have gone ahead with that one.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
With you on this one. Was surprised you weren't on Iwakuma last night. Let's start this day off right.
Tiger, you know me too well. As I was tossing out games left and right yesterday I told myself that was the ONE game I would regret passing on, lol. Yeah, I should have gone ahead with that one.
with you on detroit was just wondering have you ever played your system to always bet a certain amount as opposed to always risking a certain amount ?? did it take a toll because of the juice ?
with you on detroit was just wondering have you ever played your system to always bet a certain amount as opposed to always risking a certain amount ?? did it take a toll because of the juice ?
with you on detroit was just wondering have you ever played your system to always bet a certain amount as opposed to always risking a certain amount ?? did it take a toll because of the juice ?
Not really sure what you are asking here, but if you mean do I ever "add the juice" the answer is no. Every play is a FLAT 2% of existing bankroll. Why? Because the quoted (posted, offered, etc.) odds have nothing to do with win probability. A favorite is not worth a greater risk just because they are the favorite. Hope that helps.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
with you on detroit was just wondering have you ever played your system to always bet a certain amount as opposed to always risking a certain amount ?? did it take a toll because of the juice ?
Not really sure what you are asking here, but if you mean do I ever "add the juice" the answer is no. Every play is a FLAT 2% of existing bankroll. Why? Because the quoted (posted, offered, etc.) odds have nothing to do with win probability. A favorite is not worth a greater risk just because they are the favorite. Hope that helps.
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