Win some lose some. All we can do is try to pick more winners than losers.
Clemson -7
Belmont TT Under 65 Large!
Just a bad matchup for Belmont. In a battle of offense vs. defense this is where good offenses go to die. Clemson struggles with other defense-oriented teams...Illinois...Virginia...Pittsburgh even. But when a good shooting team runs into Clemson the results seem to be the same. They all get beat by DD. Here's some good offenses that played Clemson this season (either @ Clemson or neutral site):
VMI - 2nd in the nation in ppg...lost to Clemson by 30
Davidson - 27th in ppg...lost to Clemson by 31
Duke - 24th in ppg...lost by 13
Ga. State - 28th in ppg...lost by 12
Belmont - 15th in ppg...lose by ?
Belmont can shoot the 3. Clemson gives up the lowest 3pt% in the nation.
Other stats:
Belmont ranks 286th in fouls committed, Clemson ranks 5th (and shoots 77% from the line).
Belmont ranks 316th in offensive rebounds, Clemson 118th.
Belmont ranks 243rd in turnovers, Clemson 59th.
Georgia State is a better team than Belmont and actually played a solid game against Clemson. They won the turnover battle, offensive rebound battle, and hit 13/14 free throws. And lost by 12.
Belmont just isn't used to playing against this caliber of defense. The only defense worth anything they played this season was VCU in a home game and they lost by 13.
Maybe the extra rest helps Belmont out here. Clemson isn't the deepest of teams and they're playing on one day of rest. Who knows really? I'm wrong plenty but if I have to weigh some rest against the rest of the evidence stacked against Belmont, I'll take my chances with Clemson.
As for the Belmont TT under 65 pick here's my reasoning. Here's what all of the good offensive teams scored against Clemson:
Duke 59
VMI 50
Davidson 54
Ga. State 66 (winning the TO and OR battle and hitting 13/14 FT)
Belmont ?
I don't see Belmont shooting 93% from the line and winning the turnover/offensive rebound battle to fare as well as Ga. State did. I think it's an easy TT under.
I'm leaning S. Miss. +5 but still undecided. S. Miss is the better offensive rebounding team and is much better than Minnesota at forcing turnovers. The one thing I don't like is this will be the 2nd road game in 3 days for S. Miss and it muddies the capping waters a little bit.
Good luck and go Clemson!