Well that didnt copy and paste very well. But u get the idea. These are for the first week of games. The shitty table there shows the Sagarin ratings for each team, difference between those after the = sign, this is what the sagarin ratings predict the line to be without accounting for any Homefield edge. then in parenthesis is the difference between Sagarin and the betting line (may be off from the current line)
Well that didnt copy and paste very well. But u get the idea. These are for the first week of games. The shitty table there shows the Sagarin ratings for each team, difference between those after the = sign, this is what the sagarin ratings predict the line to be without accounting for any Homefield edge. then in parenthesis is the difference between Sagarin and the betting line (may be off from the current line)
Trying to assess the value of this, but wanted to put it together to see what it looked like.
At first glance it Seemed like Sagarin had a general bias toward the favorite , but its really pretty even favs and dogs, the games with the biggest differences are scewed towards favorites. (WSU,, USC, and Buffalo if you they are even favored at this point)
Saggarin is high on the P12 generally.
Any thoughts on the value of this information / analysis interpretation would be be appreciated
Trying to assess the value of this, but wanted to put it together to see what it looked like.
At first glance it Seemed like Sagarin had a general bias toward the favorite , but its really pretty even favs and dogs, the games with the biggest differences are scewed towards favorites. (WSU,, USC, and Buffalo if you they are even favored at this point)
Saggarin is high on the P12 generally.
Any thoughts on the value of this information / analysis interpretation would be be appreciated
I have tracked this kind of stuff for years. It is not predictive. Sometimes Vegas is right (ie the line is off SAG by 4 or more), and sometimes the computer is right. I believe that over the years the Vegas line is the best predictor. (also take a look a the prediction tracker .com site as it compiles all the computer rankings)
Here is how I think about this: If the computers say that Wazzou is 14 points better than CSU, why did the line come out at 3? All of us have access to the information above, and it is easy to find the discrepancies. Seems that the linesmakers are not afraid of Wazzou money, or USC money. And they got it.
Wazzou is a heavily bet public fav. In another thread someone laid out the raw numbers. Glaring SOS difference in this game has me on Wazzou. If it loses, I will feel like an idiot because I am betting against the linesmakers.
USC less so, as the Fresno money is starting to come in based off USC crapping themselves in Sun bowl last year, coaching change, and how they no showed vs UCLA. My intital lean was USC, but it has become a no play or Fresno. Fresno impressed with how they bouncd back from SJst loss and dominated a solid Utah state team. They seem to have the major motivation edge.
I have tracked this kind of stuff for years. It is not predictive. Sometimes Vegas is right (ie the line is off SAG by 4 or more), and sometimes the computer is right. I believe that over the years the Vegas line is the best predictor. (also take a look a the prediction tracker .com site as it compiles all the computer rankings)
Here is how I think about this: If the computers say that Wazzou is 14 points better than CSU, why did the line come out at 3? All of us have access to the information above, and it is easy to find the discrepancies. Seems that the linesmakers are not afraid of Wazzou money, or USC money. And they got it.
Wazzou is a heavily bet public fav. In another thread someone laid out the raw numbers. Glaring SOS difference in this game has me on Wazzou. If it loses, I will feel like an idiot because I am betting against the linesmakers.
USC less so, as the Fresno money is starting to come in based off USC crapping themselves in Sun bowl last year, coaching change, and how they no showed vs UCLA. My intital lean was USC, but it has become a no play or Fresno. Fresno impressed with how they bouncd back from SJst loss and dominated a solid Utah state team. They seem to have the major motivation edge.
The Sagarin data essentially confirms the quote "You are what your record says you are". It assigns numeric values to specific performance based criteria/data and simplifies it for us. It's a solid component for your capping "toolbox"...and a good resource that meshes well with other angles/approaches.
Just keep in mind it is not Biff's Sports Almanac.
The Sagarin data essentially confirms the quote "You are what your record says you are". It assigns numeric values to specific performance based criteria/data and simplifies it for us. It's a solid component for your capping "toolbox"...and a good resource that meshes well with other angles/approaches.
Just keep in mind it is not Biff's Sports Almanac.
As Door54 suggests above, one thing you can say with certainty about the Sagarin data is that it cannot/ does not account or adjust for specific situational off-field factors.
recent Injuries, Coaching changes etc.
For example if Louisiana Lafayette QB does not return from injury I really like Tulane to win easily. But I have no solid information on his (Terrance Broadway) progress and they arent confirming any starter obviously.
The game I like most considering this data and situational factors is Buffalo.
I agree that the Pac 12 conference is strong, but Sagarin has Wazzou as the 30th best team in Country. I cannot buy into that. If I play Wazzou it will be for the matchup they have throwing the ball.
As Door54 suggests above, one thing you can say with certainty about the Sagarin data is that it cannot/ does not account or adjust for specific situational off-field factors.
recent Injuries, Coaching changes etc.
For example if Louisiana Lafayette QB does not return from injury I really like Tulane to win easily. But I have no solid information on his (Terrance Broadway) progress and they arent confirming any starter obviously.
The game I like most considering this data and situational factors is Buffalo.
I agree that the Pac 12 conference is strong, but Sagarin has Wazzou as the 30th best team in Country. I cannot buy into that. If I play Wazzou it will be for the matchup they have throwing the ball.
"rankings" averages his two different point based models which he labels "Predictor" and "Dimin Curve". Not sure of the difference in the calculation between these two systems.
I dont follow Sagarin closely enough to know if he favors one system over another. Not obvious from his website.
"rankings" averages his two different point based models which he labels "Predictor" and "Dimin Curve". Not sure of the difference in the calculation between these two systems.
I dont follow Sagarin closely enough to know if he favors one system over another. Not obvious from his website.
I don't use it much anymore, but here's what I've noticed about the Sagarin ratings over the years, as BandosWB referred to:
"Here is how I think about this: If the computers say that Wazzou is 14
points better than CSU, why did the line come out at 3? All of us have
access to the information above, and it is easy to find the
discrepancies. Seems that the linesmakers are not afraid of Wazzou
money, or USC money. And they got it."
My point is, if there is a big discrepancy between Sagarin's rating and the Vegas number, it's for a reason. The bettor best take heed. This is usually a clear indicator where the oddsmakers believe the value is. And this has proven especially true for bowl game matchups when the Sagarin ratings cover the complete season.
Also, the only time that the Sagarin ratings seem accurate is when it approximates the spot. So if the the line is 7 and the Sagarin rating for the season is likewise @ 7, you can safely assume that the Sagarin is accurate. In these instances, the favorite more often than not covers.
Thanks for the info and discussion. I hope you post the remaining games.
I don't use it much anymore, but here's what I've noticed about the Sagarin ratings over the years, as BandosWB referred to:
"Here is how I think about this: If the computers say that Wazzou is 14
points better than CSU, why did the line come out at 3? All of us have
access to the information above, and it is easy to find the
discrepancies. Seems that the linesmakers are not afraid of Wazzou
money, or USC money. And they got it."
My point is, if there is a big discrepancy between Sagarin's rating and the Vegas number, it's for a reason. The bettor best take heed. This is usually a clear indicator where the oddsmakers believe the value is. And this has proven especially true for bowl game matchups when the Sagarin ratings cover the complete season.
Also, the only time that the Sagarin ratings seem accurate is when it approximates the spot. So if the the line is 7 and the Sagarin rating for the season is likewise @ 7, you can safely assume that the Sagarin is accurate. In these instances, the favorite more often than not covers.
Thanks for the info and discussion. I hope you post the remaining games.
OK RebelTell, I believe that the line is different for some reason. Oddsmakers are obviously accounting for something that Sagarin is not, or vice versa. I agree the former is more likely.
for the sake of discussion does anyone care to identify the specific factors (they believe might) account for the line difference in:
1) Wazzou v. CSU
2) Buffalo v. SDSU
3 Navy v. MTSU
or any of the games with a significant difference?
OK RebelTell, I believe that the line is different for some reason. Oddsmakers are obviously accounting for something that Sagarin is not, or vice versa. I agree the former is more likely.
for the sake of discussion does anyone care to identify the specific factors (they believe might) account for the line difference in:
1) Wazzou v. CSU
2) Buffalo v. SDSU
3 Navy v. MTSU
or any of the games with a significant difference?
I agree that Texas A&M might be laying a few too many. Duke with edge on motivational Factor.
Also like Rice who has alot of Seniors and will have a motivational advantage in my opinion.
For what its worth, If you happened to see the post game of the C-USA championship in the Rice locker room they accepted this bowl bid on the spot and the kids were fKing psyched
I agree that Texas A&M might be laying a few too many. Duke with edge on motivational Factor.
Also like Rice who has alot of Seniors and will have a motivational advantage in my opinion.
For what its worth, If you happened to see the post game of the C-USA championship in the Rice locker room they accepted this bowl bid on the spot and the kids were fKing psyched
for the sake of discussion does anyone care to identify the specific factors (they believe might) account for the line difference in:
1) Wazzou v. CSU
2) Buffalo v. SDSU
3 Navy v. MTSU
For SDSU, one thing that accounts for the difference is that SDSU made a huge upgrade at QB after game 2, but the first two games count equally per Sagarin even though they don't really relate to the same team as the current one. Also, SDSU had some bad letdown performances against NMSU and UNLV.
for the sake of discussion does anyone care to identify the specific factors (they believe might) account for the line difference in:
1) Wazzou v. CSU
2) Buffalo v. SDSU
3 Navy v. MTSU
For SDSU, one thing that accounts for the difference is that SDSU made a huge upgrade at QB after game 2, but the first two games count equally per Sagarin even though they don't really relate to the same team as the current one. Also, SDSU had some bad letdown performances against NMSU and UNLV.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.