An all-Canadian semifinal today, it should be a lot of fun, here´s my betting preview:
Pospisil to beat Raonic @3 (Ladbrokes) 5/10
First of all, this pick is by no means an hedge of my Raonic to win Montreal tip advised here two days ago. I really believe odds are wrong, therefore I advise taking Vasek.
It´s true Raonic is the better player but the way both Canadians have been playing this week, Milos comes up very overrated betting-wise. Pospisil has been impressive, serving incredibly well, moving fast and smoothly, while Raonic has been quite error-prone, had an injury scare against Del Potro with that pinched muscle in his neck which led to limited motion in his arm and didn´t play well at all against Gulbis in QF.
My main concerns with Pospisil are:
- He´s new to this stage. This is the most important match he has ever played so nerves could betray him, but so far he has handled them pretty well in two very tight matches against great players like Isner and Berdych, he´s won an awful lot of matches in last month and his confidence is sky high at the moment, so I´m not worried about that.
- Tiredness. Davydenko´s retirement should have helped him a lot to add fuel to his tank. After his Bogotá´s run, Vancouver title and the couple of long matches he´s had this week, Vasek showed signs of being spent in his last match against Tomas Berdych, but this extra day of rest should make him wonders. Therefore I think tiredness shouldn´t play a big role today because rallies won´t be too long either.
So all in all, giving Raonic around 66% chances to win this match is a big mistake in my humble opinion. I wouldn´t give Vasek less than 40% chances here in any case (@2.5 odds in the worst case), so we have a fantastic betting opportunity here.
An all-Canadian semifinal today, it should be a lot of fun, here´s my betting preview:
Pospisil to beat Raonic @3 (Ladbrokes) 5/10
First of all, this pick is by no means an hedge of my Raonic to win Montreal tip advised here two days ago. I really believe odds are wrong, therefore I advise taking Vasek.
It´s true Raonic is the better player but the way both Canadians have been playing this week, Milos comes up very overrated betting-wise. Pospisil has been impressive, serving incredibly well, moving fast and smoothly, while Raonic has been quite error-prone, had an injury scare against Del Potro with that pinched muscle in his neck which led to limited motion in his arm and didn´t play well at all against Gulbis in QF.
My main concerns with Pospisil are:
- He´s new to this stage. This is the most important match he has ever played so nerves could betray him, but so far he has handled them pretty well in two very tight matches against great players like Isner and Berdych, he´s won an awful lot of matches in last month and his confidence is sky high at the moment, so I´m not worried about that.
- Tiredness. Davydenko´s retirement should have helped him a lot to add fuel to his tank. After his Bogotá´s run, Vancouver title and the couple of long matches he´s had this week, Vasek showed signs of being spent in his last match against Tomas Berdych, but this extra day of rest should make him wonders. Therefore I think tiredness shouldn´t play a big role today because rallies won´t be too long either.
So all in all, giving Raonic around 66% chances to win this match is a big mistake in my humble opinion. I wouldn´t give Vasek less than 40% chances here in any case (@2.5 odds in the worst case), so we have a fantastic betting opportunity here.
I´ll also add a tip I fancy a lot in WTA Cincinnati Q:
Gibbs to beat Larsson @2.50 (Bet365) 4/10
Gibbs is a very solid player who will rise in the rankings fast in my opinion. Hardcourts are her favourite surface and she´s the kind of player you have to play well to beat her. I could watch her against Hampton a couple of weeks ago and if she can repeat that kind of performance I think she doesn´t have less chances to win today than Larsson. Johanna doesn´t have the firepower (specially on her bh side), the confidence on her forehand at the moment and she doesn´t feel comfortable enough on hardcourts to be priced so low in my opinion
I´ll also add a tip I fancy a lot in WTA Cincinnati Q:
Gibbs to beat Larsson @2.50 (Bet365) 4/10
Gibbs is a very solid player who will rise in the rankings fast in my opinion. Hardcourts are her favourite surface and she´s the kind of player you have to play well to beat her. I could watch her against Hampton a couple of weeks ago and if she can repeat that kind of performance I think she doesn´t have less chances to win today than Larsson. Johanna doesn´t have the firepower (specially on her bh side), the confidence on her forehand at the moment and she doesn´t feel comfortable enough on hardcourts to be priced so low in my opinion
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