Jacksonville has looked much better over past few weeks and the resurgence of Henne to an anemic offense was great for Jaguars backers as I was one of them. However, Bills have played much tougher schedule ranking in top 15 while Jacksonville is in the lower of the scale. Bills possess a two tier talented backfield in which Jacksonville ranks 29th in rushing yards per game. Bills rank a respectful 7th per game in rushing yards. Bills and Jaguars defense are nothing to brag about, however playing the Patriots and allowing all those points have inflated some of the stats that Buffalo possesses.
The Bills will be able to take pressure off of Fitzpatrick with a running game allowing for play action and some big plays that Jacksonville most likely will not be able to duplicate. The market has seen a buy on Jaguars as they played Houston to a great game on TV. Buffalo isn't a market that gets much publicity and most likely blacked out.
Advanced Stats have Buffalo 19th offensively and 24th defensively while Jacksonville ranks 28th offensively and 29th defensively.
I think laying the 5.5 here at home with both backs healthy and another road game for the Jaguars is the correct play. Market has agreed with me pushing line to 6 and perhaps beyond by closing time.
Jacksonville has looked much better over past few weeks and the resurgence of Henne to an anemic offense was great for Jaguars backers as I was one of them. However, Bills have played much tougher schedule ranking in top 15 while Jacksonville is in the lower of the scale. Bills possess a two tier talented backfield in which Jacksonville ranks 29th in rushing yards per game. Bills rank a respectful 7th per game in rushing yards. Bills and Jaguars defense are nothing to brag about, however playing the Patriots and allowing all those points have inflated some of the stats that Buffalo possesses.
The Bills will be able to take pressure off of Fitzpatrick with a running game allowing for play action and some big plays that Jacksonville most likely will not be able to duplicate. The market has seen a buy on Jaguars as they played Houston to a great game on TV. Buffalo isn't a market that gets much publicity and most likely blacked out.
Advanced Stats have Buffalo 19th offensively and 24th defensively while Jacksonville ranks 28th offensively and 29th defensively.
I think laying the 5.5 here at home with both backs healthy and another road game for the Jaguars is the correct play. Market has agreed with me pushing line to 6 and perhaps beyond by closing time.
I never comment on any posts anymore but I have to tell you out of all the cappers I follow you know your stuff. Just want to say Thanks and I always enjoy your analysis. Hope you have a great day ! Thanks again
I never comment on any posts anymore but I have to tell you out of all the cappers I follow you know your stuff. Just want to say Thanks and I always enjoy your analysis. Hope you have a great day ! Thanks again
Picked off this number right before the parade of bettors and sharps realized what the Giants where able to do to this offensive line on Monday night. I understand this game is in Green Bay and the Vikings are a turf team but they do possess a good pass rush and the Packers are 31st in protecting their quarterback. Rodgers has been sacked way too many times and look for some max protection sets to protect him vs a good pass rushing team. Defensively both teams are similar but a couple of key injuries for Green Bay has showed some major flaws in stopping run and play action. The Viking are based on play action and when this works, they work.
I expect both teams to limit big play potential to rescind turnover potential. Packers still have potential of a better offense but today is about getting back on track. I've invested some money on the under when it first opened up at 47 which was a joke. It may still hit that target but only with Def TD/SpTeams TD which are hard to account for.
If Rodgers is protected, expect 2/3 receivers to face two deep coverage so, management of the clock and FG's could be expected.
Big game for both teams so I'm hoping for the low scoring defensive battle with some 3rd and longs in which both teams aren't willing to throw in coverage but punt the ball away and let the defense play.
With this understanding, I advised taking the underdog with the points.
Picked off this number right before the parade of bettors and sharps realized what the Giants where able to do to this offensive line on Monday night. I understand this game is in Green Bay and the Vikings are a turf team but they do possess a good pass rush and the Packers are 31st in protecting their quarterback. Rodgers has been sacked way too many times and look for some max protection sets to protect him vs a good pass rushing team. Defensively both teams are similar but a couple of key injuries for Green Bay has showed some major flaws in stopping run and play action. The Viking are based on play action and when this works, they work.
I expect both teams to limit big play potential to rescind turnover potential. Packers still have potential of a better offense but today is about getting back on track. I've invested some money on the under when it first opened up at 47 which was a joke. It may still hit that target but only with Def TD/SpTeams TD which are hard to account for.
If Rodgers is protected, expect 2/3 receivers to face two deep coverage so, management of the clock and FG's could be expected.
Big game for both teams so I'm hoping for the low scoring defensive battle with some 3rd and longs in which both teams aren't willing to throw in coverage but punt the ball away and let the defense play.
With this understanding, I advised taking the underdog with the points.
I never comment on any posts anymore but I have to tell you out of all the cappers I follow you know your stuff. Just want to say Thanks and I always enjoy your analysis. Hope you have a great day ! Thanks again
Thanks Bail,
You won't see my threads with catchy POY, LOCKS, or Huge play titles as information is the only key that I look for when wagering on the Sports market. If I can make a profit and help out a couple of bettors/investors like others have done for me, hey, it's good business. Karma is a good thing when used wisely and hopefully we can continue a positive outcome for this NFL card.
I never comment on any posts anymore but I have to tell you out of all the cappers I follow you know your stuff. Just want to say Thanks and I always enjoy your analysis. Hope you have a great day ! Thanks again
Thanks Bail,
You won't see my threads with catchy POY, LOCKS, or Huge play titles as information is the only key that I look for when wagering on the Sports market. If I can make a profit and help out a couple of bettors/investors like others have done for me, hey, it's good business. Karma is a good thing when used wisely and hopefully we can continue a positive outcome for this NFL card.
Weather could factor into this game with some heavier winds factoring in here at game time, but we've seen turnovers allowing short field options and easier scoring opportunities. Houston is a silent squad that is 2nd in the league in scoring average facing the 28th ranked defense. They are not like the New England Patriots that gets all the coverage, sort of like a step brother who's awesome offensively but no headlines. Tennessee offensively is mid to below average on the offensive side of the ball. However, last three games have averaged over 27 pts per game. Granted some of these points are classified as garbage time, but the potential output is there.
Houston shouldn't have any trouble running the ball and setting up play action, the key here for this total going over the key number 47 is those recoveries in the red zone, breakthrough plays, and making mistakes. We've seen what Tennessee can do on both sides of the ball, they looked horrendous vs Chicago who forced fumbles and turnovers and we've seen the Titans blow out a decent Miami Dolphin defense on the road.
The Texans are consistent and have big play potential. The points I see that help the over is that Houston is 9th in RZone in scoring TD's while Tennessee is 16th in RZ in scoring TD's. Houston gets there the 4th most in the league. Tennesse has done a much better job the past few weeks of getting there as well. Houston's defense is good and ranks in top 5 in allowing teams in RZ and giving up TD's, however the Titans rank in last 5 in the opposite direction.
I'm seeing a 34-20 type of game here in favor of Houston. Houston would be a play today, but they face New England next week and not sure what the focus may be during there camp. It's always on a players mind.
Weather could factor into this game with some heavier winds factoring in here at game time, but we've seen turnovers allowing short field options and easier scoring opportunities. Houston is a silent squad that is 2nd in the league in scoring average facing the 28th ranked defense. They are not like the New England Patriots that gets all the coverage, sort of like a step brother who's awesome offensively but no headlines. Tennessee offensively is mid to below average on the offensive side of the ball. However, last three games have averaged over 27 pts per game. Granted some of these points are classified as garbage time, but the potential output is there.
Houston shouldn't have any trouble running the ball and setting up play action, the key here for this total going over the key number 47 is those recoveries in the red zone, breakthrough plays, and making mistakes. We've seen what Tennessee can do on both sides of the ball, they looked horrendous vs Chicago who forced fumbles and turnovers and we've seen the Titans blow out a decent Miami Dolphin defense on the road.
The Texans are consistent and have big play potential. The points I see that help the over is that Houston is 9th in RZone in scoring TD's while Tennessee is 16th in RZ in scoring TD's. Houston gets there the 4th most in the league. Tennesse has done a much better job the past few weeks of getting there as well. Houston's defense is good and ranks in top 5 in allowing teams in RZ and giving up TD's, however the Titans rank in last 5 in the opposite direction.
I'm seeing a 34-20 type of game here in favor of Houston. Houston would be a play today, but they face New England next week and not sure what the focus may be during there camp. It's always on a players mind.
You won't see my threads with catchy POY, LOCKS, or Huge play titles as information is the only key that I look for when wagering on the Sports market. If I can make a profit and help out a couple of bettors/investors like others have done for me, hey, it's good business. Karma is a good thing when used wisely and hopefully we can continue a positive outcome for this NFL card.
Good luck to you sir.
Respect.
I agree with the sentiments of the above poster. I always liked your threads and picks based on your read of the market.
Speaking of which, It's strange that there are a number of favs on the board today that I'm liking just based on the market... there is some wacky stuff going on this week.
You won't see my threads with catchy POY, LOCKS, or Huge play titles as information is the only key that I look for when wagering on the Sports market. If I can make a profit and help out a couple of bettors/investors like others have done for me, hey, it's good business. Karma is a good thing when used wisely and hopefully we can continue a positive outcome for this NFL card.
Good luck to you sir.
Respect.
I agree with the sentiments of the above poster. I always liked your threads and picks based on your read of the market.
Speaking of which, It's strange that there are a number of favs on the board today that I'm liking just based on the market... there is some wacky stuff going on this week.
Detroit is in a number of my teaser legs at a positive number when line first came out at 3.5 and confirmation is showing line up to 7 across the board. Luck has had a great year but on the road vs good defenses and good teams he's been a Jekyl/Hide type of player. Like the Detroit teasers and positive confirmation on line.
Bills haven't moved in the direction that I though it would hit the key number 7, but a win is all I need to push this number.
Denver is at home with a highly rated defense and a good offense. The Bucs playing in the cold coming off another heart breaking loss may be in for a tough game. Need Broncos to cover and market has also aligned nicely with this one.
Played Vikings and Seahawks in a number of teasers as Vikings catching anywhere from 13.5 to 18 while Seahawks crossed the key number of 10 in a couple and settled in at 9.5 for some as well.
Pats teased down to win in most of teasers at 6.5 or more. Brady 0-3 in December in Miami which has some concern especially for a young defense in Miami. Pats succeptible to run at times and good quarterbacks. Expect some blitz packages to confuse rookie QB here.
Cincinatti was teased across 5 and 8 numbers against Chargers at home. Pass rush vs Rivers will determine if they can win outright in SDiego and will the Chargers go in hole since season is all but lost.
Cleveland was teased in 10 pt teasers in 2 teasers of mine to +9 on the road and they continue to cover most of the time this season receiving these amount of points.
San Fran was teased down to win on the road here today even though St. Louis is catching a key 7.5 number as home dog. May offset some of this in 2nd half play if it's close. We will see how the 1:00 games are going.
Detroit is in a number of my teaser legs at a positive number when line first came out at 3.5 and confirmation is showing line up to 7 across the board. Luck has had a great year but on the road vs good defenses and good teams he's been a Jekyl/Hide type of player. Like the Detroit teasers and positive confirmation on line.
Bills haven't moved in the direction that I though it would hit the key number 7, but a win is all I need to push this number.
Denver is at home with a highly rated defense and a good offense. The Bucs playing in the cold coming off another heart breaking loss may be in for a tough game. Need Broncos to cover and market has also aligned nicely with this one.
Played Vikings and Seahawks in a number of teasers as Vikings catching anywhere from 13.5 to 18 while Seahawks crossed the key number of 10 in a couple and settled in at 9.5 for some as well.
Pats teased down to win in most of teasers at 6.5 or more. Brady 0-3 in December in Miami which has some concern especially for a young defense in Miami. Pats succeptible to run at times and good quarterbacks. Expect some blitz packages to confuse rookie QB here.
Cincinatti was teased across 5 and 8 numbers against Chargers at home. Pass rush vs Rivers will determine if they can win outright in SDiego and will the Chargers go in hole since season is all but lost.
Cleveland was teased in 10 pt teasers in 2 teasers of mine to +9 on the road and they continue to cover most of the time this season receiving these amount of points.
San Fran was teased down to win on the road here today even though St. Louis is catching a key 7.5 number as home dog. May offset some of this in 2nd half play if it's close. We will see how the 1:00 games are going.
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