@ billyweather thank you BOL 2 U 2
@ choiOi -
I want to comment now on my 6 team parlay. Obviously, I like it or I wouldn't have made it. I am not delusional, I know the payout is because the odds against me are approx 50-1. All it would take would be a Carson Palmer pic 6, or another underestimation of Atl, or an incorrect belief that the Jets might just put together a solid effort @ Sea (one of the NFL's toughest venues for opposing teams), or being dead wrong that Dal is a less crappy team than Philly. Anyway, I'm apparently in a gambling mood with that pick.
That said, here are my thoughts regarding teams which suddenly showed up in that parlay without prior comment.
NYG - already talked about
Oak +7.5 I've had Oak correctly pegged the last 4 games just by going with my opinion that they are a great dog and a crappy fav. When you count them down and out, they surprise. Just when you think they are better than you gave them credit for, they stink it up.
Who thought they would beat Pit and give Atl a tough game? Be honest.... LOL
The flip side is that I see Balt as one of those teams that seems to only do what they have to to win. When they're ahead, they seem to lack the killer instinct and they play conservatively. When they're down, they turn Flacco loose and then he can move that team with ease, or so it seems. I absolutely hate betting on these guys, making me turn and squirm in anger as I watch them favored "big" and sitting on a small lead calling prehistoric dinosaur football with run, run, pass, punt. Last week was an exception, I backed them because of my opinion that they are, all in all, a "good team" and they were coming off the bye after a humiliating defeat @ Hou. That said, they STILL made me squirm wondering if they were going to cover! That's my "psychological profile" of these two teams, and hence my pick.
N.O. +2.5 I counted N.O. down and out, and even though I know they play super football @ home in Prime Time, I inexplicably went against them MN with 2 late bets. I was also trying to catch a middle, so I'll cut myself a tiny bit of slack for not just letting my prior bets ride as I should have. I did watch the game, and I was impressed. I can now give N.O. a pass for the earlier part of their season, when they were still reeling from the backlash of "pay for pain" and it's consequences. However, my impression now is these guys have settled in are are back on track playing greatly inspired ball @ HOME. This Atl matchup is as big as they come, and I have no doubt they will be looking to hand a loss to the undefeated Falcons, who are a good team, but perhaps not as good as their record indicates. I'll take Drew Brees and company to take down the Falcons in N.O.'s most important contest in this season to date.
NYJ +6 Yeah, I know...this looks like a real head-scratcher.
Here's what I know. I like to go against these guys (Jets) when they are fat-headed and providing their opponents locker room material with their easily predictable over-confident trash talk during the week before the game. I also like Mia as a dog and so that contest 2 weeks ago was an easy pick for me. Now they've had a week off to stew over that home embarrassment, and what I love is I have not heard one peep (rightly so) from them about how "great they are and how they are going to crush the Seahags". On the contrary, they are openly paying their respects to Sea and how well they perform at home. IMO, this spells "focus". Combine this with the media's announcements that Rex Ryan is the most over-rated coach in the NFL....I see a nice, quietly motivated team ready to put together a good game. I do like Sea as a team, and I could see how they were and should have been, and did cover a big spread (over 3 pts) against a floundering Vikes team. Here they are again, laying another big number and I see value in taking the points in this spot.
Dal -2 Contest of two over-rated, under-performing teams. This one comes down to my opinion that Dal is less shitty than Phil. The tie-breaker is Phil's OL woes. This is such a big thing in the NFL. No protection = QB abuse ----> losing. I'm sure as well that Dal will find ways to make this a tougher contest than it should be, but it's been a while since Romo has had a great effort resulting in a win so I'm thinking he's way overdue. On paper, this looks like a blow-out Dal win, but realistically, all considered, probably a tough 3 pt win. I seriously believe that Phil has a black cloud over them. Whatever can go wrong, does...in spades. Maybe it's bad Vick Karma, or Dogma... lol
SF -11 Already discussed but in very little detail. I'll add a bit now.
I view SF as a power-house team, very balanced and good on both sides of the ball, playing @ home and most importantly, coming off their bye. Maybe the larger consideration to me is the other guys, those pathetic Lambs. These guys stink it up on the road against good teams.
@ Det (a so-so team) L 23-27
@ Chi (
good team)
L 23-6 @ Mia (avg team) L 17-14
on the road vs NE (
good team) in London
L 45-7I will be surprised if SL can keep the score within 2 TDs.
I welcome any opinions, trends you want to throw out there at me, stats, whatever. I've been messing around with parlays and a teaser (love that one) as already posted with only one "serious" straight play - NYG. I'm thinking about adding a couple of other straight bets before game time Sunday - looking seriously @ Dal, NO, Chi.
Oh, Chicago hosting Hou......2 tough teams, I'll take the SN home boys laying less than a FG. DEFENSE BABY!
BOL to all!