CLV Profit (Actual Units Won/Saved by Beating Closing Line): +23.92
As always, I am capping the line, not the matchup. My only goal is to beat the closing number by betting early before the market sets itself. If I do that consistently, I believe I will be profitable. Along with my units I will be tracking CLV (total units I have beaten closing line) and CLV Profit (actual units won or saved by betting early instead of waiting for the closing line).
1-0 yesterday, cashing on a juicy Angels G1 +125 wager that ended up closing -102.
Three plays for today. One was bet yesterday off BetCris openers, the other two were bet this morning once BetCris opened some previously off the board games due to playoff implications.
Monday 10/1
953 Philadelphia Phillies +130
959 San Diego Padres +140
977 Texas Rangers +128
Phillies bet is pretty simple... Lannan vs. Kendrick happened last week and I hit the Nationals at +125 and the line closed -120/+110 Philly. That signifies equal power-ratings for both guys, so now that this game is in Washington the line should be -120/+110 Nats. Happy to be able to get +130 here on Philly.
I had SDG/MIL projected at -135/+125, with the reasoning being that Clayton Richard closed -110 and +125 on the road against Aaron Harang in the past month, and the power ratings for Harang and Marcum seem to be very similar. As such, taking a shot on the Padres at what I feel is a good number.
Same reasoning for a bet on TEX tonight as my Philly bet... Parker vs. Perez happened last week and Perez closed -130 at home. As such, he should be something like +100 or +105 tonight, instead I'm getting +128 which to me is a great number for a Rangers team that still needs a win over the A's to close out the division title.
CLV Profit (Actual Units Won/Saved by Beating Closing Line): +23.92
As always, I am capping the line, not the matchup. My only goal is to beat the closing number by betting early before the market sets itself. If I do that consistently, I believe I will be profitable. Along with my units I will be tracking CLV (total units I have beaten closing line) and CLV Profit (actual units won or saved by betting early instead of waiting for the closing line).
1-0 yesterday, cashing on a juicy Angels G1 +125 wager that ended up closing -102.
Three plays for today. One was bet yesterday off BetCris openers, the other two were bet this morning once BetCris opened some previously off the board games due to playoff implications.
Monday 10/1
953 Philadelphia Phillies +130
959 San Diego Padres +140
977 Texas Rangers +128
Phillies bet is pretty simple... Lannan vs. Kendrick happened last week and I hit the Nationals at +125 and the line closed -120/+110 Philly. That signifies equal power-ratings for both guys, so now that this game is in Washington the line should be -120/+110 Nats. Happy to be able to get +130 here on Philly.
I had SDG/MIL projected at -135/+125, with the reasoning being that Clayton Richard closed -110 and +125 on the road against Aaron Harang in the past month, and the power ratings for Harang and Marcum seem to be very similar. As such, taking a shot on the Padres at what I feel is a good number.
Same reasoning for a bet on TEX tonight as my Philly bet... Parker vs. Perez happened last week and Perez closed -130 at home. As such, he should be something like +100 or +105 tonight, instead I'm getting +128 which to me is a great number for a Rangers team that still needs a win over the A's to close out the division title.
BetOnline only released a limited amount of openers, again due to playoff implications/situations. Did end up playing the Pads again tomorrow, so here's my card so far for Tuesday.
BetOnline only released a limited amount of openers, again due to playoff implications/situations. Did end up playing the Pads again tomorrow, so here's my card so far for Tuesday.
These last few weeks there has been no rhyme or reason to some of these line movements. There is no data to backup Lannan being a -150 fave over Kendrick, Marcum to be a -165 fave over Richard, or Parker to be a -140 fave over Perez. Aside from the Brewers, if the Nats and A's are that big of favorite because of the situations they are in, then I strongly, strongly disagree with that. From a value standpoint, I am still happy with the numbers I got, even though those lines have moved against me.
These last few weeks there has been no rhyme or reason to some of these line movements. There is no data to backup Lannan being a -150 fave over Kendrick, Marcum to be a -165 fave over Richard, or Parker to be a -140 fave over Perez. Aside from the Brewers, if the Nats and A's are that big of favorite because of the situations they are in, then I strongly, strongly disagree with that. From a value standpoint, I am still happy with the numbers I got, even though those lines have moved against me.
It's clear from some of the lines thrown out today (Guthrie -115 over Fister, Masterson -120 over Peavy, Hanson only -105 vs. Correia, Haren only -115 vs. Iwakuma) that these lines are a reflection of teams with nothing left to play for. As such, I am going to avoid games like that, but I did end up playing one more game that I feel has value. Final card for Tuesday is below.
It's clear from some of the lines thrown out today (Guthrie -115 over Fister, Masterson -120 over Peavy, Hanson only -105 vs. Correia, Haren only -115 vs. Iwakuma) that these lines are a reflection of teams with nothing left to play for. As such, I am going to avoid games like that, but I did end up playing one more game that I feel has value. Final card for Tuesday is below.
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