Albeit for me to question the logic of a guy who's been here 3 years longer than I, which more than likely means gambling longer than I, but how do you figure there's no such thing as a trap? Last weekend, 5 different games with 70/30 splits or more (depending on which site you prefer to check) all lost, most of which outright. Vegas knows more than all of us, but knows a boatload more than most of us. When they release a number like Dallas -3 last week against seattle, or drag-ass oakland against Pitt -4, they know good and damn well they're not going to get the 50/50 split like so many like to claim is the goal.
Let me be clear, I do NOT believe in fixes. But I do believe those who are paid to make this business run are well informed. So the original counter point is correct, the general betting public's perception (and possibly the OP) is skewed. But when the masses view a line in one way as off, when its actually dead on correct, does that not define a 'trap' for the betting public? I've seen it, I've heard it from the mouthes of industry workers on all types of media, and i've read it. Vegas does draw lines in the sand, and they aren't afraid to take a side against public perception if said perception is wrong. The last 2 weeks have been riddled with examples.
Albeit for me to question the logic of a guy who's been here 3 years longer than I, which more than likely means gambling longer than I, but how do you figure there's no such thing as a trap? Last weekend, 5 different games with 70/30 splits or more (depending on which site you prefer to check) all lost, most of which outright. Vegas knows more than all of us, but knows a boatload more than most of us. When they release a number like Dallas -3 last week against seattle, or drag-ass oakland against Pitt -4, they know good and damn well they're not going to get the 50/50 split like so many like to claim is the goal.
Let me be clear, I do NOT believe in fixes. But I do believe those who are paid to make this business run are well informed. So the original counter point is correct, the general betting public's perception (and possibly the OP) is skewed. But when the masses view a line in one way as off, when its actually dead on correct, does that not define a 'trap' for the betting public? I've seen it, I've heard it from the mouthes of industry workers on all types of media, and i've read it. Vegas does draw lines in the sand, and they aren't afraid to take a side against public perception if said perception is wrong. The last 2 weeks have been riddled with examples.
Albeit for me to question the logic of a guy who's been here 3 years longer than I, which more than likely means gambling longer than I, but how do you figure there's no such thing as a trap? Last weekend, 5 different games with 70/30 splits or more (depending on which site you prefer to check) all lost, most of which outright. Vegas knows more than all of us, but knows a boatload more than most of us. When they release a number like Dallas -3 last week against seattle, or drag-ass oakland against Pitt -4, they know good and damn well they're not going to get the 50/50 split like so many like to claim is the goal.
Let me be clear, I do NOT believe in fixes. But I do believe those who are paid to make this business run are well informed. So the original counter point is correct, the general betting public's perception (and possibly the OP) is skewed. But when the masses view a line in one way as off, when its actually dead on correct, does that not define a 'trap' for the betting public? I've seen it, I've heard it from the mouthes of industry workers on all types of media, and i've read it. Vegas does draw lines in the sand, and they aren't afraid to take a side against public perception if said perception is wrong. The last 2 weeks have been riddled with examples.
Albeit for me to question the logic of a guy who's been here 3 years longer than I, which more than likely means gambling longer than I, but how do you figure there's no such thing as a trap? Last weekend, 5 different games with 70/30 splits or more (depending on which site you prefer to check) all lost, most of which outright. Vegas knows more than all of us, but knows a boatload more than most of us. When they release a number like Dallas -3 last week against seattle, or drag-ass oakland against Pitt -4, they know good and damn well they're not going to get the 50/50 split like so many like to claim is the goal.
Let me be clear, I do NOT believe in fixes. But I do believe those who are paid to make this business run are well informed. So the original counter point is correct, the general betting public's perception (and possibly the OP) is skewed. But when the masses view a line in one way as off, when its actually dead on correct, does that not define a 'trap' for the betting public? I've seen it, I've heard it from the mouthes of industry workers on all types of media, and i've read it. Vegas does draw lines in the sand, and they aren't afraid to take a side against public perception if said perception is wrong. The last 2 weeks have been riddled with examples.
However, everyone has a different view. I'm sure if you are specific as to which games you think look off, a different viewpoint can be discussed to at least show why certain games are where they are.
To me the games that stand out most are NE -4 and SEA -1. However both road teams, so NE at home would (assumption) be about -10 or 11 and SEA -8, both lines I see as fair. People tend to under-estimate home field and how that can affect play. Buffalo always plays NE tough, divisional game, and NE's defense seems to be reverting a bit back to last year. SEA (IMO) away from home is a large bit of smoke and mirrors. They're the 32nd best passing offense in the NFL, playing a team with a solid front 7 so they're not going to be able to run at will. Smaller quicker WR's for the Rams don't bode as well for the taller corners of Seattle. Russell Wilson's a rookie and hasn't done anything for us to hate him about, but the bottom line is he hasn't played nearly well enough to win any games on his own. Idk if i'm on either line, but just two examples of how it can easily happen.
However, everyone has a different view. I'm sure if you are specific as to which games you think look off, a different viewpoint can be discussed to at least show why certain games are where they are.
To me the games that stand out most are NE -4 and SEA -1. However both road teams, so NE at home would (assumption) be about -10 or 11 and SEA -8, both lines I see as fair. People tend to under-estimate home field and how that can affect play. Buffalo always plays NE tough, divisional game, and NE's defense seems to be reverting a bit back to last year. SEA (IMO) away from home is a large bit of smoke and mirrors. They're the 32nd best passing offense in the NFL, playing a team with a solid front 7 so they're not going to be able to run at will. Smaller quicker WR's for the Rams don't bode as well for the taller corners of Seattle. Russell Wilson's a rookie and hasn't done anything for us to hate him about, but the bottom line is he hasn't played nearly well enough to win any games on his own. Idk if i'm on either line, but just two examples of how it can easily happen.
Exactly Modogg,
Again, I have to be clear, DON"T BELIEVE IN FIXES. But you can't tell me if they want 50/50 action that these are some of the numbers being released. Books would be the greatest morons on the face of the earth. Why release Philly -1 and get 70/30 money on NY when you could release NY -3/4 and possibly actually get your 50/50 split? Why? B/c if this game is a 50/50 possibility for the Eagles to cover, then the long term risk of games like this is worth it to not get an even split. 10 coinflip spreads like this over the course of 2 weeks with 70/30 betting splits is gonna give the books a lot more of a profit margin than 10 50/50 games where they're only raking the vig. An obviously over-simplified example of a complicated industry, but just making a point.
Exactly Modogg,
Again, I have to be clear, DON"T BELIEVE IN FIXES. But you can't tell me if they want 50/50 action that these are some of the numbers being released. Books would be the greatest morons on the face of the earth. Why release Philly -1 and get 70/30 money on NY when you could release NY -3/4 and possibly actually get your 50/50 split? Why? B/c if this game is a 50/50 possibility for the Eagles to cover, then the long term risk of games like this is worth it to not get an even split. 10 coinflip spreads like this over the course of 2 weeks with 70/30 betting splits is gonna give the books a lot more of a profit margin than 10 50/50 games where they're only raking the vig. An obviously over-simplified example of a complicated industry, but just making a point.
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