YTD 182-175 +38.94
CLV (Closing Line Value): +44.68
CLV Profit (Actual Units Won/Saved by Beating Closing Line): +18.07
As always, I am capping the line, not the matchup. My only goal is to beat the closing number by betting early before the market sets itself. If I do that consistently, I believe I will be profitable. Along with my units I will be tracking CLV (total units I have beaten closing line) and CLV Profit (actual units won or saved by betting early instead of waiting for the closing line).
Woke up to a losing Rays bet, meaning 1-2 yesterday. Also lost with the Marlins but cashed with the Cubs.
Today's plays below, bet at opening BetOnline and BetCris numbers and posted in my Monday thread.
Tuesday 7/31
951 Philadelphia Phillies +135
972 Texas Rangers +110
974 Kansas City Royals -105
976 Minnesota Twins +135
I think I’d always be willing to place a bet with Cliff Lee at +135. To get that good of a pitcher at that type of number is almost an auto-bet. As good as Strasburg is, he closed +135 at home against Tommy Hanson in his last start. So I don’t see why I should be able to get the same number with Cliff Lee. Furthermore, how does Lee go from +105 in his last road start against Kershaw to +135 against Strasburg? I don’t really care if this one loses, it’s a great value play.
Similarly, the Rangers as a +110 home dog is almost an auto-bet as well. People like to overreact to what’s happening lately, and lately the Rangers have been scuffling at home. But this is still an absurdly good home team, and to get them at plus money at home is a bet I have to make. Especially when you consider this same Weaver-Holland matchup occurred just over a week ago with Weaver closed around -140 in LA. Now that this game is in Texas, and with how much better Texas plays at home, the most I could see this being is Angels -110/+100. In reality I had this as a -105/-105 coin flip game. That’s where it’s at right now at most books.
Backing my most profitable pitcher again this season in Luke Hochevar. Derek Lowe should not be laying any juice whatsoever in this situation. These two offenses are pretty equal, slight edge in starting pitching to the Royals in my opinion, so I lined it -125/+115 Kansas City. In my opinion -105 for the home team here is a steal. Pinnacle is currently throwing up a much more appropriate -120 for KC right now.
I may be a fool for backing Nick Blackburn… but as a +135 home dog I think the price is right. Consider that Blackburn’s last start was on the road against Jake Peavy and the line closed -180/+170. Transfer that line to Minnesota and you are probably looking at -140/+130. But again, that line would be with Peavy starting for the White Sox. With Liriano starting, and the line opening -145/+135, I think the value is there. Certainly the Twins hitters should be very familiar with Liriano’s repertoire.
Good luck today everybody.