7:05 EST - Atlanta Hawks @ New Orleans Hornets Under 176.5 (-110)
This one is pretty simple. New Orleans is the slowest team in the league averaging only 90.6 possessions per game. Atlanta plays a little quicker, but they're still the 10th slowest at 92.9 possessions. Both teams are solid on the defensive end as well. The Hornets have the second highest defensive rebound rate at 77.27%. Atlanta isn't far behind at ten best pulling down just under 75%. Atlanta also holds opponents to an eFG% of only 46.73% which is good for 9th best in the NBA. Even though the Hornets are a different team this year, the Hawks still might have revenge on their mind as they were held to only 59 points the last time they faced New Orleans (in Atlanta!) I think they bring the defensive intensity today in New Orleans as they attempt to embarrass the Hornets on their home court in the same way they were embarrassed last season. Both teams are below the league average in offensive and defensive turnover rate well as free throw rate. Generally speaking, the fewer free throws and turnovers, the fewer points. All this being said, there won't be many second chance points, fast break points or free throws to send the game over. Also, given the pace that both teams run at I can't see either team getting into the 90's. There's a reason why this total is set in the mid 170's. This game should be an ugly one to watch. Atlanta 88 - New Orleans 81
7:05 EST - Atlanta Hawks @ New Orleans Hornets Under 176.5 (-110)
This one is pretty simple. New Orleans is the slowest team in the league averaging only 90.6 possessions per game. Atlanta plays a little quicker, but they're still the 10th slowest at 92.9 possessions. Both teams are solid on the defensive end as well. The Hornets have the second highest defensive rebound rate at 77.27%. Atlanta isn't far behind at ten best pulling down just under 75%. Atlanta also holds opponents to an eFG% of only 46.73% which is good for 9th best in the NBA. Even though the Hornets are a different team this year, the Hawks still might have revenge on their mind as they were held to only 59 points the last time they faced New Orleans (in Atlanta!) I think they bring the defensive intensity today in New Orleans as they attempt to embarrass the Hornets on their home court in the same way they were embarrassed last season. Both teams are below the league average in offensive and defensive turnover rate well as free throw rate. Generally speaking, the fewer free throws and turnovers, the fewer points. All this being said, there won't be many second chance points, fast break points or free throws to send the game over. Also, given the pace that both teams run at I can't see either team getting into the 90's. There's a reason why this total is set in the mid 170's. This game should be an ugly one to watch. Atlanta 88 - New Orleans 81
this line is super fishy even with ATL's injuries. But im still taking ATL
According to my point spread rankings (Atlanta +3.7 & New Orleans -1.0) Atlanta is 4.7 points better on a neutral site. Using standard adjustment of 3.5 points you find Atlanta should be -1.0. However, the Hawks are a much more public team than the Hornets so usually you can expect at least a couple extra points in their direction. If I were setting the odds in Vegas I would have put this game at Atlanta -3.5 to attract a 50-50 split. The fact that they set it closer to the true statistical difference between these teams is a big red flag. I don't know what to make of this game - Atlanta is right to be road favorites, but the oddsmakers made it a little too easy to back them today.
this line is super fishy even with ATL's injuries. But im still taking ATL
According to my point spread rankings (Atlanta +3.7 & New Orleans -1.0) Atlanta is 4.7 points better on a neutral site. Using standard adjustment of 3.5 points you find Atlanta should be -1.0. However, the Hawks are a much more public team than the Hornets so usually you can expect at least a couple extra points in their direction. If I were setting the odds in Vegas I would have put this game at Atlanta -3.5 to attract a 50-50 split. The fact that they set it closer to the true statistical difference between these teams is a big red flag. I don't know what to make of this game - Atlanta is right to be road favorites, but the oddsmakers made it a little too easy to back them today.
7:05 EST -Atlanta Hawks @ New Orleans Hornets Under 176.5 (-110)
Atlanta scored a few more than I expected. Maybe that had something to do with them going 12/23 from beyond the arc. They definitely embarrassed New Orleans on their home court like I thought they would try and do. Only 70 total points for the Hornets!
7:05 EST -Atlanta Hawks @ New Orleans Hornets Under 176.5 (-110)
Atlanta scored a few more than I expected. Maybe that had something to do with them going 12/23 from beyond the arc. They definitely embarrassed New Orleans on their home court like I thought they would try and do. Only 70 total points for the Hornets!
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