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My new Bowl betting cheat sheet

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Captain
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Posted: #51

I think time is something that can absolutely kill you as a capper with these bowl games - because it ultimately gives you a chance to reconsider every side you're interested in and leads you to question your judgment about a lot of things.
 
For example, I was an extremely big fan of Kentucky and Iowa going into bowl season.  I just absolutely loved the motivation angles for each school, and thought both were capable of winning the coaching matchup and outplaying an opponent that didn't want to be there.
 
Then I saw the Texas A&M/California game.  I watched a TAMU team that was playing great coming in get absolutely dominated by the Bears, losing by 5 touchdowns.  California didn't have a whole lot to play for, and wasn't exactly lighting teams up coming in.  Yet they found a way to get it together and whip that team.
 
That night, I decided I liked Clemson.  It reminded me exactly of that game; a more talented, more bowl-experienced, more physical team against one who really hasn't been there before.  I made a play on Clemson (I go to UK, and was at the bowl game), then watched my Cats absolutely whip them.  It was so devastating that I let one bowl game affect my judgment of another.  I was proud of them, but was embarrassed that I faded them in what was the school's biggest football game in years.
 
Then I decided to lay off Iowa as well.  I was so scared of Texas playing in San Antonio, and getting fired up to play in this bowl game that, although is below their expectations, is pretty fun to be in.  I began doubting Iowa's defense as well.  Then, as I watched the Hawkeyes build up a 14-3 lead, I got extremely angry for not trusting my instincts again; and subsequently laid a ridiculous -170 on the Iowa in-game ML.  I of course lost that, and found myself down 4 units from those 2 plays which I just out-thought myself with.
 
From what I counted, there's an approximate 45 games on a normal week of college football.  Back in September I was playing somewhere around 6-7 games a week; and got well under .500.  Near the end of the season, I found myself playing no more than 3 games a week; and I went on a run of 4 or 5 straight winning Saturdays.  Now in bowl season, I've found myself with a 10-12 record through 28 games.  It's a disgrace, and I'm extremely unhappy in how I handled things.  It's really sad that I even needed action, because I'm also big on both NHL and CBB; and December offers great value in CBB because the books haven't quite figured everyone out yet.  There has always been something else there for me to play if I needed action, because there were three sports to choose from.  And, on top of that, there are numerous bowl pools I could enter to pick my winners (and give myself a good reason to care about the games), without having money on individual contests.  Yet I have managed to make 22 bowl plays so far.
 
These are things I must change for next year.  If not, I'm going to do awful once again.
 
Rookie
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Posted: #52

lindetrain, i agree
i picked louisville yesterday, and some schmoe said, you must not have seen the boise game.
i was like what the hell does that have to do with anything. definetely treat each game seperate.
i didnt know anyone would take one fav because some other team covered before about a week
ago, but ive seen a lot of it around here.
 
nd/lsu has nothing to do with fla/osu
 
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Posted: #53

you should add who has the better qb also
 
Captain
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Posted: #54

Bump for everyone...
 
Veteran
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Posted: #55

good write up
 
Veteran
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Posted: #56

I believe a solid trend over the years has been that the games early in the Bowl Season have the Favs, and later games favor the Dogs.
 
Captain
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Posted: #57

The team who covered last year, in order:
 
FAVE
FAVE
DOG
FAVE
DOG
FAVE
FAVE
FAVE
DOG
DOG
FAVE
FAVE
DOG
DOG
FAVE
DOG
FAVE
DOG
DOG
DOG
DOG
DOG
PUSH
DOG
DOG
DOG
DOG
FAVE
FAVE
FAVE
FAVE
DOG
 
From 12/29-1/1, dogs went 12-2-1!  (12-3 if you count Nebraska as a loss)
 
 
Captain
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Posted: #58

From 2005 (these may not all be right, but from what I recall):
 
FAVE
FAVE
PUSH
FAVE
FAVE
DOG
FAVE
DOG
DOG
FAVE
DOG
DOG
DOG
DOG
FAVE
DOG
DOG
FAVE
DOG
PUSH
FAVE
FAVE
FAVE
DOG
FAVE
DOG
DOG
DOG
 
Yet again, dogs go 9-3-1 from 12/27-12/31...
 
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Posted: #59

"Faves before Christmas, Dogs after Christmas"
 
Veteran
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Posted: #60

Great thread. One of the best I've ever seen on covers.  I picked up on the motivation factor a couple of years ago after losing once to often on "the better team".  I believe motivation is the most important factor in capping these games.  There are usually 3-5 teams that really have no desire being at the game.  The key is to identify and fade.

There is two other key points to look at. 

a)Several teams will use the extra 3 weeks of practice to prepare for next year.  The younger guys will see much more time in practice.  The regulars may not even participate in some practices.  You want to bet against these teams.

b)Changes to the coaching staff.  Several teams will have their staffs poached before bowl season.  Some teams will lose coordinators.  It is very difficult to win when your coaching staff is leaving for another program.  Even if the coaches stay through the bowl game, their preparation won't be the same.  It's very difficult to do two jobs at once.
 
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Posted: #61

Great bump lindetrain....would love to see more posts just like this.  Good luck to all in closing out this NCAA Football season.
 
Hall of Fame
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Posted: #62

Good bump Linde. . .  forgot about this one.
 
 
Captain
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Posted: #63

Bump again...
 
All-Star
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Posted: #64

Archives worthy 

Rizz

 
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Posted: #65

Great thread.  I have run my own bowl pool for 11 years and can see into the psyche of Joe Public and how they bet these games.  Last year I had 475 people in and 1st place got $820 and payed down 30 slots.  Points based system 1-34.  The overall win was 45% (7,267-8,883) and the overall points were 43.8% (123,884 points won and 158,741 lost.  And mind you, my lines don't move.  I set them when they come out and they can move pretty drastically at the books before people have to turn their sheet in.  I compile all the stats for teams picked and points.  A few things I can add:

The point about who wants to be there and which team does not is a big factor.  I have followed it for several years.  It is not foolproof and not every game fits the pattern, but do look at it.  The favorite is not only not happy being in a lesser bowl than they thought they should be in, they also feel the game will be easy due to the opponent and don't play up to their potential.  And that opponent wants to make a name for themselves against a better team so they play their ass off.  Underdog heaven.

Load up on the favorite if the public is heavy on the underdog.  That is about my number one rule.

Fade chalk that the public is on heavy but the line does not move.  This is one of my mantras during the regular season but seems to come more into play during the bowls.  I looked at the top 15 teams that had the most 26+ points on them in my pool.  12 of those were chalk last year and 8 of those lost by the spread.

Stay away from teams who have not been to a bowl in a long time.  The players are all wide eyed and just happy to be there and get showered with gifts.  The game becomes an afterthought.  But if that team get to another one the following year, take them.  They learn their lesson.

I am raising my fee this year for my pool and expect well over 500.  The most wonderful time of the year!
 
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Posted: #66

 
Covers Rehab
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Posted: #67

thanks for bumping this i forgot where i put my shit that i posted in here...gonna print it out now
 
MVP
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Posted: #68

what do you make of alabama -17?
 
Legend
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Posted: #69

ò
 
Legend
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Posted: #70

Documented
[link from unapproved source]
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