View Our New Forum Updates. You can always switch back to what you're used to.
View Our New Forum Updates.
You can always switch back to what you're used to.

MLB - Chasing the "better" team

Participants:
Views: 767
Posts: 8
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2012
Posts: 207
Posted: #1

Hi,

crunching some numbers, I just stumbled about something, that could be interesting for further checking.

Chasing teams with a WP >.500 against teams with a WP<.500 (at game 1) over three games seems quite profitable. Since I'm looking for a three game chase, I will obviously just play series with at least three games. Fourth games were ignored in my approach so far. 

Common mind told me, that chasing favorites (assuming that the team with a above-average WP against a below-average team would be favorite) should be a desaster. Yet, the results seem to prove me wrong.

Since 2011 I come to the following results:

A-Wins: 690
B-Wins: 274
C-Wins:  98
Lost Series: 69

To avoid any early-season random result-flukes I started after each team involved played 10+ games.

In a first check, I used the following staking plan:
A-Game: To win 1 Unit
B-Game: To win 2 Units + Lost amount bet A
C-Game: To win 3 Units + Lost amount bets A+B

I just calculated with average odds, lacking the SQL-skills and/or the database to use actual odds. If someone can help me here, I would be thankful. Yet, at the moment it's just a interesting number and I will surely have a deeper dive prior to betting on it.

Yet, assuming average odds of just -250, the chase made +120.95 units from 2011-2018. 
With a probably more realistic -167, I end up with +549.13 units. Looks good as a start.

 

Yet, could anyone with some deeper SQL-knowledge as I have check my querries? Could also be a mistake on my side..

https://killersports.com/mlb/query?su=1&ou=1&sdql=game+number%3E10+and+season+%3E+2011+and+SG+%3D+1+and+H+and+WP%3E50+and+o%3AWP+%3C50+and+SGS%3E2&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

https://killersports.com/mlb/query?su=1&ou=1&sdql=game+number%3E10+and+season+%3E+2011+and+SG+%3D+2+and+H+and+p%3AWP%3E50+and+op%3AWP+%3C50+and+SGS%3E2+and+p%3AL&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

https://killersports.com/mlb/query?su=1&ou=1&sdql=game+number+%3E+10+and+season+%3E+2011+and+SG+%3D+3+and+H+and+pp%3AWP%3E50+and+opp%3AWP+%3C50+and+SGS%3E2+and+p%3AL+and+pp%3AL&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

 

Thanks!

 

I'd also love to get some remarks, thoughts, etc. what I maybe forgot or what I should consider in the future :)

 

Thasian

Quote Post Report User
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2012
Posts: 207
Posted: #2

Sorry for the double post - I'm quite new here and a quick look for the "edit" button was unsuccesful..

 

I'm just chasing HOMETEAMS with WP>50 against WP<50 opponents! 

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2012
Posts: 207
Posted: #3

Ooops. Had a problem with my numbers.

Correct results:

-167:  -244.11 

-250: -2306.12

 

So, please forget about it!

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2018
Posts: 174
Posted: #4

Hi, there's a group who is already doing something very similar.  They have a chase for teams > .525, and a chase for teams <.470, as well as some other interesting chases.  Some very profitable systems.  You can get more info here...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12pVL6ah2JKPTMoCzUyZFbtjYliaPw8EeWMGWZDQzThQ/edit#gid=1761969841

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2012
Posts: 207
Posted: #5

Quote Originally Posted by BlueStar57:

Hi, there's a group who is already doing something very similar.  They have a chase for teams > .525, and a chase for teams <.470, as well as some other interesting chases.  Some very profitable systems.  You can get more info here... https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12pVL6ah2JKPTMoCzUyZFbtjYliaPw8EeWMGWZDQzThQ/edit#gid=1761969841

 

Thank you very much! Looks great on the first view, I will definitely have a deeper dive!

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2018
Posts: 174
Posted: #6

Yeah, I use a few of the systems on that sheet.  Lots of good help and chatter there as well. GL!

 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2000
Posts: 11994
Posted: #7

Quote Originally Posted by BlueStar57:

Yeah, I use a few of the systems on that sheet.  Lots of good help and chatter there as well. GL!

 

Thank you. 

This is our 14th year

.an_cheers

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2017
Posts: 472
Posted: #8

https://www.covers.com/forum/ViewThread/102439289/beat-the-sweep-system

there are a few extra perameters on this system that you might want to consider applying.  if nothing else, worth a read

Desktop View: Switch to Mobile View