crunching some numbers, I just stumbled about something, that could be interesting for further checking.
Chasing teams with a WP >.500 against teams with a WP<.500 (at game 1) over three games seems quite profitable. Since I'm looking for a three game chase, I will obviously just play series with at least three games. Fourth games were ignored in my approach so far.
Common mind told me, that chasing favorites (assuming that the team with a above-average WP against a below-average team would be favorite) should be a desaster. Yet, the results seem to prove me wrong.
Since 2011 I come to the following results:
Lost Series: 69
To avoid any early-season random result-flukes I started after each team involved played 10+ games.
In a first check, I used the following staking plan:
A-Game: To win 1 Unit
B-Game: To win 2 Units + Lost amount bet A
C-Game: To win 3 Units + Lost amount bets A+B
I just calculated with average odds, lacking the SQL-skills and/or the database to use actual odds. If someone can help me here, I would be thankful. Yet, at the moment it's just a interesting number and I will surely have a deeper dive prior to betting on it.
Yet, assuming average odds of just -250, the chase made +120.95 units from 2011-2018.
With a probably more realistic -167, I end up with +549.13 units. Looks good as a start.
Yet, could anyone with some deeper SQL-knowledge as I have check my querries? Could also be a mistake on my side..
I'd also love to get some remarks, thoughts, etc. what I maybe forgot or what I should consider in the future :)