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AAF Power Rankings and Betting Guide for Week 3

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Prospect
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Joined: Jan, 2019
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Posted: #1

I'm including the preseason games for one more week, after week 3 I will discard those games:

 

#1. Orlando Apollos 3-0, 108 PF, 63 PA.

#2. Arizona Hotshots 3-0, 94 PF, 57 PA.

#3. San Antonio Commanders, 2-1, 81 PF, 54 PA.

#4. San Diego Fleet, 1-2, 58 PF, 58 PA.

#5. Birmingham Iron, 2-1, 55 PF, 45 PA.

#6. Salt Lake Stallions, 1-2, 60 PF, 65 PA.

#7. Memphis Express, 0-3, 33 PF, 75 PA.

#8. Atlanta Legends, 0-3, 29 PF, 101 PA.

 

This week's games:

 

-4.5 Arizona Hotshots at Salt Lake Stallions, O/U 44.5

+15.5 Memphis Express at Orlando Apollos, O/U 45

-6.5 Birmingham Iron at Atlanta Legends, O/U 38.5

+2.5 San Antonio Commanders at San Diego Fleet, O/U 43.5

 

Arizona at Salt Lake

I like -4.5 Arizona and the under here. Not all that much has changed since week 1 when Arizona beat Salt Lake 38-22 at home. Arizona didn't like the cold of Memphis in week 2 and squeeked out a 20-18 win, in a game that they trailed 12-0 at halftime as a 16 point favorite.

With both teams content to run the ball last week, 36 rushing attempts by Arizona, 31 rushing attempts by Salt Lake, and with a weather forecast indicating a high of 36 degrees on Saturday, I'd look for a low score here.

 

Memphis at Orlando Apollos

I won't be betting this point spread, but I do like the under. Fade Christian Hackenberg is still in full effect, with Orlando installed at -15.5. Memphis showed some signs of life last week vs Arizona, easily covering a 16 point spread. Orlando is coming off an emotional come from behind victory at San Antonio.

I think both teams will run the ball quite a bit in this game, and I don't see the Memphis defense giving up huge chunks in the passing game like San Antonio did last week. I think with the running game/clock churning and Memphis's inability to score points I like this game to go under 45 points.

 

Birmingham at Atlanta

I won't be betting this point spread, but I do like the under. Birmingham looked really bad against Salt Lake, getting dominated on both sides of the line of scrimmage. If not for Salt Lake giving away 18 points on special teams - 3 missed field goals, 1 botched snap on a FG, a punt returner getting stripped/fumbled for a Birmingham TD, the score of that game could have been Salt Lake 21, Birmingham 6. So Salt Lake should have won that game fairly easily even with totally inept QB play.

With Atlanta scoring a combined 18 points through the first two games, and Birmingham allowing a total of 9 points while scoring only 38 themselves, I like this game to go under 38.5 points.

 

San Antonio at San Diego

I like San Antonio +2.5 and I like the under as well. San Antonio beat San Diego at home 15-6 week 1. In week 2 San Antonio dominated Power Ranking #1 Orlando on both sides of the ball for most of the game, but they lost the game because they allowed two many deep passes, had some untimely penalties, and QB Logan Woodside threw a costly pick six that turned out to be the games final score.

Considering the under, these two teams combined for 21 points week 1, that on a climate controlled turf field. Mike Martz figured out he should run the ball more in week 2 vs Atlanta, both teams have strong defenses and like to run the ball, so in an outdoor setting I think under 43.5 points is looking good.

 

BOL with your bets in Week 3.

 

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MVP
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Joined: Jun, 2006
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Posted: #2

ty for the write up. i have Az hotshots -4.5. i like over but not for but a bit.   Under sounds good in others tho. good work here on Covers. gd lk
 
Captain
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Posted: #3

Good stuff Kemp. Did you lock in on Arizona and the Under? BOL bud
 
Prospect
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Posted: #4

Quote Originally Posted by motowner:

Good stuff Kemp. Did you lock in on Arizona and the Under? BOL bud

I bet slightly more on the under in the AZ/SL game and I also bet on AZ -4.5, ended up exactly pushing on account of juice.

Won the Under on Orlando, glad I avoided the spread, didn't like the -15 and there was no way I'd bet money on Hackenberg.

I locked in on -2.5 SA and the under tomorrow, as well as the under in the Birmingham/ATL game.

Thanks and BOL.

an_cheers

 
Prospect
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Posted: #5

I mean I locked in on +2.5 San Antonio, I keep forgetting they are the underdog.

 
Veteran
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Posted: #6

Great info appreciated!
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