Johnson's NFL Wild Card Weekend

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REGULAR SEASON:  53-44  (+510)
PLAYOFFS:  0-0

============================================

Finished the season with a nice week and some nice profit.  Added on the Colts last night, but since I didn't post it I won't count it towards the record.  Not the percentage that I necessarily wanted throughout the season, but a profit is a profit.  Now on to the playoffs where we continue to put in the same work and process that we do all year.

 
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Wild Card Weekend Line Projections:

Indianapolis  vs  Houston  (-3)    47
Seattle  vs  Dallas  (-2)    41

LA Chargers  (-1)  vs  Baltimore    45.5
Philadelphia  vs  Chicago  (-6)    45

 
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Wild Card Weekend QB Rankings:

1.  Andrew Luck
2.  Russell Wilson
3.  Phillip Rivers
4.  DeShaun Watson
5.  Mitchell Trubisky
6.  Dak Prescott
7/8.  Lamar Jackson/Nick Foles/Nate Sudfeld

 
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Dak Prescott over Nick Foles?

Wouldn't trust that part of the QB rankings at all. He might not even belong above Lamar Jackson

1. Andrew Luck
2. Russell Wilson
3. Philip Rivers/Nick Foles
4. DeShaun Watson
5. Mitchell Trubisky
6. Dak Prescott/Lamar Jackson/Nate Sudfeld
 
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Wild Card Weekend Game Breakdown/Line Analysis:

Indianapolis vs Houston 
PROJ:  Hou -3  O/U 47
ACTUAL:  Hou -2.5  O/U 47

Pretty easy to predict where this one would end up.  Both of their matchups this season ended as a field goal differential...and it's likely that this one will be in that range as well.  Houston played 5 of their 16 games against playoff teams this season and went 2-3 with the two wins coming in OT...and the OT win against the Colts was almost handed to them with the tough fourth down play call.  The Colts weren't much better...also going 2-3 against the playoff opponents.  All 3 losses were at the first part of the season...the above mentioned OT game against the Texans, then a road game in New England on a short week, followed by a lackluster performance against the Jets.  Colts are the hottest team in the league right now winning 9 of their last 10 games and the Texans are historically a choking playoff team.  First playoff appearance for DeShaun Watson, so the pressure is clearly on the home team here.  If i can get more than a field goal for whatever reason I'd be on the Colts but the OVER is also looking nice.  Initial prediction would be 27-24 Colts.  Stay away for now.

Seattle vs Dallas
PROJ:  Dallas -2  O/U 41
ACTUAL:  Dallas -2.5  O/U 42.5

Another game that was relatively easy to predict...and I think this is the game of the weekend.  Comes down to an experienced, veteran playoff team that is lead by a QB/Coach combo that has been to two Super Bowls and won one going up against a team that has an inexperienced QB/Coach combo who have yet to win a playoff game.  Strong lean towards the Seahawks here on initial view because of those reasons.  The Cowboys are one-dimensional...and in order for them to win everything needs to fall into place.  The game needs to be at home...Cowboys are 7-1 at home.  They need to score first in the game...Seattle is 12th in the league in first quarter scoring while the Cowboys are 1st in the league in first quarter defense...only 24 points allowed.  Dallas needs to win the running battle and Zeke needs to have a huge game.  The number one rushing offense in the league is...the Seattle Seahawks.  What is making me hesitate is the fact that if the Cowboys can score first they can easily control the ball and win the game.  I think that's exactly what this one will come down to.

 
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LA Chargers vs Baltimore
PROJ:  LAC -1  O/U 45.5
ACTUAL:  BAL -2.5  O/U 41.5

Toughest game to predict out of the opening weekend.  Chargers were clearly one of the best teams in the NFL all season long...fought for a number one seed.  Ravens started out hot, fell off the map, then were resurrected by a rookie QB who can't really throw, but is the most electric runner since Mike Vick.  Another reason why this one is a brutal game to cap is that the Chargers are historically chokers in the playoffs much like the Texans and Cowboys...but they also went 7-1 on the road this year.  Initial lean would be towards the Chargers because I think they are the better team.  The Ravens defense is very good obviously, but the Chargers just have so many darn weapons and can do so many things well that I feel like they will be able to move the ball quite a bit.  Baker Mayfield and the Browns moved the ball pretty well against the Ravens on Sunday...and they don't have half the offensive talent.  The one thing the Ravens defense doesn't really do is force turnovers...they were slightly below average in all turnover stats.  I see the Chargers defense being fast and athletic enough to contain Lamar Jackson and force him to throw more than he wants, especially if they can jump out to a lead.  Initial prediction would be Chargers 24  Ravens 20

Philadelphia vs Chicago
PROJ:  CHI -6  O/U  45
ACTUAL:  CHI -6  O/U 41

Will have to wait until closer to game time and see how the practices go this week for the true health of Nick Foles.  The Bears defense is no joke, and I'm sure Khalil Mack will be more than happy to test out those ribs and see how he feels.  Bears have an offensive coach but their pass/run % is only 53/47...which is more run-happy than most might think.  Eagles run defense is heavily praised by most, but they don't get run on very often, so the per-game stats might be a bit of fool's gold.  They do allow some big hitter runs...ranking 21st in the league in yards per rush.  Biggest difference in this game besides the health of the quarterback health is the turnover differential.  Eagles rank 25th in the league this year in turnover differential...unless Nick Foles does some Nick Foles stuff I can't see them winning this game.  Initial prediction Bears 28  Eagles 17

 
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Quote Originally Posted by NinjaNight:

Dak Prescott over Nick Foles?Wouldn't trust that part of the QB rankings at all. He might not even belong above Lamar Jackson1. Andrew Luck2. Russell Wilson3. Philip Rivers/Nick Foles4. DeShaun Watson5. Mitchell Trubisky6. Dak Prescott/Lamar Jackson/Nate Sudfeld

It's really close, but yes right now I would rather have Dak Prescott than Nick Foles

 
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I like chargers a lot this week. Revenge is for real in the nfl and chargers have some of that in mind this week... Baltimore really should have lost yesterday and eagles shouldn’t be there either except bears decided to play. I would say balty and eagles both lose. 
 
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Quote Originally Posted by bpickin:

I like chargers a lot this week. Revenge is for real in the nfl and chargers have some of that in mind this week... Baltimore really should have lost yesterday and eagles shouldn’t be there either except bears decided to play. I would say balty and eagles both lose. 
Shi*t I was thinking same 
 
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Will there be wind, low temps, snow, or rain in Baltimore? 

 
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Quote Originally Posted by lancer89074:

Will there be wind, low temps, snow, or rain in Baltimore?


Forecast is 50 degrees, sunny, with 11 mph winds... looks to be pretty normal conditions.

 
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Cant see your "projected score", for the Dallas/Seattle game(as well as THE ENTIRE right hand side of your thread), with this format.
Can you list, just your projected score, below again?
 
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Quote Originally Posted by CMJohnson1:

It's really close, but yes right now I would rather have Dak Prescott than Nick Foles


I think you don't realize how inconsistent and often times just plain bad Dak is as a QB. The Cowboys need to look for a different guy to be their franchise quarterback.
 
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CM...….Your score for the CHI/PHI game is how I see it, but perhaps less points for Phily.  28-10.  Good Luck with all your bets.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by NinjaNight:


I think you don't realize how inconsistent and often times just plain bad Dak is as a QB. The Cowboys need to look for a different guy to be their franchise quarterback.

Take what you want from this bud because I see that you really really like Foles. When I tell you that Foles sitting in the pocket is going to be an issue, just watch. It’s gonna be an issue on multiple levels and here is why: We keep hearing he’ll get the ball out quick; if this is the case he will be going against the best dime defense in the league. A secondary that leads the league in interceptions, return TDS. Why is that important? If the ball is getting out that quick it takes Alshon out of the equation immediately so that must mean they are relying on Tate, algy and the running backs to get open. There is no way the Eagles will sit him back there waiting for guys to get open soyeah, I do bekieve the idea that  he’ll try to get that ball out quick.Ok.....again though, this works right into the defense of the Bears. Foles isn’t gonna leave the pocket bud and if that run isn’t working which by the way, the Bears are number one against the run, what gives? Is Ertz gonna be the guy to create the mismatches? Multiple people in the Eagle camp have said he will stay in to chip block the ends. That’s very smart on their part.  I like Foles but Foles hasn’t faced a defense like this YET. He didn’t face one last year in the playoffs, he didn’t face one in the super bowl and he hasn’t truly faced one this year yet. Please don’t talk to me about Houston’s defense who is the worst defense when it comes to red zone. I have said this before and will say it again....aside from the Super Bowl win, if Foles somehow gets the W in Chicago, I truly feel it will be his second best win in the last year and change. Also the crazy thing to me is that nobody has talked about Trubisky an how the Philly defense will have to respect the run game, the exotic looks Nagy will bring and the idea that at any point, Trubisky can take off any time he wants. Philly does play the wide 9, so how do you beat that? You pound the ball against a man underrated o line and you put your backs out wide to either chip or force the ends to stay wide. I’m kind of exhausted talking about this matchup to be honest with ya but just giving you my THREE CENTS here. 
 
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Colts +2.5  ($110 to win $100)

Colts vs. Texans over 48.5  ($55 to win 50)

Think we get started with a great one here.  Colts defense has been huge...Texans don't have the offensive talent outside of Hopkins/Watson.  

Prediction: colts 27. Texans 24

 
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Cowboys -2.5. ($110 to win $100)

Seattle vs Dallas Under 42.5. ($110 to win 100)

Low scoring, running, defensive battle.  Cowboys are the NFL darling and it'll be helped through to the next round...field goal wins it late.

Cowboys 20 Seahawks 17

 
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Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:


Take what you want from this bud because I see that you really really like Foles. When I tell you that Foles sitting in the pocket is going to be an issue, just watch. It’s gonna be an issue on multiple levels and here is why: We keep hearing he’ll get the ball out quick; if this is the case he will be going against the best dime defense in the league. A secondary that leads the league in interceptions, return TDS. Why is that important? If the ball is getting out that quick it takes Alshon out of the equation immediately so that must mean they are relying on Tate, algy and the running backs to get open. There is no way the Eagles will sit him back there waiting for guys to get open soyeah, I do bekieve the idea that  he’ll try to get that ball out quick.Ok.....again though, this works right into the defense of the Bears. Foles isn’t gonna leave the pocket bud and if that run isn’t working which by the way, the Bears are number one against the run, what gives? Is Ertz gonna be the guy to create the mismatches? Multiple people in the Eagle camp have said he will stay in to chip block the ends. That’s very smart on their part.  I like Foles but Foles hasn’t faced a defense like this YET. He didn’t face one last year in the playoffs, he didn’t face one in the super bowl and he hasn’t truly faced one this year yet. Please don’t talk to me about Houston’s defense who is the worst defense when it comes to red zone. I have said this before and will say it again....aside from the Super Bowl win, if Foles somehow gets the W in Chicago, I truly feel it will be his second best win in the last year and change. Also the crazy thing to me is that nobody has talked about Trubisky an how the Philly defense will have to respect the run game, the exotic looks Nagy will bring and the idea that at any point, Trubisky can take off any time he wants. Philly does play the wide 9, so how do you beat that? You pound the ball against a man underrated o line and you put your backs out wide to either chip or force the ends to stay wide. I’m kind of exhausted talking about this matchup to be honest with ya but just giving you my THREE CENTS here. 

As I said in your thread I agree Bears have a strong edge over the Eagles. That's beside the point, we're strictly comparing QBs here, has nothing to do with teams. Foles in a system that fits him is much better than Dak. Dak is not even a good QB, below average I'd say
 
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That Cowboys game was snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory!!

 
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LA Chargers +2.5  ($110 to win $100)
LA vs Baltimore OVER 43  ($110 to win $100)

Too tough for a rookie QB to beat an elite team two times within a few weeks.  Ravens defense is right up there with the Bears defense, but I like the Chargers to take everything that they were able to do a couple weeks ago and adjust.  

Prediction:  Chargers 27  Ravens 20

 
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clover

 
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Chargers 
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