One of the biggest line movements of the year on a side is happening right now....

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Posted: #1

This is a great example line to quote when there are massive moves and who gets the money in the end: the books or the public...

Memphis @ UCF 

Opened at Memphis +9.5 on BetOnline
Currently Memphis +3

Yes B.O. opened it at +9.5 knowing Milton was finished. That was the line they chose.

I can’t think more than 10% of the money has come in on UCF at the moment.

So the books are going to pay out a MAJOR side of they misjudged this opener. Or they will collect massively.

This could be like Giants vs Patriots SB part 2 side where the line was Giants +3.5 and all I heard was “The wrong team is favored.”

Keep an eye on this one as it is still dropping and a great example for future reference.
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Posted: #2

Clem was 21 on same website & now 26 & heading higher 

champ week will bring lots of movement with few games to choose from 
 
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Posted: #3

Yes wahoo that is a good example but the MAGNITUDE of the spread movement relative to the original spread is far greater in the Memphis move:

(9.5 - 3)/9.5 = 68% decrease from the original line

Vs 

(26 - 21)/26 = 19% increase from the original line

And it’s not just the magnitude, it’s through the biggest key spreads in capping : 7,4 and sitting at 3 possibly going to 2.5 which would be gigantic.

I know you know this but moving from 3 to 2.5 of far more significant than a line moving from 21 to 21.5 or even 25!

The Memphis move in light of the above is enormous.
 
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Posted: #4

Wait Scal... so are you saying that Memphis is the right side??? 

Cause I am thinking with Milton out and the books opening this line at -9.5 says that UCF is the play here. Sucking in all those Memphis backers and laying a trap line. UCF trailed for 3 qtrs almost lost last time they played this season. Memphis +4 looks TOO EASY with Milton out now. 
 
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Posted: #5

They played earlier this year @ Memphis and line was UCF -4.5.  UCF barely won the game and should have lost the game..Memphis was up 17 in the 2nd quarter.  Now no Milton and neutral field game...Line is spot on @ -3.5... Opening line of -9.5 was never available...
 
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Posted: #6

Even without Milton I would lean UCF if the line is below 6.  Memphis is a pretty good team but they've lost 4 games.  Earlier this year they appeared to have UCF beat at home, the fans were going nuts and everything but they got outscored 14-0 in the 2nd half to lose 31-30.  That was the only close call for UCF as they beat everyone else by double digits.  This is a home game for UCF and I think they will take care of business even w/o Milton.  
 
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Posted: #7

Your math is wrong on % increase , but we get the point.  
 
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Posted: #8

Hoku, it’s very hard for me to believe that a Memphis team up 30-17 at the half (I believe the only time they trailed at the half all year), in the previous match-up this year (granted it was at Memphis), now translates into a 9.5 line or 7 (where it stayed for 2 days) or even 3.5 or 3 without Milton.

Milton is a transformative QB. This backup they have was overwhelmed at times and the defense, inspired by the injury played like the 85 Bears the rest of the game.

Now with Milton out, they opened the line as though he was playing!

4.5 for the first game

6 point swing from road to him

10.5 should have been the line and they shaved it a point!

So now it’s come down precipitously as the public pounded it.

UCF will have to:

1) have another all world defensive performance against an explosive in Memphis team with double revenge

2) And have Mack Jr 5/14 for 80 yards, do it again with his legs and arms

3) And have the running game be at top notch again...

Thats ALOT to ask and honestly, when I saw this one, I played the side at 9.5 and some ML. That’s just me. I think this win streak ends and it’s over for UCF. Its been a world class run.

All because a SF player chop blocks the QB And ended his season and possibly career. He should be suspended. If you watch the play he threw his body into his legs. Get that fu** off the field. I know guys will see it differently but that’s how I felt.


 
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Posted: #9

Quote Originally Posted by MosesGuthrie:

Your math is wrong on % increase , but we get the point.  

24% is the correct increase 
 
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Posted: #10

Quote Originally Posted by Super_Chicken:

Even without Milton I would lean UCF if the line is below 6.  Memphis is a pretty good team but they've lost 4 games.  Earlier this year they appeared to have UCF beat at home, the fans were going nuts and everything but they got outscored 14-0 in the 2nd half to lose 31-30.  That was the only close call for UCF as they beat everyone else by double digits.  This is a home game for UCF and I think they will take care of business even w/o Milton.  

Disagree Super.

It’s a very simple cap for me.

With Milton this team got the biggest scare of their life in two years winning in a squeaker by 1.

Now without Milton against the same team without injuries, they take care of business by 9.5,7,4.5,4 or even 3. The 3 is MAYBE feasible but all the other lines are ludicrous to me. The 9.5 has my jaw hit the floor.

South Florida is now trash. Take virtually nothing from that game. UConn almost beat them.

If the books were impressed by the post-Milton injury performance by UCF with this line setting, they will pay dearly.
 
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Posted: #11

Back up to 3.5 now....
 
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Posted: #12

Quote Originally Posted by davemsh:

They played earlier this year @ Memphis and line was UCF -4.5.  UCF barely won the game and should have lost the game..Memphis was up 17 in the 2nd quarter.  Now no Milton and neutral field game...Line is spot on @ -3.5... Opening line of -9.5 was never available...
you could get 9.5 for several hours yesterday , then it started to sink fast , was actually 10 on Saturday night for an hour or so then pulled down 
 
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Posted: #13

Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

Yes wahoo that is a good example but the MAGNITUDE of the spread movement relative to the original spread is far greater in the Memphis move:

(9.5 - 3)/9.5 = 68% decrease from the original line

Vs 

(26 - 21)/26 = 19% increase from the original line

And it’s not just the magnitude, it’s through the biggest key spreads in capping : 7,4 and sitting at 3 possibly going to 2.5 which would be gigantic.

I know you know this but moving from 3 to 2.5 of far more significant than a line moving from 21 to 21.5 or even 25!

The Memphis move in light of the above is enormous.
yes you’re correct, it’s much more significant than the Clem move
 
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Posted: #14

Quote Originally Posted by davemsh:

They played earlier this year @ Memphis and line was UCF -4.5.  UCF barely won the game and should have lost the game..Memphis was up 17 in the 2nd quarter.  Now no Milton and neutral field game...Line is spot on @ -3.5... Opening line of -9.5 was never available...

You’re actually going to come on here and allege that I didn’t get a -9.5 line that is currently in my pending wagers inbox

You have balls man....it never ends with you.
 
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Posted: #15

Opened 5.5 on scoresandodds last night.   
 
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Posted: #16

There was only one other line I saw this year with this magnitude of movement  (I’m sure there were others).

Northwestern opened -9.5 over Nebraska and settled at +3.5.

Just to note, Northwestern not only didn’t cover but never had a lead 14-7 outside the spread for 2 minutes after a fumble recovery TD.
 
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Posted: #17

Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:

Opened 5.5 on scoresandodds last night.   

-9.5 on BetOnline the AM after the game and -7.5 And -7 for two days after. Then to 4.5 yesterday and 3.5/3 today.

typo above:

Northwestern -9.5 over NEB open

Northwestern -3.5 over NEB at kickoff.
 
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Posted: #18

Typo: Northwestern not only didn’t cover but had a lead of 14-7 outside the spread for 2 minutes after a fumble recovery TD. Never were they outside the spread after that and won 34-31 failing to cover.
 
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Posted: #19

Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


-9.5 on BetOnline the AM after the game and -7.5 And -7 for two days after. Then to 4.5 yesterday and 3.5/3 today.

typo above:

Northwestern -9.5 over NEB open

Northwestern -3.5 over NEB at kickoff.

I would have jumped that 9.5 no doubt...  

What are you seeing on Stanford/Cal?   scoresandodds is showing Cal -24, and not only did they not correct it, but they threw a ML on it at -2300/+1225.   If you hit Vegas Odds, it shows 5 other books at the 24 or 24.5, and one at the correct 2.5
 
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Posted: #20

-2.5 Stanford on BO and 5Dimes now. If it was 25 it will be cancelled (obviously!). But that is weird to put an ML to that figure. No one could seriously think that could ever be the line. I wouldn’t even tie up my money.
 
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Posted: #21

Milton going down was an absolute shame. The guy was a winner, pure and simple. 
 
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Posted: #22

Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

Quote Originally Posted by davemsh:

They played earlier this year @ Memphis and line was UCF -4.5.  UCF barely won the game and should have lost the game..Memphis was up 17 in the 2nd quarter.  Now no Milton and neutral field game...Line is spot on @ -3.5... Opening line of -9.5 was never available...
You’re actually going to come on here and allege that I didn’t get a -9.5 line that is currently in my pending wagers inboxYou have balls man....it never ends with you.

Scal, are you going to take -3 too?

 
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Posted: #23

I took Memphis ML action Swan.

If you watched the last memphis UCF Game with Milton in, it will tell you a lot about this next game. (Heupel better have a BRILLIANT run/pass game plan for this backup. He was gang tackled several times. Light years from Cardel Jones if anyone is hoping for that.)


 
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Posted: #24

I recommend anyone betting this watch the last Memphis UCF game. Nail biter...

[link from unapproved source]
 
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Posted: #25

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