CFL week 21

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STD 39-31 

 

Feel fortunate to get a split in the CFL this past week.  Only game that truly matters this week is the Stampeders have to win to secure 1st place in the West, going on the road to BC.  I did have the 49ers and the Rams in the NFL, which ended badly in the last couple of minutes of both games.  Par for the course in the life of a gambler.

Dr. Bob, a well-known professional handicapper, has stated that must-win teams cover less than 35% of the time, so be careful if you decide to consider the Stamps on the road at BC this coming week.

Home divisional favorites in game number 18 have only been 10-14 ATS and 9-15 O/U in the CFL database, whereas home divisional dogs have been 5-3 ATS and 5-3 O/U.

Interesting that the Alouettes signed both quarterbacks Pipkin and Matthews though next year, and as far as I know, Manziel is signed through next year as well.  If I'm management  I look for the Roughriders to go quarterback shopping in the off-season and possibly also the Argos will too.  Without being on the ground close to the situation, I would think that Matt Nichols and Zach Collaros could at least be considered by management to be expendable if their teams don't win it all this year, and the Alouettes might consider offers on Manziel as well.  Looked to me as if the Als' Pipkin was just as good a quarterback as Manziel in his playing time this season.  The Bombers have a potential MOP candidate in Streveler sitting behind Nichols and he won't be sitting forever.

Indigo predicted lines throughout the year would have been money just taking teams that varied greater than a point and half from the linesmakers'.  This week though is a total crapshoot and I would be highly surprised I'll be interested in any of these games unless they made the Stamps some kind of outrageously high away favorite north of -7, then I'd be on the Lions.

Redblacks -7     Argos   52

Eskimos -6       Bombers 53

Tiger Cats -9     Alouettes  49

Lions +3           Stampeders 50

As the playoffs approach, keep in mind that CFL playoff favorites that won more games than their present opponent have only been 11-22 ATS

In other words past history says to consider playing ON dogs with a lesser record in the CFL playoffs.

 

 
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In the NFL a home divisional home favorite off two consecutive losses to put them  exactly at a .500 winning percentage has been 12-34 ATS, which moves to 6-25 ATS in either November or December.

DIV and p:L and pp:L and t:wins=t:losses  and HF  and month

AGAINST Ravens, Dolphins

 
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I be on BC for 300.00. Lulay just had a bad game. As for the others not worth since we don't know who is resting for playoffs

 
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When the CFL playoffs start next week, if/when  Winnipeg show as away dogs to either Saskatchewan or Calgary, I'll be on them.

If the Tiger Cats were to become  home non-divisional dogs (4-0-1 ATS) in the playoffs' database, I'll be on them. 

 
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In college football, home conference favorites that are in a sequence of having won their previous previous game as a home favorite, lost their last game as away favorite and now a home favorite of -14 or less have been 45-85-2 (-3.88) and 81-51-3 straight up. 

pp:HFW and p:AFL and HF and C and line>=-14

Average line and score  

-7.2                  27.9-24.7

Teams to look at going AGAINST this week would be the Washington Huskies and the Texas Longhorns

 
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Bet365  has put out three lines, which is a shock in itself as they are usually a follower, not a leader when it comes to linemaking and line presenting.....all the books are  dragging their feet on the only game that matters, the Lions/Stampeders' game.

Indigo lines in brackets

Ottawa      -7  (-7)           Toronto   53'    (52)

Edmonton -5' (-6)            Winnipeg 54'   (53)

Hamilton   -6   (-9)          Montreal 53     (49)

Lions             (+3)           Stamps          (50)

Here is a query using the premise that inferior teams do well the last regular season game of the year with a very small sample size.

game number=18 and tA(W)<.45 and oA(W)>.55 and D

6-3-1 ATS

Play ON a team with a winning percentage of <45% as a dog versus a team with a winning percentage of >55%.

 

Divisional Dogs with the lesser winning percentage overall have been 10-8 ATS and 5-13-1 O/U in game 18s....makes sense the games are low scoring, those teams already in the regular season will shut down their trick  and go-to plays until the playoffs and those out of the playoffs individual players are fighting for their jobs next season.

One game that would be interesting to me would be Hamilton  after going on a losing streak, if I'm the coach I'd want my team to kick butt the last game of the season over anyone to gain some confidence going into the playoffs.

Normally I'd be interested in the Eskimos versus a disinterested Bombers team, but as I've mentioned before the Bombers have a motivated back-up quarterback that is probably better than their starter, who could singlehandedly win the game for Winnipeg, so that game is out.  If Nichols starts, then possibly I'd play the Eskimos, and if it's Streveler it's a no-play.

Toronto?.....their quarterbacks have not shown even a glimmer of hope in their road games the whole season,...not sure if they'd beat a high school team in an away game.....a no-play for me.

 
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FYI -Trevor Harris will not play in this one as the REDBLACKS will rest some of their starters but they can’t rest them all.

Hamilton Mazloi injured his knee and swoll up game time decision

More interested in bc game hope they play all players will update Saturday morning

 
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Thanks Freddy.

The question is

"Why would BC play their best players when they have their playoff seeding determined?"

If they hate a division rival enough to risk guys like Lulay in attempt to knock off a team out of first place, maybe they'd play him....coaches are not always rational human beings, Wally chief among them.  I am allergic to Jonathan Jennings playing quarterback or even being the water boy, the guy gives me emotional fits of rage watching him overthrow wide open receivers and not caring too much about winning football games.

It'll also be Wally's last home game, correct?  Maybe that will be enough to galvanize everyone to give a supreme effort if the players revere him......and we all know about the Stampeders propensity to choke in big games.  

It's looking like a no-play for me, though  I never say "never".

 
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All lines are out...as expected, the linesmakers has made a number to try and attract Lions' money.

Ottawa       -6'  (-7)         Toronto    47    (52)

Edmonton   -4'  (-6)        Winnipeg  52    (53)

Hamilton     -7   (-9)       Montreal   48'   (49)

BC             +6  (+3)       Calgary    49'    (50)

Will probably wait until playoffs to make a play....would lean UNDER in the Toronto, Montreal  and BC games

In the playoffs will almost certainly be playing the Bombers as a dog of 3 points or greater, whether they play the Sasquatches or the Stamps.  I would make the Tiger Cats -4 over the Lions if Lulay is the quarterback and I'd be on the Lions at that price, especially good with Masoli carrying an injury.

 
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Damn now you got me thinking on the bc game. If everyone is playing than we know they want to win thats mt theory. Some coaches like to go into a playoff mode with a winning attitutue, others just protection

 
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Update

 
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Didnt paste but anyways the lions want a WIN for Walleys last game, but will update Saturday if any major changes we don;t want Jennings

 
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ok Freddy,

Plays:  

1)  Argonauts +7

2)  Argos/Redblacks UNDER 48

We'll see if the Argos can beat an uninterested foe.  Friday night away dogs have hit around 60% when their winning percentage is below 50%, or alternatively when they have less wins than their present opponent.  Per the CFL website Ottawa will rest all of their skill position players.

 
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No bet for me on bc looks like all teams are sitting out players except calgary. There saying Jenning will be rotated in the mix and sutton will rest

 
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Indigo what about Toronto ml?
 
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Good day Ibiza.....in football the pointspread comes into play about 1 out of 6 times when taking the underdog.....typically if one is finding some good data that says to take the underdog that has covered in the past 60% of the time, those underdogs will win straight up 42-44% of the time.

In all of my calculations of past history, the better ROI is ALWAYS to take the underdog on the moneyline.

Do I do so?

Hardly ever.

Your call.

 
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The question was, "can the Argos beat an uninterested foe playing second stringers?"

 

No, not even close.

1)  UNDER 48 winner

2)  Argos +7 loser

 
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In NCAA football away underdogs that outrush their opponents cover 77% of the time.

Consider looking at fading Washington State who is 8-0 ATS this season and is a home favorite versus Cal.

The Cougars rush for an average of 70 yards/game and give up 133 yards/game.

Cal rushes for an average of 186 yards/game and allows 147 yards/game, so there would be a high likelihood that Cal would outrush Washington State tomorrow.

Home  conference favorites of less than 14 points who have lost one or zero games, are ranked and  playing an unranked team have been 101-123 ATS going back 20+ years.

If those one or zero loss  home conference ranked favorites get outrushed and the line is less than -14 (average line -8.2) they are 14-59-1 ATS and they have lost straight up 40 out of 74 times......this moves to 2-14 ATS and 4-12 straight up in the month of November.

 

HF and t:losses<2   and C and rank<25  and o:rank=None and line>=-14  and rushing yards<o:rushing yards and month

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