CFL week 20 picks/thoughts

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38-28 ATS for the season.....

The teams I backed this past week in the CFL, NFL and NCAA missed about 13 kicks, extra points and field goals, ....really strange.

Hamilton blew their game and the chances of getting a Eastern Finals home game in losing to the Redblacks.....instead they will likely host a semi against a Western team, unless Ottawa were to lose their next two games and the Cats win their next two.

Sasakatchewan looked  like a champion in their game versus the Stamps, but how often does Zach play like he did in that game?  All of the other peices are there for the Sasquatches.

Calgary is swooning....it hurts when your four top receivers are out, but their staple, the defense has not looked elite like they normally would.  Usually as the season progresses fatigue and injuries take their toll and early season dominance is alleviated somewhat, but this kind of performance must be a bit unnerving to the Calgary fans based on what's happened the last couple of years.

Indigo lines

 

Winnipeg        -1'       Calgary               52

Hamilton         -7       Ottawa                54

Saskatchewan -5        British Columbia  50

Montreal         -2        Toronto              52

 
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Lines are out.

Mine in brackets.

Bombers -3'   (-1')     Stamps   53'  (52)

Cats        -3'  (-7)      Redblacks 54' (54)

Riders      -4  (-5)      Stamps     51' (50)

Alouettes  pik (-2)     Argonauts  49' (52)

 

 
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Teams playing a back-to-back as home favorites that lost on the road as dogs last week have been 23-24-1 ATS and 23-25 o/u.  This moves to 3-3 ATS and 4-2 o/u in October games, so no advantage there.  (Tiger Cats, Alouettes)

A home divisional favorite that has the greater winning percentage than their opponent has been 72-96-4 ATS, (-1.66) and 72-98-2 O/U (-1.89)   (Riders)  This moves to 21-31-2 in October games and 25-29 O/U.

HF and DIV and tA(W)>oA(W) 

Home favorites with the lesser record  (Argos, Tiger Cats and Bombers) have been 7-8 ATS in October

HF and DIV and tA(W)<oA(W) and month=10

One of the greatest stats to fade is yards per pass margin.  If our team has the advantage in the year-to-date stats and they are a home favorite their record is 80-106 ATS (-1.84)  This week that is the Alouettes and the Tiger Cats.

DIV and playoffs = 0 and HF and tA(YPPA-o:YPPA) - oA(YPPA-o:YPPA) > 0

The natural inclination would be to take the Tiger Cats and the Argos in an immediate revenge situation, but those teams with the better passing margins as home divisional favorites have only been 4-6 ATS and 6-4 O/U.

DIV and playoffs=0 and HF and tA(YPPA-o:YPPA)-oA(YPPA-o:YPPA)>0 and po:team=o:team

 

 
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Teams with the worse passing margin and the worse record  as home divisional favorites (Bombers) have been 25-22 ATS and 19-28 ATS, 4-7 ATS and 6-5 O/U in October

DIV and playoffs = 0 and HF and tA(YPPA-o:YPPA) - oA(YPPA-o:YPPA) < 0  and tA(W) < oA(W) and month=10

Teams with the worse passing margin but the better winning percentage and home divisional favorites have been 26-24 ATS and 15-34 O/U (Roughriders)

DIV and playoffs = 0 and HF and tA(YPPA-o:YPPA) - oA(YPPA-o:YPPA) < 0  and tA(W)>oA(W) 

 

Play:

 

1)  Riders UNDER 51'

 
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Home divisional favorites that have a worse defense (points per game) have been 47-74 ATS (Bombers) and 53-70 O/U.  In October this moves to 6-18 ATS and 12-14 O/U.

DIV and playoffs = 0 and DIV and tA(o:points) > oA(o:points) and HF

 

Play:  

2)  Stampeders +3'

 

We'll hope that Bo Levi figures it out with his receivers.

 
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Indigo999 do you know if the Stamps will have any or all of their  receivers back for the playoff game(s)?
 
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No, I don't know about the injuries, the Canadians here stop by and inform me what is going on with injuries and starting players, etc.

 
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Like the Calgary pick.  Winnipeg just back to practice today after a bye.  Probably tough to keep the momentum (and playoff like edge) they possessed for the past 4 consecutive wins. Getting the field goal and the hook is a bonus as I expected -2 to +2 either way.

 
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Nice to hear from you Carmy.....home divisional favorites on at least a 3 game winning streak are usually a fade in the CFL....

 

streak>=3 and HF and DIV

 

24-36 ATS (-2.24) and 27-37 O/U (-1.83),...

this moves to

4-12-1 ATS (-5.65) and 6-11 O/U (-2.71) in the month of October.

 
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In college football running the ball effectively still gets you the money.

Teams that outrush their opponent cover at 76.2% as away dogs.

 

AD and rushing yards > o:rushing yards and month < 12

 

AD and rushing yards>o:rushing yards and month<12

Now, who can be relied upon to rush the ball effectively?   

How about the triple option teams?

For the sake of this exercise we'll look at the service academy's records (when not playing each other) and Georgia Tech in the past 10 years.

Army 10-12 ATS

though they have been a competent team only in the past couple of years and they took Oklahoma to overtime this year as 28+ away dogs

Navy 14-6 ATS

Air Force 10-7 ATS

Georgia Tech 12-9 ATS 

 

Running the ball still matters.

 
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If our college away dogs have a line of <10 and outrush their opponent they cover at an even higher 77% rate.

 

On another note....think the home dog can cover?

Teams that are home dogs that score >23 points cover 75.6% of the time....if they score >27 points they cover 80% of the time!

HD and points>27

 
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On the other hand, home dogs that score less than 27 points cover 32% of the time

 
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Sorry, home dogs that score less than 27 points cover 38% of the time, NOT 32%.

 
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hey indigo, cheers on your hard work in this forum

was curious on your take for the grey cup final..its about that time for me, looking to pound some futures SU and perhaps in some other league parlays..i'm looking for value here..

i think winnipeg is capable at +700..personally i can see the roughriders pulling it out but little value on them i shoulda pulled the trigger earlier but better late than never..both ottawa and hamilton have garbage defences so no value on them either

bc has no qb so they're off my list

cheers mate
 
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I would make Winnipeg the favorite to win the Grey Cup.....hurts though that their stud do-everything strong side linebacker/strong safety Mo Liggett is out, probably for the season.

Here's another query relating to college football.....we are looking to fade a team that started the season with at least 5 straight wins, then lost their last game....those teams go flat as a pancake in conference game their next game.  We exclude December games and games where they are the away dog.

t:wins>4 and p:L and not AD and t:losses=1  and C    and month<12 and day=Saturday and site

The ATS record of those teams in the various sites....

neutral      1-5 ATS        Georgia Bulldogs

home      67-91-2 ATS    Ohio State next week

away      34-50-1 ATS    Cincinnati Bearcats, NC State Wolfpack

 

The West Virginia Mountaineers are also part of this, however their game is on a Thursday and there's not enough data to know if this holds up in non-Saturday games.

 
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Here are my plays this week. These will be Straight bets, and  I will also be playing Riders and the Argo's( already have the Stamps)

 

No NFL yet but I will add later just didnt feel strongly enough to add to my big parlay.

 

https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/8cf3e33aDNxcmdZQjEwaG5HdlV6VUtZK0UxUT09/r/802962/

 

good luck this week indigo.  Feel good about Cincinnati until i saw your query, maybe they can be one of the 34 and make it 35.

 

an_cheers

 
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Indigo could u pls if possible get me the answer for this in the NFL over last 10 years how many dogs with 13 pts or more cover ATS?  Thx you.

 
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Quote Originally Posted by Chauster:

Indigo could u pls if possible get me the answer for this in the NFL over last 10 years how many dogs with 13 pts or more cover ATS?  Thx you.

Dogs getting 13pts or more covering ATS over last 10 years in NFL is what I want just in case I wasn't clear with my wording earlier.

 
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Dogs of >=13 points in the NFL have been 48-304-1, winning straight up 13.6% of the time, losing by an average of 14.18 points/game with an average line of 14.6.

Their true line should be +735, so if you'd want a mathematical +EV you should be getting greater than +735.

Their ATS record has been 180-167.

The query language is...

D and line>=13

You're not betting your bankroll on the Buffalo Bills are you?

In college football, underdogs between 10-20 points, with an average line of +13.9 win straight up 16.6% of the time.

 
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Home dogs of >=13 points have been 21-15 ATS.

Home dogs of >=10 points have been 71-51-1 ATS

Home divisional dogs have been 34-30 ATS, 2-2 ATS on MNF.

 

HD and DIV and playoffs=0 and day and line>=10

 
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Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:

Dogs of >=13 points in the NFL have been 48-304-1, winning straight up 13.6% of the time, losing by an average of 14.18 points/game with an average line of 14.6. Their true line should be +735, so if you'd want a mathematical +EV you should be getting greater than +735. Their ATS record has been 180-167. The query language is... D and line>=13 You're not betting your bankroll on the Buffalo Bills are you? In college football, underdogs between 10-20 points, with an average line of +13.9 win straight up 16.6% of the time.

Thx you very much Indigo actually just thinking of betting against Buffalo but wanted to see what the ATS record was that I'm going against.  Actually thought dogs getting 13pts or more would be higher than 52% ATS record but surprisingly it's not.

 
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Thanks Indigo
 
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Like kissing your sister?

1)  Sasquatches UNDER 51' winner

2)  Suddenly free fallin' Stampeders +3' loser 

 

1-1 week, 39-31 ATS for the season

 

 

 
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Here is an NFL query relevant to two games tomorrow.....

AD  and not DIV  and and line>=3 and playoffs=0 month<12  and p:W and  t:wins=t:losses and tA(W)<=oA(W)  

51-34-2 ATS....indicated teams this week are the Seahawks and  Bucs

Decoding this...

1)  Non-divisional away dog of >=3 points in a regular season game

2)  not including December games

3)  our away dog just won their last game to get to .500 winning percentage

4)  our away dog has a less than or equal to winning percentage to their present opponent

The ATS margin average is not all that great (+1.07), the average line has been 6.3 and the average score has been 19.3-24.5, those indicated teams have been 25-61 straight up (-5.20)

 

Good fortune whatever you decide to do.

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