NHL/MLB GSGA/RSRA Spreadsheet

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Prospect
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Posted: #51

Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

Quote Originally Posted by LVDean:

Good morning. First let me say thank you for the hard work you have done in this spreadsheet. I do seem to be having a problem with the update feature. When press the "All" tab to update it will start to update but when it gets to around team 26 St. Louis it freezes up and excel stops responding. Can you please help to figure out what I am doing wrong with the updates. Thank you in advance.
So far, before I update....if I save and restart the file, it will fully update.  If I just hit save and then try to update without exiting, the file will freeze. This is a new problem and I don't know why.  I always used to update every morning, saving occasionally and never exit.

 

I was trying this spreadsheet out and it seemed to work fine on Sunday April 7th, but this morning when updating, the Chicago Cubs is coming up with an error and the Visual Basic error 13 box pops up.  Anything I can do to correct this?  Thanks for your diligence.  Great Excel spreadsheets.  

 
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Posted: #52

Quote Originally Posted by Hues10:

Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

Quote Originally Posted by LVDean:

Good morning. First let me say thank you for the hard work you have done in this spreadsheet. I do seem to be having a problem with the update feature. When press the "All" tab to update it will start to update but when it gets to around team 26 St. Louis it freezes up and excel stops responding. Can you please help to figure out what I am doing wrong with the updates. Thank you in advance.
So far, before I update....if I save and restart the file, it will fully update.  If I just hit save and then try to update without exiting, the file will freeze. This is a new problem and I don't know why.  I always used to update every morning, saving occasionally and never exit.
  I was trying this spreadsheet out and it seemed to work fine on Sunday April 7th, but this morning when updating, the Chicago Cubs is coming up with an error and the Visual Basic error 13 box pops up.  Anything I can do to correct this?  Thanks for your diligence.  Great Excel spreadsheets.

Sorry, been busy on another workbook.  Let me check

 
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Posted: #53

Quote Originally Posted by Hues10:

   I was trying this spreadsheet out and it seemed to work fine on Sunday April 7th, but this morning when updating, the Chicago Cubs is coming up with an error and the Visual Basic error 13 box pops up.  Anything I can do to correct this?  Thanks for your diligence.  Great Excel spreadsheets.

Again, sorry for the delay.  I haven't been using it but I just did it now and it's working fine.  It might have been an error on Covers part at that time.  It happens.

 
Prospect
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Posted: #54

Hey guys,

Quick question on the spreadsheet data regarding MLB -1.5RL backtesting.  Am I to surmise that backtested data from 2013 is showing an average annual profit of $267 and $497 units from the "Top 2" and "Top 2 ML" system plays, respectively, based on a $1 unit size?  This seems outlandish, which is why I'm probably misunderstanding the sheet.

Also, any help with the exact distinction between these two systems would be useful.  I understand each system uses a top 2 model with the appropriate progression betting. Thanks for all the hard work!

-ssquerd
 
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Posted: #55

SSQUERD, in one word "Yes"! (don't forget that these are parlays)

If you look at row 9 for Top 2 and row 32 for Top 2 ML, it will give you the year end totals for Away/Home/Total for each year.  I added all years...dang, I just realized that when I added 2018 to the equations, I forgot to divide by the additional year.

The actual numbers, against the ones you posted are 222.74 and 414.19.

If you download the spreadsheet on post #33, on the first sheet you can manipulate on home, away and get totals for all 6 years.

Top 2 is the top 2 RSRA (Runs Scored/Runs Against) numbers based on a formula found on 2 websites for NHL:

http://www.sportsbookinsiders. com/betting-systems/702-575-nhl-betting-system-goal-averages

https://www.thegreek. com/sports-betting/hockey/nhl-betting-how-to-predict-hockey-games-using-a-mathematical-based-system

I just did it for MLB as they are similar for wagering.

 

Top 2 ML is just the top 2 favorites of the day parlayed together.  Final numbers based on Covers' final lines.

The progression for both parlays are 1x, 2x, 3x, 5x, 8x, 12x, 18x, 25x.

 
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Posted: #56

I forgot to post...

I was able to find a formula to figure out the parlay odds using the two teams' money lines.  I was unable to find one for run line odds (or an archive of past RL odds).  So what I did was search and try and figure differences from parlay ML odds and the parlay RL odds.  I came up with a difference of roughly 350 (average) difference between the two.

Example from last night's winner:

Min -246, Lad -206 = +109 odds (based on my formula).  

To figure out the RL odds I just added 350 to the above making the Min/Lad -1.5 Parlay +459.  Sometimes it's better, sometimes it's worse.  I needed a round number as, like I said before, I couldn't figure out a formula for RL odds.  If someone has an idea I would look into it.

 

 
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Posted: #57

Thanks for the info Buckeye, this is helpful.

May I contribute my opinion to RL odds... I think your numbers are optimistic.  It seems a realistic reduction in odds equates to around 80, best case 100.  So a team that is listed -246 would probably be around -146 for RL odds.  A team at -206 may be around -106 RL odds.  If we parlay these odds (-146 and -106) our return is +227.  You have +459 listed in your example above.  Thoughts?  I'm wondering what the return on this system would be if numbers closer to mine were used?

Keep up the good work
-ssquerd
 
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Posted: #58

What I did, and I think I did it for NHL not MLB, was plug in 10 different games and the respective PL numbers and took the difference between the straight parlay and RL parlay and averaged them. +350 was roughly the average and I think I brought this number down from +400.  I was using 2 different web sites for these numbers (ML/PL) and I'm sure that didn't help.  Plus, I think the RL would be higher in NHL anyway as the percentage of PL wins in NHL is lower.

Before this, I tried to see if there was a correlation between ML and PL/RL (ex: -200 ML would equate to +110 on the RL)....there wasn't. A strong team like TB would have a lower RL as opposed to Cleveland which can't score for beans thus having a higher run line.

Your point is spot on and what I'll do is take the parlays I have already on my spreadsheet and figure an average from them and adjust it.  I will update the spreadsheet links and post the new one I made for just Excel 2016 users (very fast) that I use.

 
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Posted: #59

For those who wonder why I had to do this.....Covers does not have the Run Line odds in their past results, which is where I pull the info for the spreadsheet:

 
Prospect
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Posted: #60

Hey Buckeye, instead of trying to figure out the algorythm used by Las Vegas to calculate RL odds based on the ML, you could just start collecting current data and build a matrix.  Them you could use that matrix as a lookup table, using VLOOKUP.

At Pinnacle -202 ML correlates to -100 RL (using this mornings odds for the MIA-PHI game when I looked earlier today).

 
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Posted: #61

Quote Originally Posted by BlueStar57:

Hey Buckeye, instead of trying to figure out the algorythm used by Las Vegas to calculate RL odds based on the ML, you could just start collecting current data and build a matrix.  Them you could use that matrix as a lookup table, using VLOOKUP. At Pinnacle -202 ML correlates to -100 RL (using this mornings odds for the MIA-PHI game when I looked earlier today).

I was looking to just have a rough estimate towards what the take home total could be using the RL system, I'm trying to keep my spreadsheet lean...it's become bloated new_tounge_wink in the past.  

ssquerd is right in that I over stated the difference at +350.  Based on 24 parlays this year where I have the ML, I looked up and used another web sites RL odds.  The average difference between the ML and RL parlays is 157 (ex: ML parlay +200, RL would be +357).

Here's the thing, on one day I had a team at ML -220 with a RL at -109.  The next day, I had a different team at -220, but the run line was at -119.  This is just one example why I was using an average difference between ML and RL parlays.  I had one parlay that was +85 more than the ML (+100 to +185), while the next day a parlay was +210 higher (+121 to +331).

I will adjust my backtests for MLB RL parlays to just +150 more than the ML parlays on the sheets and then send them out.  Again, it's just a estimate, I doubt many people would get the posted final lines anyway.

 

 

 
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Posted: #62

So, were those final lines that you noticed were so different?  I imagine opening lines would be consistent, but closing lines get changed based on wagers throughout the day; so yeah, I would expect differences in the final numbers.

Anyway, good luck with whatever you come up with.  And thanks for all your hard work!

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