Why do people post picks without analysis?

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I like to post explanation for what Im choosing at least some of the time . It actually helps with my choices when I determine I cannot support my choice in contrast it reinforces my choice when its easy to write the analysis ... My personal feeling is that if Im going to post it folks deserve to know why .
Unless I have followed a capper and know his record because I;m tracking it I will pass on by a choice without an explanation . I can learn from an analysis and use some of the person's theory in my own endeavors .

Im aware that anyone can post many explanations for choosing either side of a game thus the write up is worthless , sometimes .
 
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Quote Originally Posted by Flush1:

I like to post explanation for what Im choosing at least some of the time . It actually helps with my choices when I determine I cannot support my choice in contrast it reinforces my choice when its easy to write the analysis ... My personal feeling is that if Im going to post it folks deserve to know why .
Unless I have followed a capper and know his record because I;m tracking it I will pass on by a choice without an explanation . I can learn from an analysis and use some of the person's theory in my own endeavors .

Im aware that anyone can post many explanations for choosing either side of a game thus the write up is worthless , sometimes .

Good post & to each their own

I’ll discuss games in my threads all the time, just don’t opt for big writeups as I’m not trying to convince others, I learn how others think by reading their stuff but not how to bet 

None of us owe each other anything so it’s everyone’s choice how they approach it, I think much of it depends on who’s doing the posting , at least for me

If someone I didn’t know wanted me to invest in something I’d want to know why & how it would benefit me, if Warren Buffett gave me a tip I’d just do it 

Billy Walters doesn’t give writeups to anyone, he just tells people what to bet

there are many ways to do it
 
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agreed
 
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Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:


Good post & to each their own

I’ll discuss games in my threads all the time, just don’t opt for big writeups as I’m not trying to convince others, I learn how others think by reading their stuff but not how to bet 

None of us owe each other anything so it’s everyone’s choice how they approach it, I think much of it depends on who’s doing the posting , at least for me

If someone I didn’t know wanted me to invest in something I’d want to know why & how it would benefit me, if Warren Buffett gave me a tip I’d just do it 

Billy Walters doesn’t give writeups to anyone, he just tells people what to bet

there are many ways to do it

 
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I thought everything was a secret with Billy Walters and his picks.


 
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If you write a book and loses, you are a dumbazz.  If you throw games without writing and loses, you just save yourself some money by switching to Geico.  

 
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Doesn't have to be a long statistical analysis. Just post the gut feeling.  "Seahawks have too many injuries" or " Dallas will win because they are pissed off and playing at home" will work!!  Just give us something!!  

 
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I like the in-depth stuff. Thanks to the posters. Would you rather trust the guy from Erie that says "I put 10k on The Bills. Lock of the year!"?

 
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The one time it should be mandatory to post a reason is when you are "fading the public".  That way, if someone else wants to fade the public (ie, Covers) he'll know to ignore your pick.

I'd guess 90% of the time people pick a game for one these reasons:

1)  Homer pick
2)  Picked them last week and they covered (or picked against the opponent and won)
3)  A top Covers capper already picked them

 
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It’s quite simple,in my case i use this as a handicapping tool,i have a database and it formulates my pik,i then go on here and read certain handicappers to make a final decision. So to say what my database does and what I am looking for, then write all the hcp’s i look at and accept, well , there just isn’t enough key strokes in my lap top.

Good luck playa’s
 
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Quote Originally Posted by On_Edge:

Wow, I learned something new today.  Even though I've posted a 20-10 record these first 3 weeks (and I'm not making up a YTD record - search EDGE PLAYS) I guess my plays didn't count because I didn't post write ups next to them.  I suppose people would have been better off following posters who gave out picks with analysis who ultimately have losing records.  Will they admit to having losing records?  Probably not.

No one says they didn't count.

It simply means people like myself, and others like me do not care about your plays win or lose. You post them for people to see but they are worth as much as the following line of characters without a write-up:

jasdlkfjalksjfdlkjasdlfkjsad

A guy in the NBA forum won 21 in a row. Lost one or two and disappeared. Never posted a write-up or explanation for any pick. So for all I knew he was just picking the teams out of a hat. 

I stood by and watched for entertainment only, as did many others.

(He later admitted he had no idea what he was doing).

Bator could show up on here for the first time in years, give a write-up and I'll trust it if the write-up is good (99% of the time it is). Even if it loses it's worth infinitely more than the 21 in a row out of a hat.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

The main reason is all writeups involve :stats,angles,trends,motivation,location, injuries, weather etc.....

Its the same stuff for EVERY game, the names and numbers just change. ANYONE can get that info....Very few can analyze it and pick winners. Im gonna let you in on a secret....the people that MAKE the lines know more than you do....its their job. Thats why you read about traps and fishy lines.....thats just people who dont know what they are talkimg about rationalize the line. They works literally been done for you. ALL factors have already been used to determine the line.

So, a writeup isnt a bad thing, its just unnecessary. The writings literally on your bookies wall......

They know more than I do about FCS I follow religiously? Ok! lol.

Then why do they cap those bets????
 
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Quote Originally Posted by iamhuge:

Then they post YTD records without any evidence of having achieved same.  What's up with that?  Asking for a friend.


Who specifically are you referring to about "posted YTD records without any evidence"?

The best honest cappers here grade their plays at the end of each week - win or lose - for everyone to see. They only create 1 thread for the week with their YTD and weekly records in full view. Their thread titles are typically just "Week 4 CFB" and some include their YTD records in their thread title which is ideal. No attention seeking titles or drama. Just weekly picks, which they then grade at the end of the week with an updated YTD record. So full transparency.

Now, there certainly are a lot of random posters and some longtime posters here as well here who post picks, but don't do the above so this is probably who you are referring to. But, it would be much better for you to address those posters in their individual threads and ask them about their lack of transparency instead of making a blanket statement here. Because, again, there are some real cappers here who do things the right way.

As for writeups, the best cappers here never do writeups for many reasons. Not only do they not have the time, but they don't live on the forum and are simply posting to share their plays to help others and for their own accountability. They're not trying to sell you anything and they don't care or even want you to "tail" them necessarily.

Finally, all posting history can be found by clicking on a poster's name. You can then sort by the forum in which they've posted in (CFB, NFL, NBA, etc). So if you're wondering specifically about a poster's YTD record in a specific sport for example, you can easily verify if the record they're claiming is true or not.

 
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I'm new to posting picks and I try to post some write-up or rationale because:

1.  I like the discussion.  If you just post picks with zero rationale there leaves little room for discussion...I feel forum is somewhere to post insights and discuss further.  Makes everyone better bettors and more informed (as long as the info is good and those who are mostly wrong or have 'bad takes' will be weeded out).  The view count and post amount is sometimes a good indicator of this.

2.  Because I am new I feel if I just 'post picks' it will be a fart in the wind.  There's plenty of people who seem to come thru and do that.  And if they have little to no track record I'm not sure what the point is or who is really 'following' their line of thinking.

3.  Because I am new I feel like adding my perspective and my line of thinking will help increase the discussion.  Also, if I do well, it will help build some credibility.  And if others provide good discussion it will only help us win money.  That's the point right?

4.  Lastly, including a write up helps refine my thinking -- and maybe, hopefully, could help someone look at things a little differently -- I know reading others reasoning over the years has helped me.

If you don't post rationale or don't like reading the write-ups that's fine.  To each his own...

 
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Quote Originally Posted by Odell_Bettin_Jr:

I'm new to posting picks and I try to post some write-up or rationale because:

1.  I like the discussion.  If you just post picks with zero rationale there leaves little room for discussion...I feel forum is somewhere to post insights and discuss further.  Makes everyone better bettors and more informed (as long as the info is good and those who are mostly wrong or have 'bad takes' will be weeded out).  The view count and post amount is sometimes a good indicator of this.

2.  Because I am new I feel if I just 'post picks' it will be a fart in the wind.  There's plenty of people who seem to come thru and do that.  And if they have little to no track record I'm not sure what the point is or who is really 'following' their line of thinking.

3.  Because I am new I feel like adding my perspective and my line of thinking will help increase the discussion.  Also, if I do well, it will help build some credibility.  And if others provide good discussion it will only help us win money.  That's the point right?

4.  Lastly, including a write up helps refine my thinking -- and maybe, hopefully, could help someone look at things a little differently -- I know reading others reasoning over the years has helped me.

If you don't post rationale or don't like reading the write-ups that's fine.  To each his own...

 
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No time.  ..... more important things to do, like reviewing a potential next play.

I try to let my record and my approach speak for itself.  Usually any longer CFB discussions are in the offseason when I do actually (on occasion) have more time.  Once the season gets rolling, life is chaotic and time management is difficult.
 
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Perfectly said by Motowner. Some do it right here but unfortunately most don't.
I've been reading Covers for well over a decade now and I've seen all the tricks in the trade by certain guys. And many of those guys are still posting picks today and some people think that because some of these posters have tags of "Veteran", "MVP", "Legend" or whatever that they're trustworthy and quality handicappers. Some are but most aren't and that's just a fact.

A handicapper's joined date or how well they're known by the forum has no relevance of how good they are at handicapping. None. In fact the best handicappers on this forum have only joined in the last year or two - guys with "Prospect" or "Rookie" tags. It's a new breed now, so out with the old.

Bottom line: Only guys worth following here are those with a weekly thread who show their wins/losses on each game at the week's end and then tally up their record. Just like how Motowner described it. Anyone who isn't doing that is clearly trying to hide something because it ain't hard to keep your record folks.

There's really only a handful or so of guys who do that here so choose wisely. And none of them do write-ups. Their winning records and picks which can easily be traced through are plenty enough to make you a ton of money if you're just looking to follow. Good Luck!

 
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Personally, I do my own capping so write-up, no write-up...I really don't give a damn. I come here for camaraderie and threads about eating booty. However, I will say this about write-ups. Let's say someone like Scal posts a long write-up. I'm not gonna be more likely to tail because I almost never tail but maybe I grab a lil tidbit of info that helps me with a cap three weeks down the road. That's still helping me. And isn't that what these forums are for? Cappers helping cappers?

Now, if I was a guy who did tail, who didn't cap, I wouldn't care if a pick came with a write-up or not as long as it won. With that said, if you are wagering and you don't cap, if you just blindly tail, then you shouldn't be wagering.

I started wagering in elementary and I had to cap. There was no covers. There wasn't really an internet. Kind of but not really. The only place small money players were getting picks were seedy 900 numbers. And screw that. I detested touts as a child and I haven't grown out of it. I even went tout myself early in the internet days, selling picks on EBAY and I did not dig it. Got too big, too fast, and I was too young to handle it. Anyway, I learned the ol' fashion way. I could pick few college football winners against the number and make myself and my family a little loot. And that hasn't changed. Every now and then my mother, or my sister, still calls me for a pick. That's the only touting I do.

Moral of the story is do your own capping.

 
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Most guys who feel they need to write a 15,000 word write up do it for one reason and one reason only, the need attention

Regardless. If I know someone, who writes NOTHING and yet weekly does great, why in the hell do I need someone who wants the world to look at his novel?

Give me a phucking break
 
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Don't get me wrong,  not a thing wrong with "discussion" but it's beyond pathetic when someone feels it has to be 15,000 words of drivel that can be said in 50 or less words

Its about that person NEEDING to hear themselves talk. Nothing else

That folks is pure fact
 
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Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


They know more than I do about FCS I follow religiously? Ok! lol.

Then why do they cap those bets????
Yes, they know more than you. 
 
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BTW - In a couple months it will be getting colder out. Just so you know, it snows in Wyoming. Keep that in mind
 
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Quote Originally Posted by motowner:


Who specifically are you referring to about "posted YTD records without any evidence"?

The best honest cappers here grade their plays at the end of each week - win or lose - for everyone to see. They only create 1 thread for the week with their YTD and weekly records in full view. Their thread titles are typically just "Week 4 CFB" and some include their YTD records in their thread title which is ideal. No attention seeking titles or drama. Just weekly picks, which they then grade at the end of the week with an updated YTD record. So full transparency.

Now, there certainly are a lot of random posters and some longtime posters here as well here who post picks, but don't do the above so this is probably who you are referring to. But, it would be much better for you to address those posters in their individual threads and ask them about their lack of transparency instead of making a blanket statement here. Because, again, there are some real cappers here who do things the right way.

As for writeups, the best cappers here never do writeups for many reasons. Not only do they not have the time, but they don't live on the forum and are simply posting to share their plays to help others and for their own accountability. They're not trying to sell you anything and they don't care or even want you to "tail" them necessarily.

Finally, all posting history can be found by clicking on a poster's name. You can then sort by the forum in which they've posted in (CFB, NFL, NBA, etc). So if you're wondering specifically about a poster's YTD record in a specific sport for example, you can easily verify if the record they're claiming is true or not.


 
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#49 Report User
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Motowner - 
 
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Quote Originally Posted by wmi799:

Most guys who feel they need to write a 15,000 word write up do it for one reason and one reason only, the need attention

Regardless. If I know someone, who writes NOTHING and yet weekly does great, why in the hell do I need someone who wants the world to look at his novel?

Give me a phucking break

Bingo. The thesis paper guys are so desperate for attention it's hilarious. They're the most over-reactionary and mentally unstable guys as well. A bookie's wet dream. And that's why they are terrible 40-45% cappers because they're prisoners of the moment in their analysis. They're just like girls with their opinions blowing in the wind, you can tell how emotional they are.. it's sad.
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