MLB road parlay system

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Quote Originally Posted by BBONES:

Hey Dan,What about parlaying the two best dogs of the day using Tony Stoffo Baseball Underdog System? Like you did in the past.  Wouldn't this produce a profitable season?Thanks,

 

I was actually considering running a system like this for the upcoming season. Basically, I would use Stoffos' three criteria for determining underdogs that qualify (avoid teams on a streak, avoid dogs at +150 or worse, avoid dogs going up against top 20 pitchers in each league).

After narrowing down our options, we would then take the two dogs with the best odds of winning and parlay them. We'd use the money management system that Tony Stoffos uses for two-team parlay chases (1u, 2u, 3u, 5u, 8u, 12u, 18u, 25u). So, we're basically combining elements from two of his systems.

We could even use his fourth criteria for narrowing down games and add in games with two top 20 starting pitchers. These games would involve taking the under. So one day we might take two dogs, another day we might take a dog and the under at -110, and another day we might take two unders. It all comes down to what the best odds are after we've narrowed our pool of games.

I can start a separate thread on this. Wanted to see if anyone here had suggestions/feedback before the start of baseball season.

 
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Quote Originally Posted by jaker122:

 

I was actually considering running a system like this for the upcoming season. Basically, I would use Stoffos' three criteria for determining underdogs that qualify (avoid teams on a streak, avoid dogs at +150 or worse, avoid dogs going up against top 20 pitchers in each league).

After narrowing down our options, we would then take the two dogs with the best odds of winning and parlay them. We'd use the money management system that Tony Stoffos uses for two-team parlay chases (1u, 2u, 3u, 5u, 8u, 12u, 18u, 25u). So, we're basically combining elements from two of his systems.

We could even use his fourth criteria for narrowing down games and add in games with two top 20 starting pitchers. These games would involve taking the under. So one day we might take two dogs, another day we might take a dog and the under at -110, and another day we might take two unders. It all comes down to what the best odds are after we've narrowed our pool of games.

I can start a separate thread on this. Wanted to see if anyone here had suggestions/feedback before the start of baseball season.


That sounds very interesting. If you started a new thread, I'd follow for sure. 
 
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 I will follow

 
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jaker,
Fist and foremost, welcome to the S&S forum 

"I can start a separate thread"

your prescribed system has a great deal of substance
I have some feedback, and an assessment to formulation.... 

we'll discuss all options in your upcoming thread.



 
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Fire it up Jaker peace_5

 
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Thanks for the support guys. I'll plan on launching a thread soon.
 
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Can use SDQL to narrow down the daily plays using 2 of the criteria (teams on a streak and +150 dogs), but would have to pull pitching data into a spreadsheet, or database, to cull out starters.

Look forward to this one!

 
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Quote Originally Posted by BlueStar57:

Can use SDQL to narrow down the daily plays using 2 of the criteria (teams on a streak and +150 dogs), but would have to pull pitching data into a spreadsheet, or database, to cull out starters. Look forward to this one!

We'd probably be using the normalized ERA (NPERA) for the top 20 pitchers from each league, which is calculated by USA Today's Jeff Sagarin. I wasn't familiar with his data until very recently. I think it's similar to FIP in that it is used to determine a pitcher's real effectiveness if factors like fielding, ballpark and weather are set to neutral.

I'd say for the first month of the season it would make sense to use the league leaders from last season. Then, say on May 1, we would start using the 2019 leaders to narrow down our games.

 
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Any thoughts on using the Bill James Pitcher Rankings?  Just throwing out food for thought, I'm not looking to complicate things.  

http://www.billjamesonline.com/polls_ratings/starting_pitcher_rankings/

 
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Quote Originally Posted by oilcountry99:

Any thoughts on using the Bill James Pitcher Rankings?  Just throwing out food for thought, I'm not looking to complicate things.   http://www.billjamesonline.com/polls_ratings/starting_pitcher_rankings/

A decent option as well. We could probably get away with several different stats for measuring pitcher performance. I might end up using standard FIP since that's what I'm most familiar with. That's TBD.

 
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FIP is a solid choice. Look forward to your system. 

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