MLB road parlay system

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I was thinking about applying my NHL road fave parlay system to baseball but the odds on large favorites didn't make it worth while. Enter the -1.5 RL. I searched and calculated the -1.5 RL win % for away favorites and saw that from 2014-2017, that is was pretty consistent, ranging from 42.5 - 43.8 win rate. Started back testing the 2017 season and through July 4 the system would be up $1,500 and that includes an 8 game loss of $740.

This is where I can use a little help from someone who is proficient at coming up with formulas on SQL. It is brutally painful going day by day on covers to pinpoint the top 2 road favorites, then using a different site for the RL odds.

If someone can come up with a script for the top 2 road faves, game result, odds on -1.5 RL if possible, I can go from there.

 
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i'm not very proficient with SDQL but following with interest.  keep it up dan.

 

 
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Dan,

I recall this guy was a wizard with SDQL last baseball season.  His last post was 7 days ago in the NBA Forum.  Maybe shoot him a request?

The_Extremist



 
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Hey Dan,

What about parlaying the two best dogs of the day using Tony Stoffo Baseball Underdog System? Like you did in the past.  Wouldn't this produce a profitable season?

Thanks,
 
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Of course right after I post this I continue from July 5 and get another 8 game loss. Still doubled bankroll with 2 losses.

I'm thinking of a few different things for baseball. Will report back.

Bones - Thinking about it.


 
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Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

I was thinking about applying my NHL road fave parlay system to baseball but the odds on large favorites didn't make it worth while. Enter the -1.5 RL. I searched and calculated the -1.5 RL win % for away favorites and saw that from 2014-2017, that is was pretty consistent, ranging from 42.5 - 43.8 win rate. Started back testing the 2017 season and through July 4 the system would be up $1,500 and that includes an 8 game loss of $740. This is where I can use a little help from someone who is proficient at coming up with formulas on SQL. It is brutally painful going day by day on covers to pinpoint the top 2 road favorites, then using a different site for the RL odds.If someone can come up with a script for the top 2 road faves, game result, odds on -1.5 RL if possible, I can go from there.

Hi Dan, I am a software engineer and do web scraping and create data bases for different sports. Been following your hockey road parlay system, thanks for that! What are you looking for with SQL? I work mostly in ruby and mysql.

 
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Quote Originally Posted by seanrh04:

Hi Dan, I am a software engineer and do web scraping and create data bases for different sports. Been following your hockey road parlay system, thanks for that! What are you looking for with SQL? I work mostly in ruby and mysql.

Sorry that should have read SDQL. I basically want to see how road favorites do on the -1.5 RL. A list of games by date (year) is all I need to start.

 
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Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

QUOTE Originally Posted by seanrh04: Hi Dan, I am a software engineer and do web scraping and create data bases for different sports. Been following your hockey road parlay system, thanks for that! What are you looking for with SQL? I work mostly in ruby and mysql. Sorry that should have read SDQL. I basically want to see how road favorites do on the -1.5 RL. A list of games by date (year) is all I need to start.

For 2016/2017 I am getting 43.21%. The detail you can grab off this google sheet.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jQEEgI-mTIiqbBT0T44XaVXylAC9g-K77umsORDm6eg/edit?usp=sharing 

 
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Dan, the_Extremist would be my choice

 
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Hey Dan,

What if you did not parlay the RL and just did the 8 game chase with playing 1 RL at a time with at least +150? The best away favorite with at least a payout of +150 or more.

Thanks,
 
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Quote Originally Posted by BBONES:

Hey Dan,

What if you did not parlay the RL and just did the 8 game chase with playing 1 RL at a time with at least +150? The best away favorite with at least a payout of +150 or more.

Thanks,

I'm working on something else that I'm testing now. Would be flat betting dogs in certain situations.

 
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I will be following this very closely, it looks like a good thing is coming. Keep up the good work Dan and guys!
 
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Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

QUOTE Originally Posted by BBONES: Hey Dan,What if you did not parlay the RL and just did the 8 game chase with playing 1 RL at a time with at least +150? The best away favorite with at least a payout of +150 or more.Thanks, I'm working on something else that I'm testing now. Would be flat betting dogs in certain situations.

Looking forward to your MLB system Dan. Thanks for all your efforts.

 
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Quote Originally Posted by peetee9:

Looking forward to your MLB system Dan. Thanks for all your efforts.

Sorry but I'm not posting any systems for baseball this year. I'm trying something using 10 SDQL queries and seeing how they do.

 
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Dan, just having some shower thoughts last night about this. 

Instead of taking the RL on the away favorite, what about the RL on two away dogs? Using my limited knowledge of SDQL, the RL on away dogs has a win rate of about 59% over the past 7 years or so. That's actually very close to the win rate of away favorites in NHL. 

Now, I wouldn't know which away dogs to take. That may be where an SDQL wiz may be needed. Perhaps the two strongest road dogs? Road dogs against teams with losing records? Only parlay the RL on dogs with lines between +100 and +120? Never play the RL on dogs with lines greater than +170? Thoughts on this? You can PM me if you want to take this private.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by rayfinkle005:

Dan, just having some shower thoughts last night about this. Instead of taking the RL on the away favorite, what about the RL on two away dogs? Using my limited knowledge of SDQL, the RL on away dogs has a win rate of about 59% over the past 7 years or so. That's actually very close to the win rate of away favorites in NHL. Now, I wouldn't know which away dogs to take. That may be where an SDQL wiz may be needed. Perhaps the two strongest road dogs? Road dogs against teams with losing records? Only parlay the RL on dogs with lines between +100 and +120? Never play the RL on dogs with lines greater than +170? Thoughts on this? You can PM me if you want to take this private.

Please don't take this private. As already said before; this is all new for me and I want to learn. Thanks guys.

 
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Does anyone have the link to his original MLB parlay road system thread?
 
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Quote Originally Posted by confucius1:

Does anyone have the link to his original MLB parlay road system thread?

Would be interesting !!! Have already looked for it also. Thanks.

 
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Danrules24,

I think you posted a MLB road parlay system in which you took the 2 lowest road favorites in a parlay.  I was wondering if that system was still good?  If not, is it because it went bad? 
 
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Since you said you'll check some SDQL systems, you can check this one: 
http://killersports.com/mlb/query?su=1&ou=1&sdql=line+%3E%3D120+and+WP%3E45+and+season%3D2015&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

Betting against it on RL (for a favourite) has been quite profitable in the last 10 years that I checked, also you get +odds in average. I was changing the line between +100 and +140 and +120 seems the best, although I haven't checked that in depth yet. Maybe we could find a sort of a chase system here as well.
Cheers,
J.
 
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ah, wrong data, this is a better one:

http://killersports.com/mlb/query?su=1&ou=1&sdql=line+%3E%3D120+and+WP%3E49+and+season%3D2017&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

 
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Quote Originally Posted by ChrisCovers:

Danrules24,

I think you posted a MLB road parlay system in which you took the 2 lowest road favorites in a parlay.  I was wondering if that system was still good?  If not, is it because it went bad? 

So far, betting the two lowest odds +1.5 RL's in a parlay has produced 2 wins in a chase, each time winning in game 2.  Proceed with caution, keep the $$ amounts low!
 
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Quote Originally Posted by confucius1:

Posted: Mar. 29, 2018 - 1:28 PM ET "Quote" Does anyone have the link to his original MLB parlay road system thread?
Quote Originally Posted by peetee9:

Posted: Mar. 29, 2018 - 2:00 PM ET "Quote" Quote Originally Posted by confucius1: Does anyone have the link to his original MLB parlay road system thread? Would be interesting !!! Have already looked for it also. Thanks.

 

https://www.covers.com/forum/ViewThread/102100590/mlb-2015-parlay-systems

 
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Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Sorry but I'm not posting any systems for baseball this year. I'm trying something using 10 SDQL queries and seeing how they do.

Looking forward to your updates.....have a great MLB season.

 
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Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

I was thinking about applying my NHL road fave parlay system to baseball but the odds on large favorites didn't make it worth while. Enter the -1.5 RL. I searched and calculated the -1.5 RL win % for away favorites and saw that from 2014-2017, that is was pretty consistent, ranging from 42.5 - 43.8 win rate. Started back testing the 2017 season and through July 4 the system would be up $1,500 and that includes an 8 game loss of $740.

This is where I can use a little help from someone who is proficient at coming up with formulas on SQL. It is brutally painful going day by day on covers to pinpoint the top 2 road favorites, then using a different site for the RL odds.

If someone can come up with a script for the top 2 road faves, game result, odds on -1.5 RL if possible, I can go from there.

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