Didn't even realize there was an Olympics forum...

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Posted: #1

Been doing ok so far on some hockey and curling picks, and hit Marcel Hirscher to win the alpine combined last night at +300 (sports I actually know something about).

Admittedly I know nothing about Nordic Combined but it seems like a light night and I want some action since the women's slalom was cancelled.

Combed over the season's results and I'm throwing some darts on:

Akito Watabe to win +300
Akito Watabe to podium -125
Fabian Riessle to podium +200
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Posted: #2

Women's GS

Manuela Moelgg (ITA) to podium +1100 
*only $50, half size bet.

She podiumed in the first 3 GS's of the year, hasn't in the last 4 (2 DNF's).  You could say that maybe she's been struggling lately but I think this is great value as she's got the goods in GS on any given day.  She specializes in GS and slalom as opposed to some of the other top girls that are more all event skiers.  This is Moelgg's best/only shot at a medal.

 
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Posted: #3

Well 1st run went about as perfect as possible...Moelgg in 1st place.  I still believe in the pick but the nature of ski racing is you're dealing with hundredths of a second and one mistake and your racer can blow it or be out of the course.  

Live betting has Moelgg to NOT podium at +110 and I'd be stupid to not lock in some profit.  

$200 on Moelgg to not podium +110.
 
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Posted: #4

Also playing Italy in men's curling against the US.  They looked strong defensively against Canada yesterday in a 5-3 loss, beat Switzerland in the 2nd draw, and they are a very good hitting team if they need to get themselves out of trouble.  US has only played one game, an 11-7 win but that was against Korea who is simply outmatched in this calibre of tournament.

Italy +200, $100  
 
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Posted: #5

Epic choke job by Moelgg in the 2nd run to finish 8th...oh well glad I didn't get greedy and took my profit when I could!

Just for fun, some late night cross-country skiing...

Ladies 10km Free:

Ingvild Flugstad Oestberg to win +2500, $20
Ingvild Flugstad Oestberg to podium +400, $30

Because I like her name lol!
 
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Posted: #6

WHATS On tap for tonight?

 
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Posted: #7

Decent day yesterday...

Couple more curling plays I'm really liking today.  Italy with the win last night by literally less than an inch on a final rock draw in the 10th end.  I've been impressed by this team, like I said yesterday they can hit with the best of them but when it comes to more finesse shots like draws you have to hold your breath a little bit.  As last night showed they can be prone to a lapse in focus every once in a while and let a team back in the game when ahead.  They are playing Denmark who is 0-2 with losses to Sweden (a top team), and the Swiss (middle), and they will be desperate for a win but I think Italy is the superior team and is considered a slight dog at even money.

Italy +100, $100

Also liking the over in the Sweden/USA curling game.  This US team plays a little bit like "cowboys"...they like to put a lot of rocks in play and let the chips fall where they may which can lead to some big ends both for and against.  It might not be the most advantageous way to win, but it sure can be more exciting to watch than the top teams sometimes that play a more buttoned down strategic game just trying to get their deuce with hammer.  My only worry would be if the Swedes don't play into this at all and try to keep a lot of rocks out of play, but I don't think the States has anything the Swedes will fear so hopefully they bang out a high scoring game.

Sweden/USA over 12.5 -110, $100


Men's Hockey

Well group B got flipped on it's head on day 1 with the Slovaks beating Russia in regulation for 3 points, and Slovenia upsetting the Americans in OT.  I get that you could say it's a let down game for Slovakia and the Americans will be desperate, but I honestly don't understand how the US is favoured here and by this much.  It's only 3 games to get out of the round robin so they all count and nothing is guaranteed yet for Slovakia despite their big opening win so I still expect them to be ready.  Neither team is oozing with talent but seriously, the US has a few college kids on the team.  I almost don't even care if it loses, the price is absolutely ridiculous though.

Slovakia ML +190, $100

 
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Posted: #8

Men's Super G

Starts at 9pm eastern, sorry for the late notice.

Aleksander Aamodt Kilde vs. Beat Feuz +137, $100

Taking Kilde in the h2h...he's more of a super G skier, Feuz a better downhiller, and Kilde will be looking to join the norwegian podium party from yesterday's downhill.  He has almost double the points of Feuz in the super G world cup standings this year and has beat Feuz (no pun intended lol) in the h2h in 3 of 4 races this year.
 
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Posted: #9

Kind of a crap day yesterday...some close losses and the one win got extremely lucky, if you count NOT GETTING EXTREMELY UNLUCKY as getting lucky.  Sweden was dominating USA in curling so badly that the Americans were thinking about shaking hands (ending game) after 6 or 7 ends which would have made the under 12.5 for the game despite a very high scoring (just lop-sided) first 5 ends.  Luckily the Swedish skip missed a couple shots that gave the US a glimmer of hope to keep playing and the over cashed.  

That combined with not trusting my gut on a couple later plays really hurt.  Denmark/USA went over 12.5 again in men's curling but the Swedish game (and falling asleep early) scared me off, and i was really debating playing Mikaela Shiffrin to not podium in the slalom which paid +550 but chickened out last minute.  She came 4th lol.

Anyway, on to today...not seeing a lot out there in curling games.  I'm probably going to keep riding the USA men's over trend for the remainder of the round robin but they have the day off today.  Canadian women's team is really struggling, I've never seen anything like it.  Missing routine shots by a mile and they are seriously rattled.  Sitting at 0-3 there's a good chance they miss the playoffs so they might be a fade as well as they are still always heavily favoured.  They don't play until the 2nd early morning draw of the day though so I haven't seen lines yet.


 
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Posted: #10

Women's Hockey

Going with the Swiss women in the 1st quarterfinal.  Been impressed when I've watched them so far even thought hey've been in the "B" pool against lesser competition.  They are a program on the rise and have a few ladies that can score, which we haven't really seen from Russia this tournament.  Granted it was games against Canada, USA, and Finland.  Nonetheless, the Swiss come in rolling, confident, and hopefully primed to make a best ever result by moving on to the semis!

Swiss women ML +105, $100
 
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Posted: #11

Posted this in the hockey forum about a week ago when it came up...

Women's Super G

Something I've had my eye on for a while now is Sofia Goggia to win the super G (+500) and the downhill (+250).  She won both the super G and downhill test events last year at Jeongseon ahead of Lindsay Vonn in 2nd by a considerable margin for ski racing.  She has 4 podiums in downhill this year, 2 of those are wins, and currently leads the World Cup standings in that event.  Super G she hasn't been as consistent this year but still has 2 podiums, and I actually think this is her better event.  She skis aggressive and goes for it, in her prime at 25 still young enough to be fearless but has been around long enough to have plenty of experience as well, and she absolutely loves and has confidence on this hill.  

The American media will be completely playing up Lindsay Vonn as the greatest ever, and she probably is for women, but the past few years she just hasn't been the same or dominant.  She's had a lot of crashes, injuries, and confidence issues, and you know there will be plenty of pressure on her as the favourite.  Could she still win?  Sure, but there's more value out there to bet.  Another girl I might include for insurance in the super G is Lara Gut to win at +400.  An all-around great skier and leads the super G standing this season. 

This is another sport where anyone can win on any given day...one mistake from your racer and their chance could be gone, or someone else in the field has the race of their life and your bet is toast so keep that in mind when betting.  But Goggia is my girl in Korea!


Lines have moved a tiny bit but I've had my eyes on this race for a while.  For tonight I'm going:

Sofia Goggia to win +507, $100
Lara Gut to win +500, $50
Lara Gut vs. Lindsay Vonn h2h, Lara Gut +137, $100

Adding the last one as Vonn has bib #1 which as we saw in the men's yesterday the first few racers struggled.  Super G is one run and you only get an inspection, no training runs like downhill.  Thinking Vonn might make a mistake or two being overly aggressive and the other girls at the top will have the luxury of watching the first few racers on monitors and see if they need to adjust any of their tactics.  Should be a good race, enjoy!
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