Lions -2.5 (3 units), Lions -3 (1 unit) --- refer to my analysis of Lions versus Packers which was a max play for me... Isn't this roughly a carbon copy. For me, the Lions are underrated for me. They have the talent and remaining schedule to finish the season 10-6. This is a must win game for them. They smell the opportunity and I expect them to show up for this game. The lions dispatched the Packers easily and its a similar match-up versus Chicago. A run first opponent with a rookie QB. but here is the thing, the Lions have a top-5 run D. Bears are at a disadvantage compared to Packers in passing game - receivers simply do not have the talent to create separation. Teams stacking the box against Jordan Howard, daring the Dears to beat them with the pass. Bears offense has no imagination and continue to run it (tried a bit more passing last week and still failed) against these formations on early downs, forcing Trubisky into long passing downs which are untenable given lack of WR/TE talent. I simply have no faith in Bears ability to sustain drives. And until they prove me wrong, I will be on that. Now the question is, can Bears D significantly outplay Lions O. Well, they couldnt outplay Packers weak offense. Lions offense has been improving and looks good. Most importantly, bears without Danny Trevethan, their field general, for the 2nd straight week. This is a bid deal for the Bears (their poor man's version of Luke Kuechly) and sways me from standard 2ish unit play to a conviction bet...
Eagles -3 (2 units), Eagles -4 (3 units) -- No Zeke ouch, no zean lee ouch, no tyron smith ouch... So let me get this straight, Cowboys are playing a better team with more momentum, with a better QB, significantly better D, and better coaching. To add to that Philly is finally healthy so perhaps we havent seen their peak. Now without Dallas injuries, I would stay away from this game or tease Dallas from pickem to +7. But Dallas is without their best offensive weapon (Zeke) and their best defensive weapon (Lee) who is perhaps the most underappreciated defensive player in the game and who has the same meaning for Dallas D that Luke Kuechly but does for Carolina.... I'm sold for 2 units. Now, I always that Tyron Smith was going to play. Hearing he will not play - wow, jumped on -4. Yes, there is a path for the cowboys to play inspired at home and coverr perhaps even win, thats why they lace them up afterall. But my money is betting otherwise.
1 unit parlay Lions -3, Phily -4.5
1unit ML parlay Lions, Phily, ASU
Call me a square, call me an idiot, agree with the logic... Discussion and thoughts are most welcome