Titus week 11 - 2 high conviction (~3x) plays with analysis

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Posted: #1

Gosh, I know these are the two most played public bets out there but I just dont care, massive conviction on both. For me, an average NFL bet is ~1.7 units, and max is 10 units (go over 4 units ~1x a week). Having 2 Sunday >4 plays is big...

Lions -2.5 (3 units), Lions -3 (1 unit) --- refer to my analysis of Lions versus Packers which was a max play for me... Isn't this roughly a carbon copy. For me, the Lions are underrated for me. They have the talent and remaining schedule to finish the season 10-6. This is a must win game for them. They smell the opportunity and I expect them to show up for this game. The lions dispatched the Packers easily and its a similar match-up versus Chicago. A run first opponent with a rookie QB. but here is the thing, the Lions have a top-5 run D. Bears are at a disadvantage compared to Packers in passing game - receivers simply do not have the talent to create separation. Teams stacking the box against Jordan Howard, daring the Dears to beat them with the pass. Bears offense has no imagination and continue to run it (tried a bit more passing last week and still failed) against these formations on early downs, forcing Trubisky into long passing downs which are untenable given lack of WR/TE talent. I simply have no faith in Bears ability to sustain drives. And until they prove me wrong, I will be on that. Now the question is, can Bears D significantly outplay Lions O. Well, they couldnt outplay Packers weak offense. Lions offense has been improving and looks good. Most importantly, bears without Danny Trevethan, their field general, for the 2nd straight week. This is a bid deal for the Bears (their poor man's version of Luke Kuechly) and sways me from standard 2ish unit play to a conviction bet... 

Eagles -3 (2 units), Eagles -4 (3 units) --  No Zeke ouch, no zean lee ouch, no tyron smith ouch...  So let me get this straight, Cowboys are playing a better team with more momentum, with a better QB, significantly better D, and better coaching. To add to that Philly is finally healthy so perhaps we havent seen their peak. Now without Dallas injuries, I would stay away from this game or tease Dallas from pickem to +7. But Dallas is without their best offensive weapon (Zeke) and their best defensive weapon (Lee) who is perhaps the most underappreciated defensive player in the game and who has the same meaning for Dallas D that Luke Kuechly but does for Carolina.... I'm sold for 2 units. Now, I always that Tyron Smith was going to play. Hearing he will not play - wow, jumped on -4. Yes, there is a path for the cowboys to play inspired at home and coverr perhaps even win, thats why they lace them up afterall. But my money is betting otherwise.

1 unit parlay Lions -3, Phily -4.5
1unit ML parlay Lions, Phily, ASU

Call me a square, call me an idiot, agree with the logic... Discussion and thoughts are most welcome
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Posted: #2

Tyron Smith is a massive massive deal... 

1) Dallas will learn, adjust, scheme from the falcons debacle. But if you can dress up a pawn to look like a king only so much

2) Philly defense and pash rush is significantly more explosive than the falcons.. 
 
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Posted: #3

I agree with both.  I would also like to know your opinion on this...  I see this sunday as the beginning of the Minnesota vikings demise.  If they lose to the rams and the lions take care of the bears , then detroit hosts Minn on thanksgiving and a detroit win would give them the division lead based on a season sweep.  The wheels could fall off very quickly for the current 7 - 2 Vikings.  Thanks
 
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Posted: #4

Did they officially rule Tyron Smith out?

I was waiting to hear on his status.
That is huge

I saw the line up to 4 1/2 on some sites now
 
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Posted: #5

Where did you see him being ruled out?
if you don't mind....I need to confirm this

 
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Posted: #6

Also detroit hasnt won a division title in nearly a quarter of a century which is hard to fathom. This is a great opportunity with the great aaron rodgers out of the mix
 
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Posted: #7

Quote Originally Posted by diondimucci:

I agree with both.  I would also like to know your opinion on this...  I see this sunday as the beginning of the Minnesota vikings demise.  If they lose to the rams and the lions take care of the bears , then detroit hosts Minn on thanksgiving and a detroit win would give them the division lead based on a season sweep.  The wheels could fall off very quickly for the current 7 - 2 Vikings.  Thanks


I have a view, will get back to you shortly on this.. 
 
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Posted: #8

Quote Originally Posted by EastsideBangers:

Where did you see him being ruled out?
if you don't mind....I need to confirm this


not sure if its OFFICIAL with a capital O but lets go with what use to be a coin/flip to most likely case per Jane Slater who is well informed and doesnt post conjecture... 

I had to jump the second news came out in case this line goes to 5+ 

https://twitter.com/SlaterNFL/status/931267076467118081




 
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Posted: #9

Quote Originally Posted by diondimucci:

Also detroit hasnt won a division title in nearly a quarter of a century which is hard to fathom. This is a great opportunity with the great aaron rodgers out of the mix

Yep, but Arodj will be back for Carolina game - you heard it here first... Lets see how the next 3 weeks unfold for both teams... Still, best opportunity Lions will ever have. MOTIVATION
 
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Posted: #10

Adding 

Washington +8.5

Denver -2.5
 
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Posted: #11

sorry, each for 1 unit
 
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Posted: #12

Lions 

Bears did everything to cover, but bang... ML Parlay is open to win 1.6 units


Fly eagles fly
 
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Posted: #13

Titus - thoughts on SNf now with Philly at -6?
 
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Posted: #14

Quote Originally Posted by JefeGarcon:

Titus - thoughts on SNf now with Philly at -6?

I mean , if I’ve either read this game correct, we should be roughly in the same boat. 

I do have a parlay of pats -7, eagles -6 and Los Angeles Kings ML as an upside bet



 
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Posted: #15

BOL, Titus!

 
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Posted: #16

Dallas is covering 6... eagles are winning this game.... +6 was the perfect play. Now  let’s see if I’m right 
 
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Posted: #17

Bangggggggg
 
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Posted: #18

 
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Posted: #19

Quote Originally Posted by bum:



Bum good to see you my friend
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