Saint won back to back weeks

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Posted:

Context means everything with these rules of thumb? Did the trend start as mere circumstance and random? Or is there something holding it together?

Saints have many offensive weapons, a talented O-line, and a future HOF qb.

Plus, over the last 7 weeks, Saints own the NFL's #1 defense in both yards and points allowed (which is really a team stat) by a wide margin. Plus they are the league's #2 offense.  That is pure trend bucking team domination.

Now, does Kirk Cousins and the Algonquins have what it takes to overcome all that, on the road, and buck the trend against THAT team?
 
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#52 Report User
Posted:

Here's an interesting queary to take notice. Sample size is very low...

A team who previously scored 40+ and game before scored 30+ and held both opp to <12  and are Home favs. is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS. Look at the teams who are in this queary...you'll spot something unique...
 
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That's the thing. Sure. Saints are a juggernaut. But the skins own them 66% of the time. Saints are 4-8 SU and ATS vs them since 89. Skins keep it close...
 
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What about the other 34% of the time? What happened since '89 is irrelevant.  Some of the players on both rosters weren't even born yet.

Jesus.
 
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SO lets see how MR bator rulle did on all teams from 2007 thru to 2016 PARAMETERS being two games scoring 30 or more points and holding foes to 10 points or less in each game EX: Win 30-9  WIN 30 -10 third game fail ats home or away.

I'm tweaking MR Bator's system here as you will see

HERE we go FROM Arizona to Wash.

not quite but failed Cardinals in 2015 W 48-23 W 47-7 next game home -7 pts lost s/u to Rams 22-24

1W --0L again in 2015 double blowout W 40-17 W 38-6 -6 pts home vs seattle lose s/u 6-36
2W--0L

 2008 Falcons W 24-0 W 34-20 -6.5 home vs broncos s/u loss 20-24

3W-0L
2010 Falcons W31-10 W35-18 -2.5 points home vs saints S/U loss
14-17 on MNF
4W-0L
  2012 again W 34-0 W 35 -18 -3 pts home vs TB s/u loss 17-22
5W --0L
 2016 tho nope  W42-14  W 41-13  -3 @ panthers on TNF W 33-16

but 4th game - 7.5 vs saints at home blown cover 38-32 6 pt win

5W _-1L

2008 Ravens NO fail W 36-7 W34-3  -6 pts home vs Redskins blow out #3 24-10 BUT again 4th game they failed miserably -3 pts Home vs steelrs s/u fav loss 9-13

5W --2 L  But chase to 4th game 2-0
no wait i got it wrong because the 4th game came after double blow outs

W 34 -3 W 24-10  see they only gave up 13 points in two games

6W-2L

2008 again Ravens W 27-7 po's  W27-9  po's +3@ titans W s/u 13-10

but 4th game and final po game +6 @ steelers loss 14-23

6W -3L  but 3-0 in 4th games

ravens 2009 W 48-3 W 31-7  @ steelers lost 18-23 +3.5 pts
7W -3L
2011 W24-10 W 24-10  no not 30 points but only 10 points allowed in two blow outs -1 pt at chargers s/u blow out loss 14-34

8W--3L 2014 again W48-17 W 29-7 -3 pts @ Cincy LOss s/u 24-27

9W--3L

Bills 2013 Win 27-20 W 19-0 +7.5 @ N E loss 20-34 not exactly blow out 1st game but total allowed was only 20 points in two games 46 points scored only 20 allowed

10W 3 L

2014 Bills W38-3 W 26-10  +9.5 @ Denver WON the BET losing by 7 17-24

10W --4L
2016 Bills fail  W 30-19  W 45-16 - 2.5 @ Dolphins L s/u 25-28

11W --4L

2008 Panthers fail W 24-9 WIN 34 0  +1.5 pts @ TB loss 3-27

12W --4L

Not counting 09 vs saints who went bench on way to superbo0wl win that year also any other team who did not play final game of year

this is not meeting the 30 points scored and 10 pt's or less allowed  in two blowout wins but in 2011 panthers W 27-19  AWAy W 38-- 19 Away home dog +3 points flatter than a pancake loss to ATL 23-31 ??

2011 again fail W 28-13 W 48-16  + 9.5 @ Saints LOst 17-45

13W --4L tweaking the system

2013 Panthers thos NO fail W 35-10 W 30-15 - 6.5 TNF @ TB W 31-13
13W --5 L
again same year in midst of 7 game win streak W 30-15 W 31-13

home - 8.5 W 34-10

13W - 6L
 
W 31-13 W 34-10 @ 49ers +6 points win s/u 10-9

13W 7 L

2014 panthers fail in PO's W 34-3 W 27-16 +13.5 at seattle lose 17-31
14 W -7L
2015 failure W 44-16  W 33-14 -5.5 @ saints LOST ATS 41-38
15W--7L
 W41-38 W 38-0 -6 @ Giants lost ats 38-35

16W --7L same year now
PO W 31 - 24 PO W 49-15  superbowl -5.5 s/u loss 10-24

17W --7L

2016 end of year W 28-16  W 26-15  home dog + 3 loss to atl 16-33

18W --7L

Da bears 2011 W37-13 W 31 -20 +3 @ OAK LOSE 20-25

19W --7L and wheels fell off after being 7-3  5 str8 losses no PO's

2012 fail again W 34-18  W 41-3  bye week then home MNF - 7.5 to Lions LOST ats 13-7
20W 7L and will finish this later my eyes are blurry

any way you are winning at .74%  tweaking this system

dsent matter if they dont give up 10 pts or less in two games it's after winning huge like 28-14 and 35-16 will cause a loss ats and or s/u






 
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#56 Report User
Posted:

Quote Originally Posted by wizard1183:

That's the thing. Sure. Saints are a juggernaut. But the skins own them 66% of the time. Saints are 4-8 SU and ATS vs them since 89. Skins keep it close...

what the fuk does what happened between the two teams with 100% different players since 89 have to do with sundays contest?
 
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#57 Report User
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Mr .Bator are you going to play money line as well on this game ? 
 
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#58 Report User
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Some of these trends that people bring up do my head in, Here's a trend for this weekend, A team who had Ed Hochuli ref their game and then the following week had more than 4 players kneel for the anthem and their coach lose both challenges, Don't do well on the road the following week.
 
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Posted:

My quote button doesn't work....

@Prospect: by your statement dogs in the SB covering at a staggering % doesn't mean anything cause those ABs are too far back lol
 
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Posted:

Quote Originally Posted by SwishSwish1234:

Some of these trends that people bring up do my head in, Here's a trend for this weekend, A team who had Ed Hochuli ref their game and then the following week had more than 4 players kneel for the anthem and their coach lose both challenges, Don't do well on the road the following week.


How far back is the sample size?
 
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#62 Report User
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I am the last person that should be going agaisnt saints right now, but who said they won’t win by 1?
 
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Posted:

CONTINUE MY results tweaking MR Bator's system

Using all blow outs b 2 b

Bengals 2012 no fail W 31-13 W 28-6 -7.5 vs Raiders W 34-10

20W--8L 2013 fail W 42-14 W 34 -17  -6 pts in PO's vs chargers at home s/u loss 10-27

21W --8L 2015  fail W31-7 W 37-3 home -1 pt s/u loss to Steel 20-33 

22W--8L

Browns Fail 2010 W 30-17  W 34-14  +3.5 home pup L to Jets 20-26  and browns only won 5 games that year

Cowboys wow in 07 5-0 start  4 blow outs W 37 -20  W 34-10 -13 home vs Rams W 35-7 

22W -9L 

but next series they flopped bad W34-10 W 35 -7 MNF @ Bills the whole world got screwed they win by 1 point as a 10.5 road chalk 25-24 

23W --9L

again same year W 38-17 W 31-20  -11 home vs skins L $$ ATS win by 5 pts

24W --9L again same year W34-3 W 37-20 -10.5 @ Lions L ats win by 1 point 28-27

25W --9L

2008 W 35-22 W 34-9  +4.5 @ Steel L 13-20

26W --9L

2009 NO fail W 37-21 W 38- 17 +3 @ Eagles WIN game 20-16

but again the 4th game they failed  -3 @ Packers s/u loss 7-17

 the 4th game is now 4-0 

26W--10L

2009 not counting 1st time because it was same team eagles who lost thier center in 1st game

but 2nd time we count as failure

W24-0 W 34-14  +3 WC @ Vikings LOST bad 3-34

2010 no fail W 33-20  W 37-19 + 3.5 @ saints covered 27-30

funny wade phillips fired after 8 games yes going 1-7 will do that



26W -11 L

2011 fail W23-13  W 34-7  +3 pup @Eagles L 7-34

27W--11L

2014  fails and not winning huge W 34-31 W 38-17 -4.5 home vs Texans L ats 20-17 3 point win

28 W 11L

W 30-23  W 31-21  home -9 pts MNF to redskins S/U loss 17-20

the whole world lost that night
again same year W 31-17  W 31-28  -3 home TNF s/u smack down by Egales losing 10-33

30 W --11L

but next series no fail W 41 -28 @ Bears W 38-27 @ eagles -3 Home Vs Colts W 42-7

30 W -12L

W 38-27  W 42-7  -6 @ Skins W 44-17

30-W 13L

W 42 -7 W 44-17  -6 home PO vs Lions lose ATS 24-20 W

31-W  --13 L

Broncos 07 fail W 27 -10 W 34 20 +1.5 @ Chicago L 34-37

32W  -13L

09 fail W 26-6  W 44-13 +6.5 @ Colts L 16-28

33W --13L

2012  W 31-20 W 36-14 home - 7.5  VS Chargers L ATS 30-23

34W --13L

ahhhhhhh damn well of course it was thye browns

W 26-13 W 34-17 both games away -10 home vs browns W 34-12

and they won 4th game also -17 vs KC 38-3 who had bad year 2- 14

and romeo Crennel got fired

so the 4th game is now 4-1

34W -14 L

but they gave it back W 34-12  W 38-3  PO home game -9 points vs Balty the same team they beat @ Balty 34-17 a S/U loss 35-38

dont feel bad donkeys Balty won the bowl that year

2013 fails W 49-27 W 41-23  MNF home - 17 ATS loss 37-21

35W -14L

W 37-21 W 52-20  -7.5 @ Dalls L ATS 51-48

36W-14L
W 52-20 W 51-48 home - 26.5 vs Jaguars L ats

it's not blowout wins it's scoring over 100 points in two games

37 W ---14 L

W 35 -28  W 51 -28 @ home then TNF @ home -9.5 vs Chargers

everybody lost even G ma had broncos teased too but they lost the game s/u 20-27 Under 57

again broncos fugged every one

W 37-13 W 34-14  PO - 7.5 vs Chargers L ats 24-17

38 W --- 14 L then evryone thoughbroncos with peytn manning # 1 scoring offense and on a 32nd ranked sos would win - 2 points in the superbowl VS the # 1 D in NFL Seahwks 1st time playing in outdors at Giants jets home too

LOL i was so happy at 1/2 time

Laters

38W 14 L  73% Winners




 
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Continue : MR Bators rule tweaked by me so far great results

LIONS 2014 fail W 34-17  W 34-17 3rd home game -8 vs vikings ATS $$ loss won by 2 points 16-14

39W -14L

PACKERS 07 W 34-0 W31-17 -3pts  @ lions W 37-26 BUT 4th ga
me failed +7 @ cowboys 27-37 loss 4th games are now 5-1

39W -15L
 07 again they fail W38-7 W 33-14  then @ bears -8.5 pts s/u loss 7-35 wow

wait they failed again in playoffs

W34-13  PO W 42-20 2nd  PO -8 pts s/u loss to Giants 20-23

41 W --15 L

lots more from packers

in 09 W 26-0 W 31-3  -3.5 Home vs Vikes S/U L 26-38

42W ---15L

failed in PO same yr.  W 48-10  W 33- 7 @ cardinals PO  -2.5 @ cardinals s/u loss 45-51 

43W -15L

2010 W 45-7 W 31-3 +2 at falcons L 17-20

44W -15L

2011 W 45-38 W 45-7  home - 14 vs bucs L ats 35-26

45W--15L
2012  W 42 -24  W 30 - 20 -16pts  home vs jags ATS L 24-15

46W --15L

2013 W 31-13 W 45-- 31 MNF home - 10pt to bears the whole world loss a s/u loss 20-27

47W --15L

2014  W 38-17 W 42 10  @ miami - 1.5  squeak a win 27-24 

47W - 16 L
then this loss W55-14 W 53-20  -7 pts @ Vikes ATS loss 24-21 squeaker

48W --16L

then the PO failure

W20-3 W 30-20 home PO - 6 VS Dallas L ats 26-21

49W --16L

2015 W 17 - 3 W 24-10  Home - 11 VS Chargers L ats 27-20 W

50W --16L

 W 28-7 W30-20  +6 pts @ cardinals wacked 8-38

51W --16L

TEXANS 07 this is funny really W 24 -17 @ Raiders W 23-10 vs saints ...+3 points at browns LOST 17-27

again same yr  W 28-14 W 31-13  +7 @ colts L 15-38

53 W --16L

2011 W 34-7 W 23-12 + 3 @ saints L 33-40

54W -16L

then an incredibl win streak ats 41-7 W  24-14 W 30-12 W

54W 17 L

 30-12 W  37-9 W  -6 @ jags W 20-13 did nt fail 4th game +2 home vs Falcons W s/u 17-10

54 W 18 L

2012 W 30-10 @ jags  W 27-7 @ Denv. - 1.5 pts W 31-25 

54W --19 L 

again  same yr  W 43-13  W 21-9  @ bears +1 pt WIN 13-6

but 4th game at home -15.5 pt vs jags L ats 43-37

4th games are now 6-1 

55W --19L

again same yr. W 45-21  W 27 -13  +6 @ Indy L 10-17

56 W--19L

ome more time W34-6 W 30-6  Home PO +3 vs KC blanked 30-0

57W --19 L

COLTS in 07  W 38-20 W 33-14 bye wek then mnf -3 @ jags W 29-7  4th game also -7 @ car W 31-7 

4th games 5-2 now

57W 20L

W 29-7 W 31-7  +5.5 H vs Pats cover Loss by 4 20-24

57- 21 L  but 4th game no -3.5 @ chargers s/u L 21-23 

4th games now 6-2 

09 W 31-10 34-17 -4pts @ tenn W 31-9

57- 22L

4th game after bye  @ RAMS -14 POINTS W  42-6

4TH GAMES NOW 6-3 then after that  5 W ats streak  4 losses ats last two - 2.5 vs Pats -2.5 @ ravens

so this series they loss W 31-9  W 42-6 then home -13 pts VS SF L ats 18-14 

58W 22L wait we got one more this year the worse loss ever favored too

PL W 20-3 vs Balt  PL W 30-17  vs Jets - 5 VS sainst in the bowl

s/u loss burial   17-31

59W  --22L

2010  fail W 39-14 W 29-13  -7 pts @ Jags s/u L  28-31

60W --22L

2013 NO fail @ SF +10.5 W 27-7  @ Jags -7.5 W 37-3  Home dog +3 Vs Seattle W s/u 34-28 

60W --23 L but  4th game @ Chargers -1  on MNF got wacked 19-9 s/u L

4th games NOW 7-3

2014 -6 @ jags  W44-17  home - 7 vs Titans W 41-17  then i go against them - 2.5  Home VS ravens They won by 7 20-13

60W --24L  4th game also -2.5 @ texans tnf W 33-28

4th games now 7-4

this was weird not in system just strange  after W @ houston Home -3 vs Cincy a shutout 27-0  then @ steerls - 4.5  LOL adding the hook making sure you lost ........ They got ears handed to them

51-34 loss then @ Giants on mnf - 3 W 40-24 of course many teams do this i call a BB win after a DD loss of 10 or more points

i jumped all in on Pats as 3 point dog @ Colts and Colts had aBye week before this game Kaboom blow out loss at Home s/u chalk 42-20 

ok in the system same year LOL

W 23-3 Home -13 pts vs jags Home - 7.5 VS wash W 49-27

then @ browns i say nah no way they blow this -3 fav win by 1 pt
25-24 

61 W 24L

next post character limit






 
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#65 Report User
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Continue Colts

2014 fail in PO's PO W 26-10  PO @ Denver +9.5 W 27-13 finals +7 @ Pats L 45-7 

62W --24L  72% wins ok at $100 per game ++$3560 NET

and we have 18 teams left

    

 
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This is brutal some of you guys are arbitrarily modifying. Bators simple 30 / 10 parameters.  I bet bator is feeling like hes talking to autistic children right about now 
 
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Meh, Skins have had plenty of chances to get competitive in the NFC and have blown most of them. Had the lead vs KC, blew that. Got destroyed by the Eagles, got destroyed by Dallas, lost to Minnesota at home recently.

I've been high on the Saints all year and have been playing on them the last few weeks so not sure i NEED to lay 9 with them now, but this time of the year teams that are rolling tend to keep it going and I wouldnt be taking the Skins in the dome considering how bad their D is vs the pass. Norman is so overrated he got abused by Case Keenum and that's with Minny having no run game.

NO is my pick to win the NFC, even with as good as the Eagles have been playing. And NO knows they need that homefield they won't take games off. I have a funny feeling the Eagles will sputter at the end of the year or be one and done like Dallas last year, just with the lack of experience at QB and maybe the RB by committee not working so well down the stretch plus the backup tackle Vaitai is not very good.

I think the NFC championship will be a rematch of the week 1 matchup Vikings and Saints. But maybe that's just being from Philly we expect our teams to do great in the regular season and then fall at the last hurdle. Still if the Saints get anyone in the dome with their experience at QB and HC and they're run game and defense playing so good now I like them a lot.

If you're taking this trend you're basically hoping for a SU loss and cover, I think if you're taking a dog in the NFL you should only take dogs you think can win SU most of the time and I don't see them beating one of the hottest teams on the road with Brees at the helm and a great run game when they couldn't beat a similarly hot team at home, who only had Keenum and a mediocre run game.
 
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I agree. I think it's Saints Vikings NFCCG
 
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If it comes to fruition? I actually hope Saints play in Minny for it. They're a much diff team than the first meet. 

As for this week? Saitns have never beat Skins in the Dome in 25 yrs. 0-4 SU and ATS last 4 home games. Take it for what it's worth. 
 
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Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:



Well, you’re looking like a fool anyways (along with some other guys around here), because you’re as of yet unable to comprehend the rather simple parameters of this long-running trend. Wmi799 re-posted it on this page and he thoughtfully used red lettering to hopefully help guys out. 

To repeat, the Saints are the first team this season to qualify for this system. Can we all at least get THAT straight?

Always good to hear it from the source. I'm in on Redskins this weekend - thanks! 
 
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Redakins ahould cover the 7.8/8 points. 
 
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I thought i posted the simple parameters to run the query. it goes like this

Any NFL Team who scored 30 or more and gave up 12 or less now playing a non division opponent is 3-22 all time vs. the spread.
Simple. Run it through the database. SOLID GOLD BOYS!! 

The theory is both sides of the ball have peaked, the line will be inflated and Washington has an 88% chance to cover based on this trend.heres the link

http://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query?output=default&sdql=DIV%3D0+and+po%3Apoints%3C%3D12+and+ppo%3Apoints%3C%3D12+and+30%3C%3Dp%3Apoints+and+30%3C%3Dpp%3Apoints+and+season%3E%3D1992&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++
 
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yes i get the paramters but i found more results for yus juist going by any double blow out wins and only giving up lie 25 points in two games

JAGUARS

this year only W 27-0(bye week)  W 23 7  -4.5 VS Cahrgers L ATS 20-17 3 pt win

63W --24L

CHiefs
2010 W 31-13 W 42-24  -8.5 pts vs Denv. at home W by 4 points 10-6


64W --24L

again later in yr W 27-13 W 34-14  -4.5 home fav vs raiders s/u L 10-31

65W--24L

2013 reids 1st year W 26-16 W 31-7  - 2 pts @ titans W 26-17

65W --25L

but wow later in year

W45-10  W 56-31 - 7.5 Home vs colts s/u L 7-23

66W- 25 L

2014 W 34-15 W 41-14  +4.5 @ 49ers L 17-22

then no fail W 34-7  W 24-10 +2.5 @ Bills W s/u  17-13

66W --26 L

 2015 wow 6 huge wins ats also

W 23-12  @ london W 45-10 bye week +3 at Denver Ws/u 29-13

66W --27L

W 29-13 W 33-3  -4.5 h vs bills W 30-22

we end it thre cause it was only an 8 point win


66W ---28L 2016 PO fail

W 33-10  W 37-27  -2.5  in PO  L s/u to steelers 16-18

67W --28L

Chargers 07 W 41-3 W 28-14 (BYE week) -10 Home VS Texans W 35-10

67W --29L

then fail W28-14  W 35 -10  -7@ vikings S/U L 17-35

68W--29L

again same year

W 51-14  W 23-3  -9.5 @ Oak W 30-17




W 32-14  W 24-10 -1 pt@ tenn W 23-17

68W ---30 L


in 08 tho no good

W 48-29 W 28-10 -6 @ Miami s/u L 10-17
 69W --30L

09 W 32-3  W 43-14  @ Browns -14 L ats 30-23

70W-30L

2010 W35-14 W 36-14 home -13 to Oak s/u L 13-28

71W 30


again fail same yr W31-0  W 34-7  -8 @ Bengals L s/u

20-34

72W --30L

2011  W 38-14 W37-10 +1 Home vs Ravens W 34-14

72W --31L

then fail W 37-10 --W 34-14  pck @ Det L 10-38

73W --31L

2014  W22-10 W33-14 W 31-0

73W --32

then fail W33-14 W 31-0 -7 @ Oak L ats 31-28 squeaker

74W -32L

ok done for now

.698% Wins
 
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RAMS  2010  W 30-16  W 20-3  +3 @ lions L 6-44

75W  ---32 L

2013 W 34-20 W39-13 +7.5 at Car L 15-30

again fail same yr W 38-8 W 42-21 +7.5 @ 49ers L 13-23

one more time W 29- 16 W 28 -10 +11.5 @ Seat L 9-27

77W  -32 L and rams only won 7 games in 13

2014 wow W 52-0  win 24-0  -6 home TNF vs cards s/u loser

6-12 

78W  -32 and they finsihed 6 -10 in 14

2015 W24-6  W 27-6  +1 @ Vikes lose 18- 21 and 7-9 that year

79W --32L

DOLPHINS

2011 W 31-3 W 20-9  W 35-8

79W --33L

W20-9 W 35-8  +7 @ Cowboys Cover 19-20

79 W ---34 L and the kicker here is they started out 0-7 and only won 6 games

2012 W 24-3  W 24-10 +11.5 @ Pats shut out 0-28

80 W--34L

2014 W 29 - 12 W 37-0  +3 @ lions lose 12 - -20

81W --34L

2015 W 38-10 W 44-20  fill in the blank _______+ 8 @ Pats TNF

82W ---34 L

thats it gotta go

.77% wins @ $100 per game +++NET $4460.00 and $446 per year
 
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VIKINGS  2007 W 41-17  W 42-10  W 27-7

82W --35L

W42-10  W27-7  mnf home -10.5 vs bears L ats 20-13


83W --35L

in 08  W 30-12  W 35 -14  -10.5 @ Lions L ATS 20-16

84W --35L

in 09 W 34-20  W 27-13  home -7 pts vs 49ers LATS 27-24 squeaker

85W --35L



W35-9 W 36-10 -3.5pts @ cards L s/u 17-30

86W --35L


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