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Posted: #1

Alguien sabe de un sitio de apestas de credito en mexico?
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Posted: #2

Questions.

Here's one way to win at gambling: Ask Questions.

Then wait for the answer. When you get the answer, apply it to your next pick. These teams will answer with their performance. Vegas will answer with it's line-setting.

We asked the questions this week.

Where did this Wyoming -6 line (which eventually got to -4 as it dropped during the week) come from?

Where did Navy +7 come from?

As you can see with Memphis -3 and these games, these big books cannot focus on these smaller conferences and put out sharp lines. ND is a very public team too and that line was way off as well.

Some of these lines are the proverbial "Bizarro Lines". Wyoming was that. Navy was that (ND never had a real shot to cover that). And Memphis was that.

Since we now have the answers to the questions, that books put out bizarre lines, we can use the answer that they do, to pick a Jets Miami side.

And I see no good reason why Miami shouldn't be -7 at a minimum or greater.

Why do we need that answer? Because we as gamblers are skeptics. We question OURSELVES too much and talk ourselves our of a pick when the answer is right in front of us.

On to this Miami -4 pick.

Why take Miami?

The injuries

Here come the Jets just like the Ravens a few weeks ago as the walking wounded.

Here is the list of Jets injuries: Carter LB (Out); Clady OL (Quest.); Kellen Davis TD (Out); Giocomini OL (Quest); Darron Lee LB (Out); Mangold C (Doubtful); Qvale OL (Doubtful); Shell OL (Quest); Skrine CB (Limited Practice); Wilkerson DL (Doubt/Quest).

Folks that's FAR too many injuries at too many key positions for a 3-5 team to endure in back to back road games against a conference rival.

Mangold ALONE is a big injury. And let's remember, Fitzpatrick had his head drilled early last week and wasn't all that sharp the rest of the game, at least in terms of optimal expected performance.

Miami will be missing Cameron, Howard, and Sims. Not chopped liver right there but nothing like the bevy of injuries suffered by the Jets.

So right off the bat, the Jets have the "Walking Wounded" moniker.

Advantage: Dolphins

Tannehill vs. Fitz

I know you guys dislike Tannehill but right now is Fitz, a guy who lost his starting job to Geno Smith better? His magic in the Ravens game WILL dissipate at some point and he's not all that sharp anyhow.

Tannehill's performance has been on the uptick the past two games: 15/25 204 1 TD 0 INT vs. Bills and 24/32 252 vs. Steelers.

Pretty damn good...for him.

And here's a bonus, a VERY big bonus:

The Jets have the WORST pass defense in the NFL allowing 289.1 passing yards per game. Opponents have thrown 15 TD's in 8 games against them. Opponents have a 98.6 QBR against the Jets, 27th in the NFL. Opposing QB's are completing 66% of their passes for 23rd in the league.

Is that bad enough? It gets worse.

The Jets give up the explosive play (you know, the one that will get you the cover or get you out to a quick lead). They have allowed 27 pass plays of 20 yards or more. And they are getting worse. Seattle and Cleveland last week both had SIX plays of 20+ passing yards. Cleveland....Cleveland had that...Passes of 71, 72 and 84 yards this year folks. Scary...

Here's what the Jets will do: They will load up the box and use their number 1 rush D to stop/contain the run and dare Tannehill to beat them.

But when you have the worst pass defense, 4 points, playing on the road in the second straight week, basically signaling to Tannehill they will do this (calling him out essentially), it's not a good thing to bet on in the Jets.

We all know of Tannehill's struggles. This game will basically be a statement of Tannehill's career from now until hereafter. If he can't do well against this pass defense, he's essentially done. He knows that. That's a good thing. For my money, I'll take Tannehill in that spot.

And if Tannehill fails?

Revelation at Running Back

Jay Ajay is going for his third consecutive game of 200+ yards. Will he get it? It is likely he won't. But what will he get? 100? 120? 130? Those numbers are paltry compared to what he's gotten the past 2 games and they are still outstanding totals.

The Steelers have an very good Run Defense (8th on that week they played the Fins) and couldn't stop him. The Bills have a poor one and he torched them too.

The Jets have the best one but do we even need 200+ yards to cover this number? No! We don't even know what this kid is yet. His wild card of a performance threatens the Jets number 1 run D and they have the worst pass D. That's a bad spot for the Jets.

 
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Posted: #3

Questions.

Here's one way to win at gambling: Ask Questions.

Then wait for the answer. When you get the answer, apply it to your next pick. These teams will answer with their performance. Vegas will answer with it's line-setting.

We asked the questions this week.

Where did this Wyoming -6 line (which eventually got to -4 as it dropped during the week) come from?

Where did Navy +7 come from?

As you can see with Memphis -3 and these games, these big books cannot focus on these smaller conferences and put out sharp lines. ND is a very public team too and that line was way off as well.

Some of these lines are the proverbial "Bizarro Lines". Wyoming was that. Navy was that (ND never had a real shot to cover that). And Memphis was that.

Since we now have the answers to the questions, that books put out bizarre lines, we can use the answer that they do, to pick a Jets Miami side.

And I see no good reason why Miami shouldn't be -7 at a minimum or greater.

Why do we need that answer? Because we as gamblers are skeptics. We question OURSELVES too much and talk ourselves our of a pick when the answer is right in front of us.

On to this Miami -4 pick.

Why take Miami?

The injuries

Here come the Jets just like the Ravens a few weeks ago as the walking wounded.

Here is the list of Jets injuries: Carter LB (Out); Clady OL (Quest.); Kellen Davis TD (Out); Giocomini OL (Quest); Darron Lee LB (Out); Mangold C (Doubtful); Qvale OL (Doubtful); Shell OL (Quest); Skrine CB (Limited Practice); Wilkerson DL (Doubt/Quest).

Folks that's FAR too many injuries at too many key positions for a 3-5 team to endure in back to back road games against a conference rival.

Mangold ALONE is a big injury. And let's remember, Fitzpatrick had his head drilled early last week and wasn't all that sharp the rest of the game, at least in terms of optimal expected performance.

Miami will be missing Cameron, Howard, and Sims. Not chopped liver right there but nothing like the bevy of injuries suffered by the Jets.

So right off the bat, the Jets have the "Walking Wounded" moniker.

Advantage: Dolphins

Tannehill vs. Fitz

I know you guys dislike Tannehill but right now is Fitz, a guy who lost his starting job to Geno Smith better? His magic in the Ravens game WILL dissipate at some point and he's not all that sharp anyhow.

Tannehill's performance has been on the uptick the past two games: 15/25 204 1 TD 0 INT vs. Bills and 24/32 252 vs. Steelers.

Pretty damn good...for him.

And here's a bonus, a VERY big bonus:

The Jets have the WORST pass defense in the NFL allowing 289.1 passing yards per game. Opponents have thrown 15 TD's in 8 games against them. Opponents have a 98.6 QBR against the Jets, 27th in the NFL. Opposing QB's are completing 66% of their passes for 23rd in the league.

Is that bad enough? It gets worse.

The Jets give up the explosive play (you know, the one that will get you the cover or get you out to a quick lead). They have allowed 27 pass plays of 20 yards or more. And they are getting worse. Seattle and Cleveland last week both had SIX plays of 20+ passing yards. Cleveland....Cleveland had that...Passes of 71, 72 and 84 yards this year folks. Scary...

Here's what the Jets will do: They will load up the box and use their number 1 rush D to stop/contain the run and dare Tannehill to beat them.

But when you have the worst pass defense, 4 points, playing on the road in the second straight week, basically signaling to Tannehill they will do this (calling him out essentially), it's not a good thing to bet on in the Jets.

We all know of Tannehill's struggles. This game will basically be a statement of Tannehill's career from now until hereafter. If he can't do well against this pass defense, he's essentially done. He knows that. That's a good thing. For my money, I'll take Tannehill in that spot.

And if Tannehill fails?

Revelation at Running Back

Jay Ajay is going for his third consecutive game of 200+ yards. Will he get it? It is likely he won't. But what will he get? 100? 120? 130? Those numbers are paltry compared to what he's gotten the past 2 games and they are still outstanding totals.

The Steelers have an very good Run Defense (8th on that week they played the Fins) and couldn't stop him. The Bills have a poor one and he torched them too.

The Jets have the best one but do we even need 200+ yards to cover this number? No! We don't even know what this kid is yet. His wild card of a performance threatens the Jets number 1 run D and they have the worst pass D. That's a bad spot for the Jets.

Advantage: Dolphins at QB and RB and Pass D.

Next up:

Are the Jets on the upswing?

I say no. Who have they beat?

@Steelers 31-13 Loss (Lifeless performance)

@Cardinals 28-3 Loss (an even more lifeless performance)

Vs. Ravens 24-16 Win (Beat the most injured team in the NFL and needed heroics from Fitz to do it)

@ Browns 31-28 (Beat the worst team in football about to match it's worst start ever at 0-9 and still came an onside kick from disaster)

Now the Jets are playing their whopping FOURTH road game in five weeks, more injured, and playing inadequate competition, perhaps in their own right,  two of the worst teams in the NFL given the injuries and records.

Oh and throw in some blazing 82 degree heat.

Are the Fins on the upswing?

I don't care if you think this is selective thinking because I am picking them: I say yes. They beat DOMINATED the Steelers at home 30-15 and after Rex threw EVERYTHING he had at them early (which he had to do without McCoy) the Fins bore down and prevailed (and covered the -2.5) 28-25.


 
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Posted: #4

On top of that, the locker room is clicking. We now have that psychological edge per reports (and if you don't believe those reports, believe their impressive performances the last two games):

Understand that the Dolphins’ practices during training camp were open to the media. Indeed, they were open to the public. And everyone saw that they sometimes dragged. Sometimes they were ragged.

Coaches and players who had been on successful teams elsewhere grudgingly admit there was something not quite right about those July-August-September sessions. Things just didn’t look or feel precise.

That isn’t the case anymore.

Although all significant parts of practices are closed to all outsiders now, I’m told the workouts lately hum like a V8 engine.

They go faster. There are fewer mistakes. There’s a competitive spirit present.

“You can feel the guys just love to be here, having fun at practice, joking around, clowning around,” receiver Jarvis Landry said. “But at the same time, we want this taste to stay in our mouths. We want to continue to have success and build off of what we’ve done so far.”

The Dolphins believe they have hit a cycle that is something of a sweet spot for NFL teams. They have found success in games so players are working harder in practice to keep that success going. And that leads to more success — which makes practices more fun and more productive …

Which often leads to more success in games.

“All of a sudden, you do get a little bit of confidence, some success … and then your practices get better and your meetings get better and everyone is buying in a little bit more, and you keep improving by inches,” offensive coordinator Clyde Christensen said.

Folks, this is what always plauges the Fins, the lack of cohesion. Now even the worst of the worst is buying in.

Ndamukong Suh has become a major force for good in the locker room.

That wasn’t the case last season. Suh held meetings and tried to show leadership last year but it didn’t translate well. It was obvious Suh didn’t buy in to Joe Philbin as a head coach and Kevin Coyle as a defensive coordinator.

Suh also alienated some teammates. Indeed, very few people in the building liked him.

But there has been an almost 180-degree shift by the team’s highest-paid player this year. Suh and Gase have built something of a relationship. Suh has been trusting the coaching and, indeed, encouraging players to do the same.


Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/armando-salguero/article112748773.html#storylink=cpy

Folks, when Suh is buying in, YOU should buy in. Is the line the -3 from earlier in the week? No. But I feel I justified the extra point about three here. I don't think I need to go on. Do you?

 Dolphins -4.

 
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Posted: #5

Record: 26-11 (>70%)


The pick:


Marshall +9 over Middle Tennessee State


We have lots of angles and they are all intertwined so let's get right to them!

1. The Honoring the Deceased Angle

This is a great one. If you are going to fade this angle, you better be careful.

I capped a game years ago, up, down and into next week and it involved this angle. One problem: The media didn't publicize it to the degree they should have and at kick-off I knew I was dead.

The game was Rutgers -3.5 @ UConn. Rutgers was fighting for a Bowl and UConn was just terrible. Rutgers was superior in the passing game/run game and defensively. It should have covered.

One problem: UConn was honoring Sandy Hook victims in that game. They won outright.

So we won't fade this angle, we'll utilize it!

Marshall is honoring it's 1971 football team the team that came after the 1970 team. That 1970 team had 75 people (players and staff) die in the worst sports accident of all time.

Typically players wear a patch or a decal.

Folks, as a tribute and a very poignant one, the 75, which again, represents 75 lost lives, will be emblazoned in giant numbers on the back of Marshall's helmets. The helmets will also be throwbacks to the exact ones worn by that team.

You can how they will look here:

 [link from unapproved source]

This is very powerful. They are actually honoring the 1971 team which is the team Marshall used to rebuild their program but the 75 carries all the meaning of why they were rebuilding.

Not to lose the psychological angle here, that 1971 team had the greatest win in program history over Xavier (I wonder who they were honoring that year????).

[link from unapproved source]

They didn't need points in that game folks. They beat Xavier straight up. They made a movie about it called we are Marshall in 2006.

That started a coinciding "We are Marshall" anniversary of which this is the special 10th.

So we have the 45th anniversary of the 1971 team honoring the 1970 team crash victims tied into the We are Marshall 10th Anniversary.

There's a lot going on at Marshall tomorrow folks. Lots of psychological motivations. If you can't win when you are honoring the deceased, when can you?

But there is more:

2. Middle Tennessee State just lost it's star QB Brent StockStill

The kid is an absolute stud. And now he is gone. Good for Marshall backers no?

27 TD's 5Int's and 2800 yards.

Look at the game log:

[link from unapproved source]

 
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Posted: #6

Record: 26-11 (>70%)


The pick:


Marshall +9 over Middle Tennessee State


We have lots of angles and they are all intertwined so let's get right to them!

1. The Honoring the Deceased Angle

This is a great one. If you are going to fade this angle, you better be careful.

I capped a game years ago, up, down and into next week and it involved this angle. One problem: The media didn't publicize it to the degree they should have and at kick-off I knew I was dead.

The game was Rutgers -3.5 @ UConn. Rutgers was fighting for a Bowl and UConn was just terrible. Rutgers was superior in the passing game/run game and defensively. It should have covered.

One problem: UConn was honoring Sandy Hook victims in that game. They won outright.

So we won't fade this angle, we'll utilize it!

Marshall is honoring it's 1971 football team the team that came after the 1970 team. That 1970 team had 75 people (players and staff) die in the worst sports accident of all time.

Typically players wear a patch or a decal.

Folks, as a tribute and a very poignant one, the 75, which again, represents 75 lost lives, will be emblazoned in giant numbers on the back of Marshall's helmets. The helmets will also be throwbacks to the exact ones worn by that team.

You can how they will look here:

 [link from unapproved source]

This is very powerful. They are actually honoring the 1971 team which is the team Marshall used to rebuild their program but the 75 carries all the meaning of why they were rebuilding.

Not to lose the psychological angle here, that 1971 team had the greatest win in program history over Xavier (I wonder who they were honoring that year????).

[link from unapproved source]

They didn't need points in that game folks. They beat Xavier straight up. They made a movie about it called we are Marshall in 2006.

That started a coinciding "We are Marshall" anniversary of which this is the special 10th.

So we have the 45th anniversary of the 1971 team honoring the 1970 team crash victims tied into the We are Marshall 10th Anniversary.

There's a lot going on at Marshall tomorrow folks. Lots of psychological motivations. If you can't win when you are honoring the deceased, when can you?

But there is more:

2. Middle Tennessee State just lost it's star QB Brent StockStill

The kid is an absolute stud. And now he is gone. Good for Marshall backers no?

27 TD's 5Int's and 2800 yards.

Look at the game log:

[link from unapproved source]

Sensational. And it's gone.

His backup is John Urzua. This 19 year kid has started ZERO college games.

I would say this is Star Player Out Other Players Step Up angle but StockStill was so incredible it is too tough to play up that angle.

In addition Urzua came in in the second quarter against UTEP and went 14 for 27 for 161 with THREE INTs and one lost fumble. They fell at home 45-25 to an unremarkable UTEP team.

But there is a deeper layer here too. It affects the head coach.

Stockstill's father IS the head coach. This is how he reacted to the the news his son will have screws and plates in his broken collarbone:

“He asked the doctors, ‘Can I go back and play?’” Rick Stockstill said. “They said, ‘No, it could kill you. The bones could puncture something.’ He asked, ‘Has anybody ever played with it?’ They said, ‘No.’ He said, ‘Well, can I be the first?’ “I think that shows the toughness and competitiveness, the leadership and love he has for this team. He is going to be missed.”

Oh, he's going to be missed alright.


But there is more:

3. Marshall is playing terrible

Do you remember I kept talking about Rutgers vs. Minnesota while RU was on a 17 game losing streak.

Losing streaks are GREAT motivators because they cause a team to break out of a slump in a BIG way. But the key is knowing when that will happen.

When you are honoring the deceased and the other team has their superstar out AND you are playing at home AND you are in this miserable season where you want a win, any win, to regain some confidence, if this is not the game to win, what is?

Marshall is so bad this year they lost to CHARLOTTE, at HOME. That's bad folks. But when you are bad to the bone, you just have to know when that bone will break. And with all this on a silver platter, I think Marshall is ready to break out of this funk.

I want to be clear. Middle Tennessee has a great running game. in fact they have two great backs. BUT their game plan, to RUN, is already evident with the change beneath center. They have weapons at wide receiver too. This team can score. That is why with all the above we are still getting 9 here.

But when a team is playing as poorly as Marshall is, you have to look for the opportune time to nail them with a big spread. We get that here and we are at home.

 
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Posted: #7

2016 Record: 31-13 (>70%)

This ones for all the trolls who incessantly whine and complain and harp on one loss while winner after winner gets posted in thread after thread.

Trolls are a unique bunch. They are one and the same.

They are much like a glass of water poured into an ocean. While the glass of water may be unique, after you pour it, it assimilates into the whole.

So the same trolls that ran League Capper off this site and so many others (and even MrBator who likely, in part, didn't want to put up with them), are not the same ones you see today.

But they function the same. The attacks are very much the same.

And they all do the same thing. They want to attack that good cappers. They want to criticize them with unsubstantiated claims (i.e., you faked your record! is a famous one, but is never researched by the troll making the accusation).

But really, at the heart of trolling, is that you aren't within the confines of their "Capping humility code".

You can win. You can post and win a ton. But DON'T get to high and mighty. They will be the arbiters of what that level of alleged arrogance is and THEY will keep it in check. They are the gatekeepers in this regard.

And they gatekeep because they do not want your status superseding theirs. Because their masculinity is threated. This is quite common among men with low self-worth but more importantly, athletes.

Hyper-masculinity leads to altercations, first verbal and physical and then even war. Thousands, and even millions of lives can be lost to appeal to this hyper-masculine mindset. 

And it is right here on covers. When someone gets too confident?The gatekeepers will knock them down a notch.

But their is a panacea to this. Winning. When you win, they have no ammo. You have essentially emptied their oozy and they stand useless in the face of their complaint. So that is what we will do. We will win.

And this lead-in about trolls leads us to our pick, and the primary focus of this game.

The pick:

ARKANSAS -8 over Missouri 

 
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Posts: 28199
Posted: #8

2016 Record: 31-13 (>70%)

This ones for all the trolls who incessantly whine and complain and harp on one loss while winner after winner gets posted in thread after thread.

Trolls are a unique bunch. They are one and the same.

They are much like a glass of water poured into an ocean. While the glass of water may be unique, after you pour it, it assimilates into the whole.

So the same trolls that ran League Capper off this site and so many others (and even MrBator who likely, in part, didn't want to put up with them), are not the same ones you see today.

But they function the same. The attacks are very much the same.

And they all do the same thing. They want to attack that good cappers. They want to criticize them with unsubstantiated claims (i.e., you faked your record! is a famous one, but is never researched by the troll making the accusation).

But really, at the heart of trolling, is that you aren't within the confines of their "Capping humility code".

You can win. You can post and win a ton. But DON'T get to high and mighty. They will be the arbiters of what that level of alleged arrogance is and THEY will keep it in check. They are the gatekeepers in this regard.

And they gatekeepers because they do not want your status superseding theirs. Because their masculinity is threated. This is quite common among men with low self-worth but more importantly, athletes.

Hyper-masculinity leads to altercations, first verbal and physical and then even war. Thousands, and even millions of lives can be lost to appeal to this hyper-masculine mindset. 

And it is right here on covers. When someone gets too confident?The gatekeepers will knock them down a notch.

But their is a panacea to this. Winning. When you win, they have no ammo. You have essentially emptied their oozy and they stand useless in the face of their complaint. So that is what we will do. We will win.

And this lead-in about trolls leads us to our pick, and the primary focus of this game.

The pick:

ARKANSAS -8 over Missouri 

Let's look at what is going on off the field before we look at what is going on, on the field to solidify this play.

Imagine if I told you Arkansas opened at -7.5 and you didn't know any of the following. None of it. Think about how you may have played Ark -7.5 anyway, just given what Mizzou is this year (a total dumpster fire) without what I'm about to tell you, and think about how you could possibly play Missouri under any circumstances after hearing this.

1.

 
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Posts: 28199
Posted: #9

2016 Record: 31-13 (>70%)

This ones for all the trolls who incessantly whine and complain and harp on one loss while winner after winner gets posted in thread after thread.

Trolls are a unique bunch. They are one and the same.

They are much like a glass of water poured into an ocean. While the glass of water may be unique, after you pour it, it assimilates into the whole.

So the same trolls that ran League Capper off this site and so many others (and even MrBator who likely, in part, didn't want to put up with them), are not the same ones you see today.

But they function the same. The attacks are very much the same.

And they all do the same thing. They want to attack that good cappers. They want to criticize them with unsubstantiated claims (i.e., you faked your record! is a famous one, but is never researched by the troll making the accusation).

But really, at the heart of trolling, is that you aren't within the confines of their "Capping humility code".

You can win. You can post and win a ton. But DON'T get to high and mighty. They will be the arbiters of what that level of alleged arrogance is and THEY will keep it in check. They are the gatekeepers in this regard.

And they gatekeepers because they do not want your status superseding theirs. Because their masculinity is threated. This is quite common among men with low self-worth but more importantly, athletes.

Hyper-masculinity leads to altercations, first verbal and physical and then even war. Thousands, and even millions of lives can be lost to appeal to this hyper-masculine mindset. 

And it is right here on covers. When someone gets too confident?The gatekeepers will knock them down a notch.

But their is a panacea to this. Winning. When you win, they have no ammo. You have essentially emptied their oozy and they stand useless in the face of their complaint. So that is what we will do. We will win.

And this lead-in about trolls leads us to our pick, and the primary focus of this game.

The pick:

ARKANSAS -8 over Missouri 

Let's look at what is going on off the field before we look at what is going on, on the field to solidify this play.

Imagine if I told you Arkansas opened at -7.5 and you didn't know any of the following. None of it. Think about how you may have played Ark -7.5 anyway, just given what Mizzou is this year (a total dumpster fire) without what I'm about to tell you, and think about how you could possibly play Missouri under any circumstances after hearing this.

1. The Ultimate Bulletin Board Material

Let's just get right to it. You want the team you are backing by what an opposing player said? You got it right here. And it's golden.

Missouri Linebacker (a defense that gave up SIXTY THREE to Tennessee last week) said the following:

Beisel intentionally mispronounced "Arkansas" as "Ar-kansas" three times. The St. Louis native said he was pulling a hoax and stringing the Razorbacks along in the recruiting process back in high school.

"Whether they decide to get on a plane and show up at our stadium on Friday, that's their call," Beisel told reporters, according to the Columbia Daily Tribune. "I'll tell you what, if they do decide to come, it's going to be hectic. Our fans are going to bring it, and we're going to bring it. It'd be a mistake, showing up in Columbia, Missouri.

"We're going to take some aggression out on Ar-kansas this Friday, this Black Friday. It's going to be a black-out game. They're not going to see what's coming. If they do decide to show up, like I said, it'll be a huge mistake.”

Beisel intentionally mispronounced "Arkansas" as "Ar-kansas" three times. The St. Louis native also said he was pulling a hoax and stringing the Razorbacks along in the recruiting process back in high school.

This team is 3-7. This team just gave up 600+ yards the previous week. This team is dead last in the SEC in total defense and he said that.

If a player from Alabama said this, it would catch my eye and I'd look to take the points. Here? I'll lay every point after hearing this given I'd be considering Ark anyway on this play. Of course, there are other reasons for the cap itself but this is an incredible motivator for Arkansas.

These comments were so inflammatory, HC Barry Odom had to have Beisel personally apologize for them (likely because of a potential on the field scuffle.)

Have the Arkansas players forgiven these comments after the apology? Not only haven't they, they have openly said Beilema has addressed them in the locker room, as in, "let your play do the talking on Friday."

And we have video of what the players think.

 
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Joined: Sep, 2006
Posts: 28199
Posted: #10

2016 Record: 31-13 (>70%)

This ones for all the trolls who incessantly whine and complain and harp on one loss while winner after winner gets posted in thread after thread.

Trolls are a unique bunch. They are one and the same.

They are much like a glass of water poured into an ocean. While the glass of water may be unique, after you pour it, it assimilates into the whole.

So the same trolls that ran League Capper off this site and so many others (and even MrBator who likely, in part, didn't want to put up with them), are not the same ones you see today.

But they function the same. The attacks are very much the same.

And they all do the same thing. They want to attack that good cappers. They want to criticize them with unsubstantiated claims (i.e., you faked your record! is a famous one, but is never researched by the troll making the accusation).

But really, at the heart of trolling, is that you aren't within the confines of their "Capping humility code".

You can win. You can post and win a ton. But DON'T get to high and mighty. They will be the arbiters of what that level of alleged arrogance is and THEY will keep it in check. They are the gatekeepers in this regard.

And they gatekeepers because they do not want your status superseding theirs. Because their masculinity is threated. This is quite common among men with low self-worth but more importantly, athletes.

Hyper-masculinity leads to altercations, first verbal and physical and then even war. Thousands, and even millions of lives can be lost to appeal to this hyper-masculine mindset. 

And it is right here on covers. When someone gets too confident?The gatekeepers will knock them down a notch.

But their is a panacea to this. Winning. When you win, they have no ammo. You have essentially emptied their oozy and they stand useless in the face of their complaint. So that is what we will do. We will win.

And this lead-in about trolls leads us to our pick, and the primary focus of this game.

The pick:

ARKANSAS -8 over Missouri 

Let's look at what is going on off the field before we look at what is going on, on the field to solidify this play.

Imagine if I told you Arkansas opened at -7.5 and you didn't know any of the following. None of it. Think about how you may have played Ark -7.5 anyway, just given what Mizzou is this year (a total dumpster fire) without what I'm about to tell you, and think about how you could possibly play Missouri under any circumstances after hearing this.

1. The Ultimate Bulletin Board Material

Let's just get right to it. You want the team you are backing by what an opposing player said? You got it right here. And it's golden.

Missouri Linebacker (a defense that gave up SIXTY THREE to Tennessee last week) said the following:

Beisel intentionally mispronounced "Arkansas" as "Ar-kansas" three times. The St. Louis native said he was pulling a hoax and stringing the Razorbacks along in the recruiting process back in high school.

"Whether they decide to get on a plane and show up at our stadium on Friday, that's their call," Beisel told reporters, according to the Columbia Daily Tribune. "I'll tell you what, if they do decide to come, it's going to be hectic. Our fans are going to bring it, and we're going to bring it. It'd be a mistake, showing up in Columbia, Missouri.

"We're going to take some aggression out on Ar-kansas this Friday, this Black Friday. It's going to be a black-out game. They're not going to see what's coming. If they do decide to show up, like I said, it'll be a huge mistake.”

Beisel intentionally mispronounced "Arkansas" as "Ar-kansas" three times. The St. Louis native also said he was pulling a hoax and stringing the Razorbacks along in the recruiting process back in high school.

This team is 3-7. This team just gave up 600+ yards the previous week. This team is dead last in the SEC in total defense and he said that.

If a player from Alabama said this, it would catch my eye and I'd look to take the points. Here? I'll lay every point after hearing this given I'd be considering Ark anyway on this play. Of course, there are other reasons for the cap itself but this is an incredible motivator for Arkansas.

These comments were so inflammatory, HC Barry Odom had to have Beisel personally apologize for them (likely because of a potential on the field scuffle.)

Have the Arkansas players forgiven these comments after the apology? Not only haven't they, they have openly said Beilema has addressed them in the locker room, as in, "let your play do the talking on Friday."

And we have video of what the players think.

Want to hear how the players are treating this? The first two are benign and then you see how the players are taking this. I suggest you pop this into your browser and see it for yourself. It's your money, and needless to say, it's not pretty if you already locked a bet in on Missouri.

[link from unapproved source]

Now let's look at what's on the field:

2. Missouri is fractured, inept, and spiraling out of control.

This defense was good last year. They brought in Drew Lock at QB, a true freshman, after Mauk was dismissed,  to give him the growing pains needed to survive this season.

They held Georgia to 9 last year in a loss. BYU 16 in a victory. Tennessee beat them 19-8. Teams didn't score on them.

When you laid points to Mizzou you had to be careful. They came to play on D and their D kept them in it.

Fast forward to this year:

63 to Tennessee as noted

31 to a South Carolina team that can't score on anyone. For comparison South Carolina only put up 34 on UMass at home!

51 to Middle Tennessee State AT HOME

40 to Florida, another team that has big problem putting points on the board

 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2006
Posts: 28199
Posted: #11

2016 Record: 31-13 (>70%)

This ones for all the trolls who incessantly whine and complain and harp on one loss while winner after winner gets posted in thread after thread.

Trolls are a unique bunch. They are one and the same.

They are much like a glass of water poured into an ocean. While the glass of water may be unique, after you pour it, it assimilates into the whole.

So the same trolls that ran League Capper off this site and so many others (and even MrBator who likely, in part, didn't want to put up with them), are not the same ones you see today.

But they function the same. The attacks are very much the same.

And they all do the same thing. They want to attack that good cappers. They want to criticize them with unsubstantiated claims (i.e., you faked your record! is a famous one, but is never researched by the troll making the accusation).

But really, at the heart of trolling, is that you aren't within the confines of their "Capping humility code".

You can win. You can post and win a ton. But DON'T get to high and mighty. They will be the arbiters of what that level of alleged arrogance is and THEY will keep it in check. They are the gatekeepers in this regard.

And they gatekeepers because they do not want your status superseding theirs. Because their masculinity is threated. This is quite common among men with low self-worth but more importantly, athletes.

Hyper-masculinity leads to altercations, first verbal and physical and then even war. Thousands, and even millions of lives can be lost to appeal to this hyper-masculine mindset. 

And it is right here on covers. When someone gets too confident?The gatekeepers will knock them down a notch.

But their is a panacea to this. Winning. When you win, they have no ammo. You have essentially emptied their oozy and they stand useless in the face of their complaint. So that is what we will do. We will win.

And this lead-in about trolls leads us to our pick, and the primary focus of this game.

The pick:

ARKANSAS -8 over Missouri 

Let's look at what is going on off the field before we look at what is going on, on the field to solidify this play.

Imagine if I told you Arkansas opened at -7.5 and you didn't know any of the following. None of it. Think about how you may have played Ark -7.5 anyway, just given what Mizzou is this year (a total dumpster fire) without what I'm about to tell you, and think about how you could possibly play Missouri under any circumstances after hearing this.

1. The Ultimate Bulletin Board Material

Let's just get right to it. You want the team you are backing by what an opposing player said? You got it right here. And it's golden.

Missouri Linebacker (a defense that gave up SIXTY THREE to Tennessee last week) said the following:

Beisel intentionally mispronounced "Arkansas" as "Ar-kansas" three times. The St. Louis native said he was pulling a hoax and stringing the Razorbacks along in the recruiting process back in high school.

"Whether they decide to get on a plane and show up at our stadium on Friday, that's their call," Beisel told reporters, according to the Columbia Daily Tribune. "I'll tell you what, if they do decide to come, it's going to be hectic. Our fans are going to bring it, and we're going to bring it. It'd be a mistake, showing up in Columbia, Missouri.

"We're going to take some aggression out on Ar-kansas this Friday, this Black Friday. It's going to be a black-out game. They're not going to see what's coming. If they do decide to show up, like I said, it'll be a huge mistake.”

Beisel intentionally mispronounced "Arkansas" as "Ar-kansas" three times. The St. Louis native also said he was pulling a hoax and stringing the Razorbacks along in the recruiting process back in high school.

This team is 3-7. This team just gave up 600+ yards the previous week. This team is dead last in the SEC in total defense and he said that.

If a player from Alabama said this, it would catch my eye and I'd look to take the points. Here? I'll lay every point after hearing this given I'd be considering Ark anyway on this play. Of course, there are other reasons for the cap itself but this is an incredible motivator for Arkansas.

These comments were so inflammatory, HC Barry Odom had to have Beisel personally apologize for them (likely because of a potential on the field scuffle.)

Have the Arkansas players forgiven these comments after the apology? Not only haven't they, they have openly said Beilema has addressed them in the locker room, as in, "let your play do the talking on Friday."

And we have video of what the players think.

Want to hear how the players are treating this? The first two are benign and then you see how the players are taking this. I suggest you pop this into your browser and see it for yourself. It's your money, and needless to say, it's not pretty if you already locked a bet in on Missouri.

[link from unapproved source]

Now how, after this, if you knew nothing about this game, do you say "I like Missouri with the points here!"

Now let's look at what's on the field:

2. Missouri is fractured, inept, and spiraling out of control.

This defense was good last year. They brought in Drew Lock at QB, a true freshman, after Mauk was dismissed,  to give him the growing pains needed to survive this season.

They held Georgia to 9 last year in a loss. BYU 16 in a victory. Tennessee beat them 19-8. Teams didn't score on them.

When you laid points to Mizzou you had to be careful. They came to play on D and their D kept them in it.

Fast forward to this year:

63 to Tennessee as noted

31 to a South Carolina team that can't score on anyone. For comparison South Carolina only put up 34 on UMass at home!

51 to Middle Tennessee State AT HOME

40 to Florida, another team that has big problem putting points on the board

I could give you a lot of numbers about their offense and defense. They are terrible. But the fact is, Drew Lock, their guy who lost all those games at the end of last year simply hasn't progressed as they expected. He is a compiler. Two 5 TD games have come against Deleware State and Eastern Michigan. 10 TD's against an FCS team (and a bad one at that) and what is a near FCS team. That really bolsters his numbers. While these numbers still have gone up the past 3 games, they simply aren't good enough to cover here with 4TD's and 4 INT's in the past 3 games.

And Lock is going to be in trouble because of the following.

3.

 
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Joined: Sep, 2006
Posts: 28199
Posted: #12

2016 Record: 31-13 (>70%)

This ones for all the trolls who incessantly whine and complain and harp on one loss while winner after winner gets posted in thread after thread.

Trolls are a unique bunch. They are one and the same.

They are much like a glass of water poured into an ocean. While the glass of water may be unique, after you pour it, it assimilates into the whole.

So the same trolls that ran League Capper off this site and so many others (and even MrBator who likely, in part, didn't want to put up with them), are not the same ones you see today.

But they function the same. The attacks are very much the same.

And they all do the same thing. They want to attack that good cappers. They want to criticize them with unsubstantiated claims (i.e., you faked your record! is a famous one, but is never researched by the troll making the accusation).

But really, at the heart of trolling, is that you aren't within the confines of their "Capping humility code".

You can win. You can post and win a ton. But DON'T get to high and mighty. They will be the arbiters of what that level of alleged arrogance is and THEY will keep it in check. They are the gatekeepers in this regard.

And they gatekeepers because they do not want your status superseding theirs. Because their masculinity is threated. This is quite common among men with low self-worth but more importantly, athletes.

Hyper-masculinity leads to altercations, first verbal and physical and then even war. Thousands, and even millions of lives can be lost to appeal to this hyper-masculine mindset. 

And it is right here on covers. When someone gets too confident?The gatekeepers will knock them down a notch.

But their is a panacea to this. Winning. When you win, they have no ammo. You have essentially emptied their oozy and they stand useless in the face of their complaint. So that is what we will do. We will win.

And this lead-in about trolls leads us to our pick, and the primary focus of this game.

The pick:

ARKANSAS -8 over Missouri 

Let's look at what is going on off the field before we look at what is going on, on the field to solidify this play.

Imagine if I told you Arkansas opened at -7.5 and you didn't know any of the following. None of it. Think about how you may have played Ark -7.5 anyway, just given what Mizzou is this year (a total dumpster fire) without what I'm about to tell you, and think about how you could possibly play Missouri under any circumstances after hearing this.

1. The Ultimate Bulletin Board Material

Let's just get right to it. You want the team you are backing by what an opposing player said? You got it right here. And it's golden.

Missouri Linebacker (a defense that gave up SIXTY THREE to Tennessee last week) said the following:

Beisel intentionally mispronounced "Arkansas" as "Ar-kansas" three times. The St. Louis native said he was pulling a hoax and stringing the Razorbacks along in the recruiting process back in high school.

"Whether they decide to get on a plane and show up at our stadium on Friday, that's their call," Beisel told reporters, according to the Columbia Daily Tribune. "I'll tell you what, if they do decide to come, it's going to be hectic. Our fans are going to bring it, and we're going to bring it. It'd be a mistake, showing up in Columbia, Missouri.

"We're going to take some aggression out on Ar-kansas this Friday, this Black Friday. It's going to be a black-out game. They're not going to see what's coming. If they do decide to show up, like I said, it'll be a huge mistake.”

Beisel intentionally mispronounced "Arkansas" as "Ar-kansas" three times. The St. Louis native also said he was pulling a hoax and stringing the Razorbacks along in the recruiting process back in high school.

This team is 3-7. This team just gave up 600+ yards the previous week. This team is dead last in the SEC in total defense and he said that.

If a player from Alabama said this, it would catch my eye and I'd look to take the points. Here? I'll lay every point after hearing this given I'd be considering Ark anyway on this play. Of course, there are other reasons for the cap itself but this is an incredible motivator for Arkansas.

These comments were so inflammatory, HC Barry Odom had to have Beisel personally apologize for them (likely because of a potential on the field scuffle.)

Have the Arkansas players forgiven these comments after the apology? Not only haven't they, they have openly said Beilema has addressed them in the locker room, as in, "let your play do the talking on Friday."

And we have video of what the players think.

Want to hear how the players are treating this? The first two are benign and then you see how the players are taking this. I suggest you pop this into your browser and see it for yourself. It's your money, and needless to say, it's not pretty if you already locked a bet in on Missouri.

[link from unapproved source]

Now how, after this, if you knew nothing about this game, do you say "I like Missouri with the points here!"

Now let's look at what's on the field:

2. Missouri is fractured, inept, and spiraling out of control.

This defense was good last year. They brought in Drew Lock at QB, a true freshman, after Mauk was dismissed,  to give him the growing pains needed to survive this season.

They held Georgia to 9 last year in a loss. BYU 16 in a victory. Tennessee beat them 19-8. Teams didn't score on them.

When you laid points to Mizzou you had to be careful. They came to play on D and their D kept them in it.

Fast forward to this year:

63 to Tennessee as noted

31 to a South Carolina team that can't score on anyone. For comparison South Carolina only put up 34 on UMass at home!

51 to Middle Tennessee State AT HOME

40 to Florida, another team that has big problem putting points on the board

I could give you a lot of numbers about their offense and defense. They are terrible. But the fact is, Drew Lock, their guy who lost all those games at the end of last year simply hasn't progressed as they expected. He is a compiler. Two 5 TD games have come against Deleware State and Eastern Michigan. 10 TD's against an FCS team (and a bad one at that) and what is a near FCS team. That really bolsters his numbers. While these numbers still have gone up the past 3 games, they simply aren't good enough to cover here with 4TD's and 4 INT's in the past 3 games. The pundits will say he ranks first among SEC QB's. Folks, WATCH HIM PLAY. He's a compiler. Makes bad decisions. Is still very green and hasn't lead this team to one victory against a team of worth in any start in his career.


 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2006
Posts: 28199
Posted: #13

2016 Record: 31-13 (>70%)

This ones for all the trolls who incessantly whine and complain and harp on one loss while winner after winner gets posted in thread after thread.

Trolls are a unique bunch. They are one and the same.

They are much like a glass of water poured into an ocean. While the glass of water may be unique, after you pour it, it assimilates into the whole.

So the same trolls that ran League Capper off this site and so many others (and even MrBator who likely, in part, didn't want to put up with them), are not the same ones you see today.

But they function the same. The attacks are very much the same.

And they all do the same thing. They want to attack that good cappers. They want to criticize them with unsubstantiated claims (i.e., you faked your record! is a famous one, but is never researched by the troll making the accusation).

But really, at the heart of trolling, is that you aren't within the confines of their "Capping humility code".

You can win. You can post and win a ton. But DON'T get to high and mighty. They will be the arbiters of what that level of alleged arrogance is and THEY will keep it in check. They are the gatekeepers in this regard.

And they gatekeepers because they do not want your status superseding theirs. Because their masculinity is threated. This is quite common among men with low self-worth but more importantly, athletes.

Hyper-masculinity leads to altercations, first verbal and physical and then even war. Thousands, and even millions of lives can be lost to appeal to this hyper-masculine mindset. 

And it is right here on covers. When someone gets too confident?The gatekeepers will knock them down a notch.

But their is a panacea to this. Winning. When you win, they have no ammo. You have essentially emptied their oozy and they stand useless in the face of their complaint. So that is what we will do. We will win.

And this lead-in about trolls leads us to our pick, and the primary focus of this game.

The pick:

ARKANSAS -8 over Missouri 

Let's look at what is going on off the field before we look at what is going on, on the field to solidify this play.

Imagine if I told you Arkansas opened at -7.5 and you didn't know any of the following. None of it. Think about how you may have played Ark -7.5 anyway, just given what Mizzou is this year (a total dumpster fire) without what I'm about to tell you, and think about how you could possibly play Missouri under any circumstances after hearing this.

1. The Ultimate Bulletin Board Material

Let's just get right to it. You want the team you are backing by what an opposing player said? You got it right here. And it's golden.

Missouri Linebacker (a defense that gave up SIXTY THREE to Tennessee last week) said the following:

Beisel intentionally mispronounced "Arkansas" as "Ar-kansas" three times. The St. Louis native said he was pulling a hoax and stringing the Razorbacks along in the recruiting process back in high school.

"Whether they decide to get on a plane and show up at our stadium on Friday, that's their call," Beisel told reporters, according to the Columbia Daily Tribune. "I'll tell you what, if they do decide to come, it's going to be hectic. Our fans are going to bring it, and we're going to bring it. It'd be a mistake, showing up in Columbia, Missouri.

"We're going to take some aggression out on Ar-kansas this Friday, this Black Friday. It's going to be a black-out game. They're not going to see what's coming. If they do decide to show up, like I said, it'll be a huge mistake.”

Beisel intentionally mispronounced "Arkansas" as "Ar-kansas" three times. The St. Louis native also said he was pulling a hoax and stringing the Razorbacks along in the recruiting process back in high school.

This team is 3-7. This team just gave up 600+ yards the previous week. This team is dead last in the SEC in total defense and he said that.

If a player from Alabama said this, it would catch my eye and I'd look to take the points. Here? I'll lay every point after hearing this given I'd be considering Ark anyway on this play. Of course, there are other reasons for the cap itself but this is an incredible motivator for Arkansas.

These comments were so inflammatory, HC Barry Odom had to have Beisel personally apologize for them (likely because of a potential on the field scuffle.)

Have the Arkansas players forgiven these comments after the apology? Not only haven't they, they have openly said Beilema has addressed them in the locker room, as in, "let your play do the talking on Friday."

And we have video of what the players think.

Want to hear how the players are treating this? The first two are benign and then you see how the players are taking this. I suggest you pop this into your browser and see it for yourself. It's your money, and needless to say, it's not pretty if you already locked a bet in on Missouri.

[link from unapproved source]

Now how, after this, if you knew nothing about this game, do you say "I like Missouri with the points here!"

Now let's look at what's on the field:

2. Missouri is fractured, inept, and spiraling out of control on defense and is it's offense won't be able to pick up the slack.

This defense was good last year. They brought in Drew Lock at QB, a true freshman, after Mauk was dismissed,  to give him the growing pains needed to survive this season.

They held Georgia to 9 last year in a loss. BYU 16 in a victory. Tennessee beat them 19-8. Teams didn't score on them.

When you laid points to Mizzou you had to be careful. They came to play on D and their D kept them in it.

Fast forward to this year:

63 to Tennessee as noted

31 to a South Carolina team that can't score on anyone. For comparison South Carolina only put up 34 on UMass at home!

51 to Middle Tennessee State AT HOME

40 to Florida, another team that has big problem putting points on the board

I could give you a lot of numbers about their offense and defense. They are terrible. But the fact is, Drew Lock, their guy who lost all those games at the end of last year simply hasn't progressed as they expected. He is a compiler. Two 5 TD games have come against Deleware State and Eastern Michigan. 10 TD's against an FCS team (and a bad one at that) and what is a near FCS team. That really bolsters his numbers. While these numbers still have gone up the past 3 games, they simply aren't good enough to cover here with 4TD's and 4 INT's in the past 3 games. The pundits will say he ranks first among SEC QB's. Folks, WATCH HIM PLAY. He's a compiler. Makes bad decisions. Is still very green and hasn't lead this team to one victory against a team of worth in any start in his career.

And Lock is going to be in trouble because of the following.

This is what was said the last game:

During a Monday news conference, Tigers coach Barry Odom revealed quarterback Drew Lock isn’t fully healthy heading into Saturday’s game. However, the sophomore is slated to play as of now.

Nothing was disclosed as to why Odom said this but he never addressed it afterwards and we still don't know if he is 100%.


 
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Joined: Sep, 2006
Posts: 28199
Posted: #14

And I'd want him at 100% after hearing this:


3. RB Demarea Crockett was suspended for the season finale after an arrest.

I posted this earlier in the week. He set a Missouri rookie rushing record with 225 yards against Tennessee and the Volunteers still beat them 63-37. Now take those 225 yards away and think about what the score would have been. Well we are taking them away here.

Crockett has eclipsed 100 yards in five games, including four times in the past six games. Crockett flipped his commitment from Boise State to Missouri late in the recruiting process, and his performance had been a bright spot in an otherwise bleak season for Missouri.

Following Saturday’s game, Crockett expressed excitement for the game against Arkansas, which didn’t recruit him.

“Let’s go. Let’s do it. Bring it on,” Crockett said of the Black Friday rivalry game.

Think about what a boon to Missouri he could have been here. Now? Gone. All gone.

4. Bizarro Line Movement

Now for the kicker. I get push notifications of CFB news on my phone. I knew about the exact moment Crockett was suspended. I checked the line on 5Dimes. The line was -9 Missouri before the markets could react.

I checked 3 hours later. Amazingly, the line had returned to the opening line of -7.5 after he was suspended!

Someone was pouring money in on the Mizzou side AFTER Crockett was suspended! And this is with an offense that again, has problems and a defense that is downright embarrassing at times.

And the line has only moved a mere .5 pt to -8 after the comments in Bullet #1 above! Reallllly.....

So a win here will be a win against the alleged "Vegas Knows" theory which I love to fade. Why? Because if you cap a game completely YOU know more than Vegas. End of story. 

But there is even more.

4. This team still hasn't overcome it's internal turmoil from last year.

A short but relevant point. There were major protests on the Missouri campus that divided this team. So intense were they, the University President resigned due to them.

You all know where I stand on them but that is not the point of this cap.

When it comes to capping this team, the fallout of last year has carried over to this year and still lingers in the locker room, among the coaching staff, and among a divided fan base.

That fan base has not supported this team as ardently as last year in part, because they are terrible and also in part, because of their views about the protests. And this is a home game for Mizzou. That certainly waters down the home field advantage.

But there is even more.

5. Missouri has an NCAA investigation looming and it could extend to this football team.

Short and sweet: A tutor came out today and said she took ENTIRE COURSES for student-athletes.

What is the FIRST team you would say she took them for if asked? Yes, the football team.

The NCAA has said it will now investigate.

Now think about this: There could be some star Missouri players who heard this news broke today who may have their career ended or be subject to major suspensions.

This is conjecture since this news just broke but how in the hell will those players, if involved, give 100% in this game which means NOTHING to this team.

This game is COMPLETELY MEANINGLESS in a lost season. Senior Day? Whatever. This team has been a black scar on the University this year with it's performance. This was once a proud over-achieving team. No more.

I can now talk about how much Arkansas has to offer on the other side of the ball. I can give you stats. I can impress you. They are not all-world but they will drop a TON of points on you and now you have motivated them beyond belief. But do you really need any of this after reading the above.

A TROLL-SMASHER Special. Just for you.

 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2006
Posts: 28199
Posted: #15

2016 Record: 31-13 (>70%)

This ones for all the trolls who incessantly whine and complain and harp on one loss while winner after winner gets posted in thread after thread.

Trolls are a unique bunch. They are one and the same.

They are much like a glass of water poured into an ocean. While the glass of water may be unique, after you pour it, it assimilates into the whole.

So the same trolls that ran League Capper off this site and so many others (and even MrBator who likely, in part, didn't want to put up with them), are not the same ones you see today.

But they function the same. The attacks are very much the same.

And they all do the same thing. They want to attack that good cappers. They want to criticize them with unsubstantiated claims (i.e., you faked your record! is a famous one, but is never researched by the troll making the accusation).

But really, at the heart of trolling, is that you aren't within the confines of their "Capping humility code".

You can win. You can post and win a ton. But DON'T get to high and mighty. They will be the arbiters of what that level of alleged arrogance is and THEY will keep it in check. They are the gatekeepers in this regard.

And they gatekeepers because they do not want your status superseding theirs. Because their masculinity is threated. This is quite common among men with low self-worth but more importantly, athletes.

Hyper-masculinity leads to altercations, first verbal and physical and then even war. Thousands, and even millions of lives can be lost to appeal to this hyper-masculine mindset. 

And it is right here on covers. When someone gets too confident?The gatekeepers will knock them down a notch.

But their is a panacea to this. Winning. When you win, they have no ammo. You have essentially emptied their oozy and they stand useless in the face of their complaint. So that is what we will do. We will win.

And this lead-in about trolls leads us to our pick, and the primary focus of this game.

The pick:

ARKANSAS -8 over Missouri 

Let's look at what is going on off the field before we look at what is going on, on the field to solidify this play.

Imagine if I told you Arkansas opened at -7.5 and you didn't know any of the following. None of it. Think about how you may have played Ark -7.5 anyway, just given what Mizzou is this year (a total dumpster fire) without what I'm about to tell you, and think about how you could possibly play Missouri under any circumstances after hearing this.

1. The Ultimate Bulletin Board Material

Let's just get right to it. You want the team you are backing by what an opposing player said? You got it right here. And it's golden.

Missouri Linebacker (a defense that gave up SIXTY THREE to Tennessee last week) said the following:

Beisel intentionally mispronounced "Arkansas" as "Ar-kansas" three times. The St. Louis native said he was pulling a hoax and stringing the Razorbacks along in the recruiting process back in high school.

"Whether they decide to get on a plane and show up at our stadium on Friday, that's their call," Beisel told reporters, according to the Columbia Daily Tribune. "I'll tell you what, if they do decide to come, it's going to be hectic. Our fans are going to bring it, and we're going to bring it. It'd be a mistake, showing up in Columbia, Missouri.

"We're going to take some aggression out on Ar-kansas this Friday, this Black Friday. It's going to be a black-out game. They're not going to see what's coming. If they do decide to show up, like I said, it'll be a huge mistake.”

Beisel intentionally mispronounced "Arkansas" as "Ar-kansas" three times. The St. Louis native also said he was pulling a hoax and stringing the Razorbacks along in the recruiting process back in high school.

This team is 3-7. This team just gave up 600+ yards the previous week. This team is dead last in the SEC in total defense and he said that.

If a player from Alabama said this, it would catch my eye and I'd look to take the points. Here? I'll lay every point after hearing this given I'd be considering Ark anyway on this play. Of course, there are other reasons for the cap itself but this is an incredible motivator for Arkansas.

These comments were so inflammatory, HC Barry Odom had to have Beisel personally apologize for them (likely because of a potential on the field scuffle.)

Have the Arkansas players forgiven these comments after the apology? Not only haven't they, they have openly said Beilema has addressed them in the locker room, as in, "let your play do the talking on Friday."

And we have video of what the players think.

Want to hear how the players are treating this? The first two are benign and then you see how the players are taking this. I suggest you pop this into your browser and see it for yourself. It's your money, and needless to say, it's not pretty if you already locked a bet in on Missouri.

[link from unapproved source]

Now how, after this, if you knew nothing about this game, do you say "I like Missouri with the points here!"

Now let's look at what's on the field:

2. Missouri is fractured, inept, and spiraling out of control on defense and is it's offense won't be able to pick up the slack.

This defense was good last year. They brought in Drew Lock at QB, a true freshman, after Mauk was dismissed,  to give him the growing pains needed to survive this season.

They held Georgia to 9 last year in a loss. BYU 16 in a victory. Tennessee beat them 19-8. Teams didn't score on them.

When you laid points to Mizzou you had to be careful. They came to play on D and their D kept them in it.

Fast forward to this year:

63 to Tennessee as noted

31 to a South Carolina team that can't score on anyone. For comparison South Carolina only put up 34 on UMass at home!

51 to Middle Tennessee State AT HOME

40 to Florida, another team that has big problem putting points on the board

 
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I could give you a lot of numbers about their offense and defense. They are terrible. But the fact is, Drew Lock, their guy who lost all those games at the end of last year simply hasn't progressed as they expected. He is a compiler. Two 5 TD games have come against Deleware State and Eastern Michigan. 10 TD's against an FCS team (and a bad one at that) and what is a near FCS team. That really bolsters his numbers. While these numbers still have gone up the past 3 games, they simply aren't good enough to cover here with 4TD's and 4 INT's in the past 3 games. The pundits will say he ranks first among SEC QB's. Folks, WATCH HIM PLAY. He's a compiler. Makes bad decisions. Is still very green and hasn't lead this team to one victory against a team of worth in any start in his career.

And Lock is going to be in trouble because of the following.

This is what was said the last game:

During a Monday news conference, Tigers coach Barry Odom revealed quarterback Drew Lock isn’t fully healthy heading into Saturday’s game. However, the sophomore is slated to play as of now.

Nothing was disclosed as to why Odom said this but he never addressed it afterwards and we still don't know if he is 100%.

And I'd want him at 100% after hearing this:


3. RB Demarea Crockett was suspended for the season finale after an arrest.

I posted this earlier in the week. He set a Missouri rookie rushing record with 225 yards against Tennessee and the Volunteers still beat them 63-37. Now take those 225 yards away and think about what the score would have been. Well we are taking them away here.

Crockett has eclipsed 100 yards in five games, including four times in the past six games. Crockett flipped his commitment from Boise State to Missouri late in the recruiting process, and his performance had been a bright spot in an otherwise bleak season for Missouri.

Following Saturday’s game, Crockett expressed excitement for the game against Arkansas, which didn’t recruit him.

“Let’s go. Let’s do it. Bring it on,” Crockett said of the Black Friday rivalry game.

Think about what a boon to Missouri he could have been here. Now? Gone. All gone.

4. Bizarro Line Movement

Now for the kicker. I get push notifications of CFB news on my phone. I knew about the exact moment Crockett was suspended. I checked the line on 5Dimes. The line was -9 Missouri before the markets could react.

I checked 3 hours later. Amazingly, the line had returned to the opening line of -7.5 after he was suspended!

Someone was pouring money in on the Mizzou side AFTER Crockett was suspended! And this is with an offense that again, has problems and a defense that is downright embarrassing at times.

And the line has only moved a mere .5 pt to -8 after the comments in Bullet #1 above! Reallllly.....

So a win here will be a win against the alleged "Vegas Knows" theory which I love to fade. Why? Because if you cap a game completely YOU know more than Vegas. End of story. 

But there is even more.

4. This team still hasn't overcome it's internal turmoil from last year.

A short but relevant point. There were major protests on the Missouri campus that divided this team. So intense were they, the University President resigned due to them.

You all know where I stand on them but that is not the point of this cap.

When it comes to capping this team, the fallout of last year has carried over to this year and still lingers in the locker room, among the coaching staff, and among a divided fan base.

That fan base has not supported this team as ardently as last year in part, because they are terrible and also in part, because of their views about the protests. And this is a home game for Mizzou. That certainly waters down the home field advantage.

But there is even more.

5. Missouri has an NCAA investigation looming and it could extend to this football team.

Short and sweet: A tutor came out today and said she took ENTIRE COURSES for student-athletes.

What is the FIRST team you would say she took them for if asked? Yes, the football team.

The NCAA has said it will now investigate.

Now think about this: There could be some star Missouri players who heard this news broke today who may have their career ended or be subject to major suspensions.

This is conjecture since this news just broke but how in the hell will those players, if involved, give 100% in this game which means NOTHING to this team.

This game is COMPLETELY MEANINGLESS in a lost season. Senior Day? Whatever. This team has been a black scar on the University this year with it's performance. This was once a proud over-achieving team. No more.

I can now talk about how much Arkansas has to offer on the other side of the ball. I can give you stats. I can impress you. They are not all-world but they will drop a TON of points on you and now you have motivated them beyond belief.

Let's just give you ONE gem: Missouri just put up 661 yards on Mississippi State, the FOURTH highest in SCHOOL History.

Oh and Rawleigh Williams put up 202 yard with a 12.3 YPC average.

YES, Missouri put up 700+ yards on Tennessee BEFORE all the above but they still lost by almost THIRTY! That is INSANE!

Again Missouri is 116th in the nation in total D out of 128 giving up 447 yards per game. And their schedule does not include Titans on Offense. They have made average to below average offensive teams look like the Rams of the Faulk/Warner era. And this is right when Arkansas is turning up the heat offensively.

Worried about Austin Allen? 300 yards and a 60%+ completion rate in a bounce-back game last week. How in the world will Mizzou be motivated here in a half-empty stadium with all that swirls around them!???

Now do you really need me to go any further after reading the above.

A TROLL-SMASHER

 
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2016 Record: 31-13 (>70%)

This ones for all the trolls who incessantly whine and complain and harp on one loss, be it political prop bet or standard loss, while winner after winner gets posted in thread after thread.

Trolls are a unique bunch. They are one and the same.

They are much like a glass of water poured into an ocean. While the glass of water may be unique, after you pour it, it assimilates into the whole.

So the same trolls that ran League Capper off this site and so many others (and even MrBator who likely, in part, didn't want to put up with them), are not the same ones you see today.

But they function the same. The attacks are very much the same. The formula to shame and run people off this site is the same.

They want to attack that good cappers. They want to come after them and hit them hard during losing streaks, when they are the most vulnerable. If you hit 70% for two years, they bask in the glory of a single loss, even though it's inevitable. They want to criticize you with unsubstantiated claims (i.e., you faked your record! is a famous one, but is never researched by the troll making the accusation.).

But really, at the heart of trolling, is that you aren't within the confines of their "Capping humility code".

Bizarre isn't it? That they are moral gatekeepers. It's true. They do this. I should know. I've been subject to it for a decade.

You can win. You can post and win a ton  of money for a lot of posters. But DON'T get to high and mighty! They will be the arbiters of what that level of alleged arrogance is and THEY will keep it in check. They are the gatekeepers in this regard. Don't show any confidence in any pick! Don't use the word 'expertise' or else you are a self-proclaimed 'expert'!

And they are gatekeepers because they do not want your status superseding theirs. Because their masculinity is threated. This is quite common among men with low self-worth but more importantly, athletes.

Hyper-masculinity leads to altercations, first verbal and physical and then even modern warfare on the battlefield or football field. Thousands, and even millions of lives can be lost to appeal to this hyper-masculine mindset among leaders of countries, be it dictators or democratically-elected ones.

And it is right here on covers. When someone gets too confident?The gatekeepers will knock them down a notch!

But their is a panacea to this. Winning. When you win, they have no ammo. You have essentially emptied their oozy and they stand useless in the face of their complaint with a mere useless piece of steel. So that is what we will do. We will win.

And this lead-in about trolls and hyper-masculinity leads us to our pick, and the primary focus of this game.

The pick:

ARKANSAS -8 over Missouri 

Let's look at what is going on off the field before we look at what is going on, on the field to solidify this play.

Imagine if I told you Arkansas opened at -7.5 and you didn't know any of the following. None of it. Think about how you may have played Ark -7.5 anyway, just given what Mizzou is this year (a total dumpster fire) without what I'm about to tell you, and think about how you could possibly play Missouri under any circumstances after hearing this.

1. The Ultimate Bulletin Board Material

Let's just get right to it. You want the team you are backing motivated by what an opposing player said? You got it right here. And it's golden.

A Missouri Linebacker (ironically, on a defense that gave up SIXTY THREE to Tennessee last week) said the following:


 
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"Whether they decide to get on a plane and show up at our stadium on Friday, that's their call," Beisel told reporters, according to the Columbia Daily Tribune. "I'll tell you what, if they do decide to come, it's going to be hectic. Our fans are going to bring it, and we're going to bring it. It'd be a mistake, showing up in Columbia, Missouri.

"We're going to take some aggression out on Ar-kansas this Friday, this Black Friday. It's going to be a black-out game. They're not going to see what's coming. If they do decide to show up, like I said, it'll be a huge mistake.”

Beisel intentionally mispronounced "Arkansas" as "Ar-kansas" three times. The St. Louis native also said he was pulling a hoax and stringing the Razorbacks along in the recruiting process back in high school.

This team is 3-7. This team just gave up 600+ yards the previous week in a near 30 point loss. This team is dead last in the SEC in total defense and he said...that.

If a player from Alabama said this, it would catch my eye. Here? I'll lay every point after hearing this given I'd be considering Arkansas anyway on this play. Of course, there are other reasons for the cap itself but this is an incredible motivator for Arkansas.

These comments were so inflammatory, Missouri HC Barry Odom had to have Beisel personally apologize for them to Arkansas HC Beilema (likely because of a potential on the field scuffle pre-game or during the game).

Have the Arkansas players forgiven these comments after the apology? Not only haven't they, they have openly said Beilema has addressed them in the locker room, as in, "let your play do the talking on Friday." That is EXACTLY what I like to hear when it comes to bulletin board material motivating players. Forthright and effective. Let your play do the talking. We have to get over a spread of 8 and we want Arkansas to pour it on. And there is no reason after these comments, that we think they'll back off.

And we even have video of what the players think.

Want to hear how the players are treating this? The first two comments are benign and then you see how the players are taking this. I suggest you pop this into your browser and see it for yourself. It's your money, and needless to say, it's not pretty if you already locked a bet in on Missouri.

[link from unapproved source]

Now how, after this, if you knew nothing about this game, do you say "I like Missouri with the points here!"???

Now let's look at what's on the field:

2. Missouri is fractured, inept, and spiraling out of control on defense and is it's offense won't be able to pick up the slack.

This defense was good last year. They brought in Drew Lock at QB, a true freshman, after Mauk was dismissed,  to give him the growing pains needed to survive and progress THIS season.

They held Georgia to 9 last year in a loss. BYU to 16 in a victory. Tennessee beat them 19-8. Teams didn't score on them.

When you laid points to Mizzou, you had to be careful. They came to play on D and their D kept them in it.

Fast forward to this year:

63 given up to Tennessee as noted

31 to a South Carolina team that can't score on anyone. For comparison South Carolina only put up 34 on UMass at home!

51 to Middle Tennessee State AT HOME

40 to Florida, another team that has big problem putting points on the board

I could give you a lot of numbers about their offense and defense. They are mostly terrible. But the fact is, Drew Lock, their guy who lost all those games at the end of last year simply hasn't progressed as they expected. He is a compiler. Two 5 TD games have come against Delaware State and Eastern Michigan. 10 TD's against an FCS team (and a bad one at that) and what is an FBS team that is no threat to any average competition. Those games really bolsters Lock's numbers.

While these numbers still have gone up the past 3 games, they simply aren't good enough to cover here with 4TD's and 4 INT's in the past 3 games. The pundits will say he ranks first among SEC QB's. Folks, WATCH HIM PLAY. He's a compiler. Makes bad decisions. He is still very green and hasn't lead this team to one victory against a team of worth in any start in his career. Arkansas is a team of worth. He won't lead this team to victory so we need only worry about the spread.

 
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And Lock is going to be in trouble because of the following.

This is what was said before the last game:

During a Monday news conference, Tigers coach Barry Odom revealed quarterback Drew Lock isn’t fully healthy heading into Saturday’s game. However, the sophomore is slated to play as of now.

Nothing was disclosed as to why Odom said this but he never addressed it afterwards and we still don't know if he is 100%.

But of course, it gets even worse for Mizzou backers. I'd want my QB at 100% after hearing this:

3. RB Demarea Crockett was suspended for the season finale after an arrest.

I posted this earlier in the week. He set a Missouri rookie rushing record with 225 yards against Tennessee and the Volunteers still beat them 63-37. Now take those 225 yards away and think about what the score would have been. Well we are taking them away for this Arkansas game.

Crockett has eclipsed 100 yards in five games, including four times in the past six games. Crockett flipped his commitment from Boise State to Missouri late in the recruiting process, and his performance had been a bright spot in an otherwise bleak season for Missouri.

Following Saturday’s game, Crockett expressed excitement for the game against Arkansas, which didn’t recruit him.

“Let’s go. Let’s do it. Bring it on,” Crockett said of the Black Friday rivalry game.

Think about what a boon to Missouri he could have been here. Now? Gone. All gone.

4. Bizarro Line Movement

Now for the kicker. I get push notifications of CFB news on my phone. I knew about the exact moment Crockett was suspended. I checked the line on 5Dimes. The line was -9 Missouri before the markets could react.

I checked 3 hours later. Amazingly, the line had returned to the opening line of -7.5 after he was suspended!

Someone was pouring money in on the Mizzou side AFTER Crockett was suspended! And this is with an offense that again, has problems and a defense that is downright embarrassing at times.

And the line has only moved a mere .5 pt to -8 after the comments in from the Missouri Linebacker in Bullet #1 above! Reallllly....? Who here will agree those comments are worth .5 pts ATS against Missouri. Folks, they are worth a hell of a lot more than that.

So a win here will be a win against the alleged "Vegas Knows" theory which I love to fade. Why? Because if you cap a game completely YOU know more than Vegas. End of story. 

But I have even more to take Arkansas here.

4. This team still hasn't overcome it's internal turmoil from last year.

A short but relevant point. There were major protests on the Missouri campus that divided this team. So intense were they, the University President resigned due to them last year.

You all know where I stand on them but that is not the point of this cap.

When it comes to capping this team, the fallout of last year has carried over to this year and still lingers in the locker room, among the coaching staff, and among a divided fan base.

That fan base has not supported this team as ardently as last year in part, because they are terrible and also in part, because of their views about the protests. And this is a home game for Mizzou. That certainly waters down the home field advantage and the solidarity of this team, which is integral to winning, especially against good competition.

But there is even more for an Arkansas side...

5. Missouri has an NCAA investigation looming and it could extend to this football team.

Short and sweet: A tutor came out today and said she took ENTIRE COURSES for student-athletes.

What is the FIRST team you would say she took them for if asked? Yes, the football team.

The NCAA has said it will now investigate.

Now think about this: There could be some star Missouri players who heard this news broke today who may have their career ended or be subject to major suspensions.

This is conjecture since this news just broke but how in the hell will those players, if involved, give 100% in this game which means NOTHING to this team. This is just the possibility this could be true, but even the possibility would have me shivering if I have Missouri locked in, even with the points.

This game is COMPLETELY MEANINGLESS in a lost season. Senior Day? Whatever. This team has been a black scar on the University this year with it's performance. This was once a proud over-achieving team. No more.

I can now talk about how much Arkansas has to offer on the other side of the ball. I can give you stats. I can impress you. They are not all-world but they will drop a TON of points on you if they play a sieve of a D (they are here) and now you have motivated them beyond belief.

Let's just give you ONE gem: Missouri just put up 661 yards on Mississippi State, the FOURTH highest in SCHOOL History.

Oh and Rawleigh Williams put up 202 yard with a 12.3 YPC average. How will this D stop him?

YES, Missouri put up 700+ yards on Tennessee BEFORE all the above but they still lost by almost THIRTY! That is INSANE! I'll bet that may be the biggest point disparity in a loss with that amount of yards in a loss in NCAA HISTORY.

Again Missouri is 116th in the nation in total D out of 128 giving up 447 yards per game. And their schedule does not include titans on offense. They have made average to below average offensive teams look like the Rams of the Faulk/Warner Greatest Show on Turf era. And this is right when Arkansas is turning up the heat offensively.

Worried about Austin Allen? 300 yards and a 60%+ completion rate in a bounce-back game last week. How in the world will Mizzou be motivated here in a half-empty stadium with all that swirls around them in a nothing game!???

Now do you really need me to go any further after reading the above.

A TROLL-SMASHER Special. Just for you.

 
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thanks scal.
 
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2016 Record:31-14

...Keep your mouth shut if you know what's good for you.

The pick:

San Jose State -3 over Fresno State

There are many layers to an apparently meaningless game. But after intense observation, the meaningless becomes meaningful.

I make my money off of teams on losing streaks. Fresno State is one of those teams. They are on a 9 game losing streak. They are about to finish the worst season in their history. Now would be a good time to win.

If they have anything to play for, they should respond on the last game of the season. That's IF they haven't given up. We saw one such team give up last year. That team was UCF which finished 0-12. 

These games are interconnected. You only know what you know by learning through other caps, caps which didn't involve these current teams but situationally were similar. That is how we develop angles.

What were the ingredients to that 'give up' season?

1. A change at QB, be it injury or replacement which stagnates the offense, and a significant downgrade therein.

2. A change in head coach.

We have both here. But the head coaching change is the most impactful.

Ingredient #1: Fresno fired it's head coach, replaced him with an interim head coach, but then named a new head coach who is not coaching, thereby undermining the interim HC.

Fresno fired Tim DeRuyter after a 1-7. Mistake. Fresno had a very tough first 8 games with many games away. But 1-7 is 1-7.

Fresno decided to hire Eric Kiesau as their Interim HC, and kept him as OC and QB coach. The guy simply has too many responsibilities and the team is not responding.

Since he took over, they are 0-3 and the offensive stats have fallen off: 349 1st game, 232 2nd game, 214 3rd game. They also have been careless with the call and in three games under him have a -4 turnover ratio.

The team simply isn't responding to him.

One of the reasons that is is because Fresno took the unusual step of hiring a HC before the end of the season but kept the interim.

This is a problem. Why? Because you undermine the interim. Why heed the interim's orders when you know he is a goner.

The ONLY way it works out is if you hire a coach of prestige who will then "watch over" the final few games to round out his roster NY. FIU just did this with Butch Davis and won their next game after he was hired. Butch Davis is a very respected name in coaching circles.

Who did Fresno hire? Jeff Tedford. Never heard of him. Here's a bit about him:

Fresno State has bottomed out in 2016 and gambled with the most expensive hire in the conference: Jeff Tedford, a familiar name and former Bulldogs quarterback. He was the Cal head coach and hasn’t led a team a college team since 2012 and the last time he was a head coach was for one year in the CFL with the BC Lions in 2015.

So we don't get the 'Butch Davis effect', we don't have a Fresno team responding to it's interim coach, and the interim coach is in over his head anyway!

The axis of evil of coaching changes. Happening right here at Fresno.

We fade for this reason. Next reason.

2. Changing QB at the wrong time and replacing the regular starter with a bad one.

Fresno had a halfway decent QB in Chason Virgil and he made t 

 
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Posted: #22

Quote Originally Posted by GirlandGamble:

thanks scal.
The hell you doin' here!?!?!?
 
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2016 Record:31-14

...Keep your mouth shut if you know what's good for you.

The pick:

San Jose State -3 over Fresno State

There are many layers to an apparently meaningless game. But after intense observation, the meaningless becomes meaningful.

I make my money off of teams on losing streaks. Fresno State is one of those teams. They are on a 9 game losing streak. They are about to finish the worst season in their history. Now would be a good time to win.

If they have anything to play for, they should respond on the last game of the season. That's IF they haven't given up. We saw one such team give up last year. That team was UCF which finished 0-12. 

These games are interconnected. You only know what you know by learning through other caps, caps which didn't involve these current teams but situationally were similar. That is how we develop angles.

What were the ingredients to that 'give up' season?

1. A change at QB, be it injury or replacement which stagnates the offense, and a significant downgrade therein.

2. A change in head coach.

We have both here. But the head coaching change is the most impactful.

Ingredient #1: Fresno fired it's head coach, replaced him with an interim head coach, but then named a new head coach who is not coaching, thereby undermining the interim HC.

Fresno fired Tim DeRuyter after a 1-7. Mistake. Fresno had a very tough first 8 games with many games away. But 1-7 is 1-7.

Fresno decided to hire Eric Kiesau as their Interim HC, and kept him as OC and QB coach. The guy simply has too many responsibilities and the team is not responding.

Since he took over, they are 0-3 and the offensive stats have fallen off: 349 1st game, 232 2nd game, 214 3rd game. They also have been careless with the call and in three games under him have a -4 turnover ratio.

The team simply isn't responding to him.

One of the reasons that is is because Fresno took the unusual step of hiring a HC before the end of the season but kept the interim.

This is a problem. Why? Because you undermine the interim. Why heed the interim's orders when you know he is a goner.

The ONLY way it works out is if you hire a coach of prestige who will then "watch over" the final few games to round out his roster NY. FIU just did this with Butch Davis and won their next game after he was hired. Butch Davis is a very respected name in coaching circles.

Who did Fresno hire? Jeff Tedford. Never heard of him. Here's a bit about him:

Fresno State has bottomed out in 2016 and gambled with the most expensive hire in the conference: Jeff Tedford, a familiar name and former Bulldogs quarterback. He was the Cal head coach and hasn’t led a team a college team since 2012 and the last time he was a head coach was for one year in the CFL with the BC Lions in 2015.

So we don't get the 'Butch Davis effect', we don't have a Fresno team responding to it's interim coach, and the interim coach is in over his head anyway!

The axis of evil of coaching changes. Happening right here at Fresno.

We fade for this reason. Next reason.

2. Changing QB at the wrong time and replacing the regular starter with a bad one.

Fresno had a halfway decent QB in Chason Virgil. 2000+ yards. 13 TD's 10 INT's. He can even run a bit. I can work with that if I'm looking at a Fresno side in this game.

Kiesau benched him because he had a turnover laden game against Air Force (4 Ints). The problem was that he threw for 300+ yards and 3 TD's.

They replaced him with. He, like the team has regressed as the season has gone on:

147 yards in the first game with an INT

108 yards in the second game. Worse, almost HALF his yards came with a minute to play against Hawaii (on a drive where they missed a game-winning FG).

 
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2016 Record:31-14

...Keep your mouth shut if you know what's good for you.

The pick:

San Jose State -3 over Fresno State

There are many layers to an apparently meaningless game. But after intense observation, the meaningless becomes meaningful.

I make my money off of teams on losing streaks. Fresno State is one of those teams. They are on a 9 game losing streak. They are about to finish the worst season in their history. Now would be a good time to win.

If they have anything to play for, they should respond on the last game of the season. That's IF they haven't given up. We saw one such team give up last year. That team was UCF which finished 0-12. 

These games are interconnected. You only know what you know by learning through other caps, caps which didn't involve these current teams but situationally were similar. That is how we develop angles.

What were the ingredients to that 'give up' season?

1. A change at QB, be it injury or replacement which stagnates the offense, and a significant downgrade therein.

2. A change in head coach.

We have both here. But the head coaching change is the most impactful.

Ingredient #1: Fresno fired it's head coach, replaced him with an interim head coach, but then named a new head coach who is not coaching, thereby undermining the interim HC.

Fresno fired Tim DeRuyter after a 1-7. Mistake. Fresno had a very tough first 8 games with many games away. But 1-7 is 1-7.

Fresno decided to hire Eric Kiesau as their Interim HC, and kept him as OC and QB coach. The guy simply has too many responsibilities and the team is not responding.

Since he took over, they are 0-3 and the offensive stats have fallen off: 349 1st game, 232 2nd game, 214 3rd game. They also have been careless with the call and in three games under him have a -4 turnover ratio.

The team simply isn't responding to him.

One of the reasons that is is because Fresno took the unusual step of hiring a HC before the end of the season but kept the interim.

This is a problem. Why? Because you undermine the interim. Why heed the interim's orders when you know he is a goner.

The ONLY way it works out is if you hire a coach of prestige who will then "watch over" the final few games to round out his roster NY. FIU just did this with Butch Davis and won their next game after he was hired. Butch Davis is a very respected name in coaching circles.

Who did Fresno hire? Jeff Tedford. Never heard of him. Here's a bit about him:

Fresno State has bottomed out in 2016 and gambled with the most expensive hire in the conference: Jeff Tedford, a familiar name and former Bulldogs quarterback. He was the Cal head coach and hasn’t led a team a college team since 2012 and the last time he was a head coach was for one year in the CFL with the BC Lions in 2015.

So we don't get the 'Butch Davis effect', we don't have a Fresno team responding to it's interim coach, and the interim coach is in over his head anyway!

The axis of evil of coaching changes. Happening right here at Fresno.

We fade for this reason. Next reason.

Ingredient #2 Changing QB at the wrong time and replacing the regular starter with a bad one.

Fresno had a halfway decent QB in Chason Virgil. 2000+ yards. 13 TD's 10 INT's. He can even run a bit. I can work with that if I'm looking at a Fresno side in this game.

Kiesau benched him because he had a turnover laden game against Air Force (4 Ints). The problem was that he threw for 300+ yards and 3 TD's.

They replaced him with. He, like the team has regressed as the season has gone on:

147 yards in the first game with an INT

108 yards in the second game. Worse, almost HALF his yards came with a minute to play against Hawaii (on a drive where they missed a game-winning FG).

So here's your retort: "Well Scal, teams like Navy and New Mexico don't pass at all and they win a ton. You can win without the pass". 

That's right. If your running game is stellar. UNM is #1 in the nation in that area. Navy runs a feared triple option.

Fresno? #117th in rushing offense.

I think that's enough said on this point folks. 

Miscellaneous Point:

Someone can say, "Listen Scal, you say the team hasn't responded. They almost beat Hawaii last game under Kiesau. Hawaii is playing for bowl eligibility tomorrow against UMass."

This is true. They almost beat Hawaii. Fresno put up a stellar defensive effort to counter it's own offensive ineptitude. 276 yards TOTAL for Hawaii.

There's one HUGE problem with attributing this to the Fresno D.

Hawaii has had the single worst travel schedule in NCAA football history in terms of miles.

Not only did they have a trip to Australia to start the season (is that not as far a venue as humanly possible!!), Hawaii has had EVERY SINGLE game AWAY/HOME/AWAY/HOME....

Now the NCAA has ALWAYS schedule Hawaii with double games (2 home/2 in the continental US) to make it easier on them given the travel involved. NOT THIS YEAR. They fu**ing nailed them travel-wise.

That is in part why Hawaii had lost 4 of it's last 5 (almost losing that 5th in double OT) and barely, by the skin of it's teeth beating Fresno.

And that is why I am still capping this Hawaii Umass game tomorrow. It is so IFFY! This team is fu***ING TIRED. And Umass scheduled a vacation of sorts with this trip to Hawaii. Is it a bowl for them or a vacation against a tired Hawaii team. No one knows. Maybe Vegas knows....

Anyhow, even with the worst travel schedule in history running Hawaii ragged, Fresno STILL could only muster 13 points, a paltry amount of yards and they lost the game.

And now they have San Jose State coming in, who is a team reborn.

 
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Joined: Sep, 2006
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Posted: #25

2016 Record:31-14

...Keep your mouth shut if you know what's good for you.

The pick:

San Jose State -3 over Fresno State

There are many layers to an apparently meaningless game. But after intense observation, the meaningless becomes meaningful.

I make my money off of teams on losing streaks. Fresno State is one of those teams. They are on a 9 game losing streak. They are about to finish the worst season in their history. Now would be a good time to win.

If they have anything to play for, they should respond on the last game of the season. That's IF they haven't given up. We saw one such team give up last year. That team was UCF which finished 0-12. 

These games are interconnected. You only know what you know by learning through other caps, caps which didn't involve these current teams but situationally were similar. That is how we develop angles.

What were the ingredients to that 'give up' season?

1. A change at QB, be it injury or replacement which stagnates the offense, and a significant downgrade therein.

2. A change in head coach.

We have both here. But the head coaching change is the most impactful.

Ingredient #1: Fresno fired it's head coach, replaced him with an interim head coach, but then named a new head coach who is not coaching, thereby undermining the interim HC.

Fresno fired Tim DeRuyter after a 1-7. Mistake. Fresno had a very tough first 8 games with many games away. But 1-7 is 1-7.

Fresno decided to hire Eric Kiesau as their Interim HC, and kept him as OC and QB coach. The guy simply has too many responsibilities and the team is not responding.

Since he took over, they are 0-3 and the offensive stats have fallen off: 349 1st game, 232 2nd game, 214 3rd game. They also have been careless with the call and in three games under him have a -4 turnover ratio.

The team simply isn't responding to him.

One of the reasons that is is because Fresno took the unusual step of hiring a HC before the end of the season but kept the interim.

This is a problem. Why? Because you undermine the interim. Why heed the interim's orders when you know he is a goner.

The ONLY way it works out is if you hire a coach of prestige who will then "watch over" the final few games to round out his roster NY. FIU just did this with Butch Davis and won their next game after he was hired. Butch Davis is a very respected name in coaching circles.

Who did Fresno hire? Jeff Tedford. Never heard of him. Here's a bit about him:

Fresno State has bottomed out in 2016 and gambled with the most expensive hire in the conference: Jeff Tedford, a familiar name and former Bulldogs quarterback. He was the Cal head coach and hasn’t led a team a college team since 2012 and the last time he was a head coach was for one year in the CFL with the BC Lions in 2015.

So we don't get the 'Butch Davis effect', we don't have a Fresno team responding to it's interim coach, and the interim coach is in over his head anyway!

The axis of evil of coaching changes. Happening right here at Fresno.

We fade for this reason. Next reason.

Ingredient #2 Changing QB at the wrong time and replacing the regular starter with a bad one.

Fresno had a halfway decent QB in Chason Virgil. 2000+ yards. 13 TD's 10 INT's. He can even run a bit. I can work with that if I'm looking at a Fresno side in this game.

Kiesau benched him because he had a turnover laden game against Air Force (4 Ints). The problem was that he threw for 300+ yards and 3 TD's.

They replaced him with. He, like the team has regressed as the season has gone on:

147 yards in the first game with an INT

108 yards in the second game. Worse, almost HALF his yards came with a minute to play against Hawaii (on a drive where they missed a game-winning FG).

So here's your retort: "Well Scal, teams like Navy and New Mexico don't pass at all and they win a ton. You can win without the pass". 

That's right. If your running game is stellar. UNM is #1 in the nation in that area. Navy runs a feared triple option.

Fresno? #117th in rushing offense.

I think that's enough said on this point folks. 

Miscellaneous Point #1:

Someone can say, "Listen Scal, you say the team hasn't responded. They almost beat Hawaii last game under Kiesau. Hawaii is playing for bowl eligibility tomorrow against UMass."

This is true. They almost beat Hawaii. Fresno put up a stellar defensive effort to counter it's own offensive ineptitude. 276 yards TOTAL for Hawaii.

There's one HUGE problem with attributing this to the Fresno D.

Hawaii has had the single worst travel schedule in NCAA football history in terms of miles.

Not only did they have a trip to Australia to start the season (is that not as far a venue as humanly possible!!), Hawaii has had EVERY SINGLE game AWAY/HOME/AWAY/HOME....

Now the NCAA has ALWAYS schedule Hawaii with double games (2 home/2 in the continental US) to make it easier on them given the travel involved. NOT THIS YEAR. They fu**ing nailed them travel-wise.

That is in part why Hawaii had lost 4 of it's last 5 (almost losing that 5th in double OT) and barely, by the skin of it's teeth beating Fresno.

And that is why I am still capping this Hawaii Umass game tomorrow. It is so IFFY! This team is fu***ING TIRED. And Umass scheduled a vacation of sorts with this trip to Hawaii. Is it a bowl for them or a vacation against a tired Hawaii team. No one knows. Maybe Vegas knows....

Anyhow, even with the worst travel schedule in history running Hawaii ragged, Fresno STILL could only muster 13 points, a paltry amount of yards and they lost the game.

And now they have San Jose State coming in, who is a team reborn.

Miscellaneous Point #2:

San Jose State was a team that couldn't score, couldn't gain yards, and couldn't win in the first 7 games. They had to fight tooth and nail with awful Nevada 14-10 at home.

Well after a 42-3 loss to SDSU, they've scored 30,31, and 38 with one win over UNLV and two losses to Boise and Air Force.

And they absolutely GIFTED the win to Air Force last week with Air Force literally winning in the last second on a spectacular catch, 41-38. 424, 495, 457 yards.

While Fresno is on the downswing, San Jose is on the upswing. 

Miscellaneous point #3:

San Jose State's coach Ron Caragher is on the hot seat. Zero seasons above .500 in 4 years. Keeping the Valley trophy in San Jose and avoiding a close-out loss to the worst Fresno team in history can help him.

Fresno's coach? He's already been hired!

Let's close this pick out a quote from new Fresno head coach Jeff Tedford. Words of encouragement before Fresno's final game and then he takes over:

"When I look at the numbers, I'm like, 'What happened here?'  It kinda looks like a team that has been on probation for four or five years."

They will say it's a coin flip. They will say it's a meaningless game.

I say...we will win.

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