Gut says Packers are the more complete team and should win but just too many factors surrounding this game for it to be this simple. broncos at home have been world beaters last 20 games or so.
- Do not trust the Broncos air attack to consistently matriculate in the passing game against the well rested Packers defense. (Megalocks book on gambling, pg 120)
- The Broncos pass rush is scary good but Packers offensive line has been very consistent this year and packers offense and ball release from Rodgers has been very quick. This should help negate the pressure some. However, Broncos 2nd in league in pass D right behind Jets alloiwng only 6 ypa and 192 ypg
- Do not trust the Broncos rushing game (30th in the league) but this will somewhat be offset by Packers subpar rushing D allowing 4.7 ypc and 119 ypg
- GB passing D has also been pretty good (7th) at 6.8 ypa and 237 ypg
Many more things to look at here but to me when you break it down this game looks more and more like a coin flip the further I go along.
LEAN: Denver ML and under (guessing 48)
Injury bug deserves its own huge post as Denver has lots of ?? on D...demarcus ware, akim talib etc....much needed Bi for them too