***Packers -2.5 @ Broncos discussion***

First << 1 of 4 >> Last
Views: 7378
Posts: 97
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2010
Posts: 26133
#1 Report User
Posted:

Both teams coming off bye. Much needed especially for Packers as their defense was shredded by Philip Skivers in record breaking fashion. You saw what happened when he faced a real defense this week up until we pulled our starters in the 4th quarter

Gut says Packers are the more complete team  and should win but just too many factors surrounding this game for it to be this simple. broncos at home have been world beaters last 20 games or so.

  1. Do not trust the Broncos air attack to consistently matriculate in the passing game against the well rested Packers defense. (Megalocks book on gambling, pg 120)
  2. The Broncos pass rush is scary good but Packers offensive line has been very consistent this year and packers offense and ball release from Rodgers has been very quick. This should help negate the pressure some. However, Broncos 2nd in league in pass D right behind Jets alloiwng only 6 ypa and 192 ypg
  3. Do not trust the Broncos rushing game (30th in the league) but this will somewhat be offset by Packers subpar rushing D allowing 4.7 ypc and 119 ypg
  4. GB passing D has also been pretty good (7th) at 6.8 ypa and 237 ypg

Many more things to look at here but to me when you break it down this game looks more and more like a coin flip the further I go along.


LEAN: Denver ML and under (guessing 48)


Injury bug deserves its own huge post as Denver has lots of ?? on D...demarcus ware, akim talib etc....much needed Bi for them too


Thoughts?

 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2010
Posts: 26133
#2 Report User
Posted:

Denver needed a bye not a bi
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2008
Posts: 614
#3 Report User
Posted:

man can't  wait for this game. i.like the packers man
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2014
Posts: 23978
#4 Report User
Posted:

O/U is 45.5
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2011
Posts: 6196
#5 Report User
Posted:

Packers will be my biggest play of the year.

Never in my life have I seen a 6-0 team that could easily be 1-5. 

Luck runs out this week.

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2013
Posts: 127
#6 Report User
Posted:

I swear man idc how Peyton has looked so far, betting against manning in a prime time game isn't always a wise move 
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2007
Posts: 21604
#7 Report User
Posted:

If gb  wins turnover battle they won't lose gb large for me 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2011
Posts: 473
#8 Report User
Posted:

Key injuries to watch during the week for GB: On defense, BJ Raji, Nick Perry and Morgan Burnett. On offense, Adams & Ty Montgomery. 

I think GB gets two picks against Manning, maybe more.  They beat SD last week purely on talent alone, bye came at a perfect time for a very banged up GB squad.



 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2014
Posts: 9876
#9 Report User
Posted:

Rodgers and Brady both trump Manning as far as betting against someone in prime time. GB will destroy this Denver team. As someone said, Denver could very easily be 1-5. The slipper comes off and I can't wait.
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2015
Posts: 717
#10 Report User
Posted:

Quote Originally Posted by earthWake:

Packers will be my biggest play of the year.

Never in my life have I seen a 6-0 team that could easily be 1-5. 

Luck runs out this week.


YUP 
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2013
Posts: 21777
#11 Report User
Posted:

I like the home dog. That Denver defense is nasty.

 almost everyone will be on the Packers on the thought that the Broncos have been one lucky son of a bitcch to be 6-0. Defense wins championships
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2010
Posts: 26133
#12 Report User
Posted:

Quote Originally Posted by earthWake:

Packers will be my biggest play of the year.Never in my life have I seen a 6-0 team that could easily be 1-5. Luck runs out this week.


I hear what you are saying but we are talking about perhaps the best D in the league off a bye at home . I believe they have two losses at home past two years. They should have at a minimum 2 loss right now but their defense keeps them in every game. Might just take the under as I think this will be mostly a defensive ball game
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2012
Posts: 1801
#13 Report User
Posted:

The Packers are the better team but this reminds me a bit of Rodgers going into Buffalo and having a hell of a time trying to throw the ball.  The Broncos have been playing at a ridiculous level on defense so I'm feeling like Denver will have some value for the ML or +3.5 or more.  There will probably be better picks besides this game, though.
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2013
Posts: 21777
#14 Report User
Posted:

classic 23-20 ball game 
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2011
Posts: 5331
#15 Report User
Posted:

I'm on Broncos if I had to play it today,but I'm playing this game for a healthy amount...Broncos D will disrupt Rodgers in the Altitude.
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2011
Posts: 6196
#16 Report User
Posted:

Quote Originally Posted by Digitalkarma:

I like the home dog. That Denver defense is nasty.

 almost everyone will be on the Packers on the thought that the Broncos have been one lucky son of a bitcch to be 6-0. Defense wins championships

Week 1: Outplayed the entire game by a poor Ravens team. Needed a late pick six, and a Ravens drop in the endzone with seconds left to win.

Week 2: Outplayed the entire game by a poor Chiefs team. Needed a 4th and 10 conversion late, and an incredible 2 touchdown in final 30 second span to win that game.

Week 3: I'll give them this win over Lions but it was far, far from impressive.

Week 4: Vikings no-show in the first half, spotted a 20-3 lead and almost blow it. Need a late strip sack with Vikings driving for the tie/win to win this game.

Week 5: Poor performance aided by 2 missed Janikowski FGs in 4th quarter that would have given them the lead. Lucky pick 6 on miscommunication that I read may have been caused by the Blue Angels flying over head.

Week 6: Browns have the Ball in overtime and need roughly 10-15 yards to kick game winning FG. Somehow escape to win by 3.


Lucky is an understatement. Now they play one of the best teams in the NFL. Rodgers has seen and beat better defenses (legion of boom) than this Denver one. Denver can't run the ball to save their life and Manning needs to crow hop to get the ball down field. Luck runs out this week. 


 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2012
Posts: 1387
#17 Report User
Posted:

McCarthy is 9-0 ATS after the bye

Kubiuk is 3-4 afte the bye

nuff said...

Going Packers large
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2013
Posts: 21777
#18 Report User
Posted:

Quote Originally Posted by earthWake:


Week 1: Outplayed the entire game by a poor Ravens team. Needed a late pick six, and a Ravens drop in the endzone with seconds left to win.

Week 2: Outplayed the entire game by a poor Chiefs team. Needed a 4th and 10 conversion late, and an incredible 2 touchdown in final 30 second span to win that game.

Week 3: I'll give them this win over Lions but it was far, far from impressive.

Week 4: Vikings no-show in the first half, spotted a 20-3 lead and almost blow it. Need a late strip sack with Vikings driving for the tie/win to win this game.

Week 5: Poor performance aided by 2 missed Janikowski FGs in 4th quarter that would have given them the lead. Lucky pick 6 on miscommunication that I read may have been caused by the Blue Angels flying over head.

Week 6: Browns have the Ball in overtime and need roughly 10-15 yards to kick game winning FG. Somehow escape to win by 3.


Lucky is an understatement. Now they play one of the best teams in the NFL. Rodgers has seen and beat better defenses (legion of boom) than this Denver one. Denver can't run the ball to save their life and Manning needs to crow hop to get the ball down field. Luck runs out this week. 



i agree with your assessment but maybe Denver is destined this year. Packers have played a rather fairly pedestrian schedule too and have been doing a lot of home cooking and you know the Packers are much better at home than on the road.

Denver's running game may be non existant.. but they've played some good Run D teams. sure their running game has underachieved overall but when given a chance i think they can run against average run defenses like they did against the Browns last week. i think they will have some success running on the Packers..

this is a tricky game. if the line goes up to 3 or 3.5 even i'm jumping on the Broncos
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2010
Posts: 10062
#19 Report User
Posted:

Broncs
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 4446
#20 Report User
Posted:

Quote Originally Posted by VegasVandal:

Both teams coming off bye. Much needed especially for Packers as their defense was shredded by Philip Skivers in record breaking fashion. You saw what happened when he faced a real defense this week up until we pulled our starters in the 4th quarter

Gut says Packers are the more complete team  and should win but just too many factors surrounding this game for it to be this simple. broncos at home have been world beaters last 20 games or so.

  1. Do not trust the Broncos air attack to consistently matriculate in the passing game against the well rested Packers defense. (Megalocks book on gambling, pg 120)
  2. The Broncos pass rush is scary good but Packers offensive line has been very consistent this year and packers offense and ball release from Rodgers has been very quick. This should help negate the pressure some. However, Broncos 2nd in league in pass D right behind Jets alloiwng only 6 ypa and 192 ypg
  3. Do not trust the Broncos rushing game (30th in the league) but this will somewhat be offset by Packers subpar rushing D allowing 4.7 ypc and 119 ypg
  4. GB passing D has also been pretty good (7th) at 6.8 ypa and 237 ypg

Many more things to look at here but to me when you break it down this game looks more and more like a coin flip the further I go along.


LEAN: Denver ML and under (guessing 48)


Injury bug deserves its own huge post as Denver has lots of ?? on D...demarcus ware, akim talib etc....much needed Bi for them too


Thoughts?



I don't think their OL played consistent. Against the Seahawks I counted 8 would-be-sacks for instance (if not for the greatness of Rodgers).

The Packers needed 4 INTs (one for six) and three missed FGs to beat a good defense at Lambeau (Rams).
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2015
Posts: 240
#21 Report User
Posted:

Quote Originally Posted by powercore:

McCarthy is 9-0 ATS after the bye

Kubiuk is 3-4 afte the bye

nuff said...

Going Packers large
vandal with the "lean" on denver which means no play and if denver win he'll act like a "genius" 
Packers large here also. "Leans" kill me knowing this chump wont have a play on this game or probably any game next week....
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2006
Posts: 1734
#22 Report User
Posted:

Quote Originally Posted by Stevedore:

Key injuries to watch during the week for GB: On defense, BJ Raji, Nick Perry and Morgan Burnett. On offense, Adams & Ty Montgomery. 

I think GB gets two picks against Manning, maybe more.  They beat SD last week purely on talent alone, bye came at a perfect time for a very banged up GB squad.


Couldn't agree more, bye week couldn't have come at better time for GB.  Would feel much better taking GB if all these guys are back.

SD absolutely shredding GB pass D was scary though and w/o much pressure on Rivers w/ backup OL playing.  The pass D were looking good going into that game.  Yes, I know Rivers is light years ahead of Manning now.

GB passing struggle the 3 games b4 bye.
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2010
Posts: 26550
#23 Report User
Posted:

Quote Originally Posted by powercore:

McCarthy is 9-0 ATS after the bye

Kubiuk is 3-4 afte the bye

nuff said...

Going Packers large

Trends like this are pretty to look at, but the game is about matchups. 

I just think Packers are the better team this year, so I do like the play
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2014
Posts: 347
#24 Report User
Posted:

This game is probably a no play for me even with how horrid Peyton has looked, but maybe a bye week to prepare for this game is what he needed.

The Packers D looks terrible, SD threw all over them last week and Gurley had a monster game 2 weeks ago, I just don't see how will the Broncos be able to exploit that weakness when they can't run and can't pass for much.

Good D's have been able to contain the Packers, and the Broncos are probably the best they've faced so far (since the Seahawks D hasn't looked that great until this week). But maybe after the bye they can get Cobb back at a 100% and Lacey from whatever he's struggling with.

Too close of a call for me to pick either side, they are better matchups on the board. 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2014
Posts: 347
#25 Report User
Posted:

Quote Originally Posted by earthWake:


Week 1: Outplayed the entire game by a poor Ravens team. Needed a late pick six, and a Ravens drop in the endzone with seconds left to win.

Week 2: Outplayed the entire game by a poor Chiefs team. Needed a 4th and 10 conversion late, and an incredible 2 touchdown in final 30 second span to win that game.

Week 3: I'll give them this win over Lions but it was far, far from impressive.

Week 4: Vikings no-show in the first half, spotted a 20-3 lead and almost blow it. Need a late strip sack with Vikings driving for the tie/win to win this game.

Week 5: Poor performance aided by 2 missed Janikowski FGs in 4th quarter that would have given them the lead. Lucky pick 6 on miscommunication that I read may have been caused by the Blue Angels flying over head.

Week 6: Browns have the Ball in overtime and need roughly 10-15 yards to kick game winning FG. Somehow escape to win by 3.


Lucky is an understatement. Now they play one of the best teams in the NFL. Rodgers has seen and beat better defenses (legion of boom) than this Denver one. Denver can't run the ball to save their life and Manning needs to crow hop to get the ball down field. Luck runs out this week. 



Packers haven't played that well either, they don't have a single W against a team with winning record and they haven't really crushed any oppnent, even my crappy 49ers were in the game until the last quarter against them. 

That luck argument is exactly what will make all the cash go to the Packers, but in reality they haven't been playing very well either, bad running game, banged up WR corps, bad D, it's all on Rodgers.
First << 1 of 4 >> Last
Desktop View: Switch to Mobile View