A few MLB Systems

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I have played around and invested in these following systems for the last 3-4 years now.  Figured I would share the ideas that are quite simple and get some thoughts. The last 2 years results have been profitable and last year was very good.  I believe the ideas fit into a parity model which i believe the league has somewhat become over the last few years. in '12 & '11 i do not have accurate numbers per say as i think i was getting to fancy with trying every type of filter i could think of, a quick back test of those years did not have the same success as the last 2 years.  I have played as laid out below for the last 2 years with success.  The reason i like them is it does not strain a BR to much, 2 systems are DOG systems and the VRPI by years end has a pretty low avg line which works well on a LABBY. It also doesn't really require that much of an initial investment, and of coarse had profit.  Let me know your thoughts, I will post a system spreadsheet with these 3 systems within once the season starts if you would like to track or play.
GL
 
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2.  The qualifying team must be a DOG to qualify for a play 

3. Only play the qualifying DOG up to 4 consecutive plays during the team’s current losing streak.                  


2014 season results had 140 total qualifying plays, 76 wins vs. 64 losses for 54.29%.  4% compounding from IBR of $2500 had >200% ROIBR.  I stopped playing Sept. 1
 
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That cut & paste didnt work worth sh*t, 
 
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Icy L4 Dog Compounding Play
1. A qualifying team is identified by a team who has a current streak of L4 or greater.
2. The qualifying team must be Dogged in the game
3. Only play the DOG up to 4 consecutive games during the teams current losing streak
4. Flat betting on DOG at 1-5% (discretion) of current BR balance..compounding strategy on each days end balance
a. NO chasing, if qualifying team is a DOG one day & continues to lose but is a FAVE the next, it is not a play. If team breaks losing streak as a FAVE, look for the next L4 qualifier.
5. Starts from season start

2014 had 140 total plays, 76W vs 64 L for 54.29%.  At 4% compounding of IBR of $2500 created >200% ROIBR.
 
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Icy W5Fade
1. A qualifying team to FADE is identified by a team who has won 5 or more consecutive games (W5 or better)
2. The opponent of the qualifying team must be a DOG in the game.
3. Only FADE a team on a winning streak for 2 consecutive plays, when thier opponent is Dogged
4. Flat betting using 1-5% compounding strategy on days balance
5. Starts from season start

2014 had 70 qualifying plays, 38W vs 32L for 54%, 4% compounding from IBR of $2500 had 75% ROIBR
 
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Top VRPI
1. The qualifying team is on the ROAD with the highest road RPI differential for games that day.  
2. Played on LABBY ($100 = 25-25-25-25)
3. If the same team qualifies in consecutive nights (which will occur) but won previously vs the same team, there is NO play that day.
If the team qualifies in non-consecutive nights i will play them twice in the same series vs their opponent. 
2014 had 83 plays, 49W vs 34L for 59.04%.  Labby produced >100% ROIBR.
 
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Should also state that i stopped L4DOG and VRPI on or around September 1 as they had the most profit at the time and needed to roll into the NFL .  I played the W5Fade to close to seasons end for some Sept MLB action and hoping to squeeze out some more profits.
 
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I extracted my results from the 3 systems last year into one workbook.  If you want to see the qualifying games.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9UBaNk9s7UjN1dYekViS2JQU3M/view?usp=sharing

If you want to see how the compounding effect worked on the BR and days balance you can delete the bet amount in column I up to the first game that qualified (I9).  This sheet would tell you what your days bet would be on each qualifying game in cell I6.  If you want you can run through each day and see its effect.

 
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Quote Originally Posted by jenjay23:

Icy W5Fade
1. A qualifying team to FADE is identified by a team who has won 5 or more consecutive games (W5 or better)
2. The opponent of the qualifying team must be a DOG in the game.
3. Only FADE a team on a winning streak for 2 consecutive plays, when thier opponent is Dogged
4. Flat betting using 1-5% compounding strategy on days balance
5. Starts from season start

2014 had 70 qualifying plays, 38W vs 32L for 54%, 4% compounding from IBR of $2500 had 75% ROIBR

@jenjay, Thanks once more for sharing your system. Please I would like you to elaborate or explain comprehensively what you mean by this  "Flat betting using 1-5% compounding strategy on days balance" How do you apply this compounding strategy. I would appreciate your response.
 
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Ralianza,
I set a fixed amount that i will invest in a system or my Initial Bankroll. The strategy i use is to always bet the designated percentage i choose, dependent on the balance of that initial investment.  An example would be if you started with $1000 and chose to use 5% of your BR.   You would bet $50 on the first qualifying game, lets say that qualifying game was +150, and won ($50 to win $75).  Your balance after the first win is $1075, when the second qualifying game presents itself, your bet size would be 5% of $1075 or $53.75.  If by chance there is 2 qualifying games the same day at the same starting time, i would simply place $53.75 on both games.
In the contrary to the example above, if that first qualifying game lost, your balance would be $950, your next game you would risk 5% of $950 or $47.50.
I have only tried this for the last 2 years within these MLB DOG systems.  I believe the strategy has created more value compared to betting a straight amount on every game (example above would be to just bet $50 on every qualifying game).

hope that helps explain
GL
 
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Really looking Fwd to these systems!
 
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do you plan on running these systems this year publicly?? if you are not i would be willing to do so for the forum if thats ok with you
 
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That would be awesome Trader. I will provide an automated system sheet in early April that should provide all the qualifying plays 
 
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awesome thank u sir!
 
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looking forward to it. 

keep us posted

 
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im halfway through back testing your last years numbers, not that I think u are lying more so to make sure there are no errors before I put my hard earned cash into these systems. they look pretty solid I am only through the AL and I found 3 discrepancies on your sheet for your 5W fade.

I just wanted to ask if you made a special filter that ou didn't list or did you just make a clerical error?? I see that on 5 -13 game 1 oak vs chigo should have been counted as a loss, on 7-25 tampa at boston should have been a game 2 loss, and on 6-2 you have the boston Cleveland game as a loss when it was a win.

 

as I said im not critiquing you I just was curious if you had other filters or if it was just a common mistake?? thank you!

 
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Totally cool with your due diligence.  I extracted the pages right from my sheet which requires some manual inputs so there may be a few human input errors.  I may also have missed a game or two as I am in Vegas for a good part of June but i dont think so as i run it pretty loyal when I am down there.  I looked quickly at the games you mentioned a possible conflict with, on 5-13-2014, OAK had a streak of W4, not W5 so they would not qualify on that day.  on 5-14 they did qualify as they were at a streak of W5 and CWS were a dog, CWS ended up winning that day.   On 7-25 you mention BOS @ TB was a loss, that game would not of qualified as we were fading TB as they were W5 or greater, it did not qualify because BOS was a fave in that game and for it to be a play the opponent of the qualifying team has to be a DOG,.  On 6-2 it must of been my mistake in entering the game result.....hope that answers a bit of questions, let me know if you find anymore and i will try to give answers if I have any 
 
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But on the filter topic, in years past i played with a teams win %, road win % and home win % filters.  What i found is with filters in minimized volume of games played but at days end it was a wash in the profit/loss column.  For the last 2 years i have played without filters
 
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U r the man!! Im save myself the time of reviewing previous years! The sample size is ample enough that I suspect similar results
 
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jenjay23

im about halfway though back testing your 4L system in 2013 and the amount of plays is well higher than that of 2014 as well as the sheer volume of losing streaks over 8 games. do you have your 2013 numbers for this system by any chance? or even all 3 systems for 2013? thank you in advance!!
 
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Trader,
I do have 2013 numbers. I am on the road right now and will share them when I get back to my computer.
 
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i just wanted to make sure i was following correctly on the 4 L system. thank you again!
 
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Trader,
I pulled my 2013 results for the L4Dog system and quickly reviewed.  I did notice that within my bet tracking sheet i did not have every qualifying game inserted.  I believe this is because it either crossed another system play i was playing or i used my discretion in not playing some qualifying games.  For the purpose of what i believe your accomplishing in your due diligence of the system i went back and inserted what i believe is all the qualifying games.  It still showed a profit but obviously not as well as 2014 did and if you played every qualifying game in 2013 it might not have been worth it.  I did notice that half way through May it doubled your $$ so that might have been a good time to quit. With the games i left out I had a much better profit by season end but again played as is wasnt to sh*t hot.  Here is a link to what i believe was all the qualifying games for you to dissect:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9UBaNk9s7UjWlRtVVJUSzJlTUU/view?usp=sharing

Take care & GL with this upcoming season

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