suuma's NFL conference championship - does the truth lie in the numbers ? Another try.

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Posted: #1

77-51 (60.2%)

My goal to stay above 61% took a bad hit last week, going 1-3 after Dez Bryant's incompletion spoiled my over pick. Another thing I've learned: In case Peyton Manning comes back next season, don't bet on him in the playoffs. Generally I decrease my betting amounts the week after I lost. These are my picks this week:


I had a few nice discussions going through the week about the GB/SEA game and I probably have a very opposite view on it than most others on here. Have the Seahawks adjusted since their bad start into the season ? Yes. Do they have the best defense by numbers right now ? Yes. Did they face a good offense during that huge stretch since week 10 ? No. I listed their opponents since the KC win along with their ranking in the following stats: yards per play, yards per pass attempt, yards per carry, run blocking and pass protection of the o-lines according to www.footballoutsiders.com :

Arizona - #28 / #21 / #32 / #25 / #6
San Fran - #23 / #25 / #3 / #10 / #30
Philly - #11 / #12 / #15 / #30 / #9
San Fran - #23 / #25 / #3 / #10 / #30
Arizona - #28 / #21 / #32 / #25 / #6
St. Louis - #19 / #20 / #16 / #17 / #23
Carolina - #21 / #23 / #13 / #27 / #22

Green Bay #1 / #1 / #11 / #8 / #13

Can you smell the discrepancy ? I know Rodgers is hurt, but he has another full week to get healthier. Seattle's defense has been AWESOME, but they couldn't prove it against a good offense. So why should I believe they will shut down the Packers offense ?? I can't.

During the first half of the season we have been talking about their d-line problems, because the Seahawks have been lacking depth. They combined for just five sacks against Denver, Oakland, Dallas and NYG - All teams who have a top-10 offensive-line. Now their d-line suddenly looks HUGE. They didn't add any depth so why do they look so good right now ? Because they played either teams with bad o-lines OR weak offenses. Arizona allow very few sacks, but Drew Stanton and Ryan Lindley are not the greatest QBs on the planet and don't have the receiving staff to get rid of the ball when they get pressure. Nor do the Arizona Cardinals have a run game. Green Bay has both.

And how about the matchup of the Seahawks offense against the GB defense ? Well, there is another interesting stat. Did you know that just four of Seattle's opponents this season rank above GB in total defense (yards per play) ? SF (2x), Denver & KC. Seahawks average ppg in those games ? 19 in regulation. GB ranks #10 in total defense with 5.3 yards per play allowed. On the road ? #10 in total defense with 5.4 yards per play allowed. Keep in mind that GB gave up a ton of yards per play in the second half when they were up by a huge amount of points. They allow the 6th fewest first half points, just 0.3 points more than Seattle. In many games they didn't need to fight until the end.

Seattle will be missing Paul Richardson. That steals depth at the WR position. #11 passing defense, #9 road passing defense against Doug Baldwin, Jermain Kearse & Luke Willson - I am not really afraid.

Keep one thing in mind: Passing means more than rushing to score points and to win long term on both sides of the ball. I made a correlation analysis at the beginning of December. Yards per pass attempt do correlate with scored points for 76% while yards per rush attempt correlate for 22% with scored points. Equal thing on defense. For further information, read this one: http://thepowerrank.com/2014/01/10/which-nfl-teams-make-and-win-in-the-playoffs/

When I sum up all the stuff, there is just one play for me: Green Bay Packers getting more than a TD against a defense that wasn't tested against a good offense lately.


Green Bay Packers +7.5 -116
Packers +15.5 / Patriots -0.5 -110


Good luck everybody
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Posted: #2

  Wow, you never tease.  I'm on GB as well.

Great year, Heff. 

Watched the episode where Doug and Carrie go camping and lose the canoe tonight... LMFAO 

 
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Liking GB myself. GL Suuma
 
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Posted: #5

Good luck buddy, no play on the colt and pat game?
 
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Posted: #6

First let me say that I have a lot of respect for you suuma and I always enjoy to read you.

Here's a simple observation of Packers on the road:

16 @Seattle L
7 @Detroit L
38 @Chicago W
27 @Miami W
23 @New Orleans L
24 @Vikings W
13 @Buffalo L
20 @Tampa Bay W

Average 21 and 4-4 SU

I think that you have to consider that the packers aren't the same team outside Lambeau.

You can't just take offensive opponents of Seattle to convince us that Green Bay +7.5 is the play here.
 
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Posted: #7

Thanks for posting
 
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Posted: #8

Weldon champion on good goal, but it should be more then 61%. Me Sejal new on this forum but i like it that for great interest 
 
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Posted: #9

Quote Originally Posted by powerbalance:

First let me say that I have a lot of respect for you suuma and I always enjoy to read you.

Here's a simple observation of Packers on the road:

16 @Seattle L
7 @Detroit L
38 @Chicago W
27 @Miami W
23 @New Orleans L
24 @Vikings W
13 @Buffalo L
20 @Tampa Bay W

Average 21 and 4-4 SU

I think that you have to consider that the packers aren't the same team outside Lambeau.

You can't just take offensive opponents of Seattle to convince us that Green Bay +7.5 is the play here.


Thanks for your respond and the template. You just pointed out what I wanted to say with the mismatch of Seattle's d-line against the Packers o-line. Seattle got players back on the defense, but not on d-line. Furthermore they lost their nose tackle Brandon Mebane and now Jordan Hill. As much as people will say it's not true: The Seattle weakness is their d-line. They couldn't get enough pressure on Tony, Peyton, Eli & Derek through four quarters, so why should they get enough pressure on Aaron ? I just can't see it. Aaron Rodgers struggled on the road when he faced big time pressure from the opposite d-line - at Buffalo, at Seattle and at Detroit. The o-line and running game adjusted much from the first week at Seattle and Seattle lost Mebane/Hill. At New Orleans ? Well that hadn't much to do with Rodgers playing poor on the road as I pointed out at BB's thread:

"Rodgers almost made no mistakes in that game, despite playing with a hammy. He threw two INT off good thrown passes. These were simply tipped into Saints hands after his receivers had the first touch. Saints scored 31 (!) points off three turnovers (2x INT, 1x 4th down) and two failed onside kicks (2x) from the Packers. They were in the 4th down situation because Davante Adams dropped a catchable pass. That game had nothing to do with the Saints defense or the Rodgers injury and it won't happen again in the next three years. Rodgers' stats in that game: 28/37; 418 yards; 10.7 YPPA."

Seahawks d-line vs. Packers o-line will be the key matchup IMO and give the visiting team the big edge here.


 
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Posted: #10

Nice analyis here Suuma.  I like your bets and I see 61%+ in your future.  Thanks for this great contribution to covers.

 
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Posted: #11

Suuma
 
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Posted: #13

Let's give the points and take Indy as well!
 
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Posted: #14

Gl this week Suuma
 
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Posted: #15

I like that teaser! Why didn't I think of that!? I'm tailing you on this one. GB +7.5 is a winner, best of luck. *hankshake
 
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Posted: #16

Much respect Suuma, I could tell you would be on Green Bay this week by your comments on other threads. I know you watched the Dallas game. Aron Rodgers is hurt pretty bad. There were many plays he would of ran out of the pocket and couldn't. The offensive line stats that you give are with a healthy Arod. Look up the stat of who makes the most competitions " out of the pocket". I will save you the time. It's Arod. And it's not close , it's by a mile. I still havnt placed my bet yet and I'm still on the fence. I Have a strong lean on Seattle as I'm sure you have read in other threads. But something about betting against the packers with 7.5 points just seems wrong.
 
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Posted: #17

Excellent write-up for the GB side, Suuma! Couple of things that stood out. 

1) You say Rodgers injury will improve with another week off. From everything I've read, this is absolutely not true. Every time he plays he re-injures the calf and is back to square 1. He needs a month or two off for it to heal properly. This makes capping the Pack trickier than you make it seem (imo). 

2) The assumption you make is that regular season stats correlate to post season play (we just saw what Indi did to Denver) and I don't put much stock in that either. Seattle is one of those teams that can actually elevate its play during the playoffs (especially at home, where they have a rabid fan base). Seattle survived the SB hangover (which is a huge factor here and explains some of their weaker performances this year) and now has a chance to repeat.

Good luck, buddy.  
 
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Posted: #18

One last point. If the d-line can't get to Rodgers (as you claim), Seattle can blitz. They have enough athletes on that team to do this effectively and not get burned by Rodgers.
 
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Posted: #20

Like both sides but don't feel super comfortable laying the points on NE with Luck being involved. Might play Packers and NE the same way you did.

 
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Posted: #21

Quote Originally Posted by powerbalance:

First let me say that I have a lot of respect for you suuma and I always enjoy to read you.

Here's a simple observation of Packers on the road:

16 @Seattle L
7 @Detroit L
38 @Chicago W
27 @Miami W
23 @New Orleans L
24 @Vikings W
13 @Buffalo L
20 @Tampa Bay W

Average 21 and 4-4 SU

I think that you have to consider that the packers aren't the same team outside Lambeau.

You can't just take offensive opponents of Seattle to convince us that Green Bay +7.5 is the play here.

I was leaning GB.. But after looking back at the games in Buffalo and Detroit.. Packers cannot beat teams on the road with stellar D Line.. Rodgers was sacked 8 times when they played 2 seasons ago.. Also Rodger mobility to scramble for chunks or yards or first downs hurt them a bit.. Also rolling out to the right..
D Adams and Quarless need to step up.. I think Nelson will be a non factor to draw double teams or Sherman..

Seattle offense is so unpredictable.. Now that they are passing effectively.. Man they are dangerous.. Russell Wilson didn't even have to run that much and they put up 24 on offense vs Carolina..
 
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Posted: #22

Great analysis, Suuma! That's a lot of the same reasoning behind my play on GB +7.5. I jumped out of the gate and did a teaser with the two favorites when I saw both games open at -7 last weekend, and after really breaking things down, I realized I liked GB getting those points. So I'm hoping NE takes care of business and then Seattle can win by a TD or less to kind of middle my bets.

Also, don't sweat that 61%. Just do your thing and build bank. That's only a number. After the awesome season you just had, there wouldn't be anyone on this site who "scoffed" or respected you less because you wound up at 59.9%.

GL this weekend on your plays and cheers to a great season.
 
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Posted: #23

Quote Originally Posted by powerbalance:

First let me say that I
have a lot of respect for you suuma and I always enjoy to read you.Here's a simple observation of Packers on the road:16 @Seattle L7 @Detroit L38 @Chicago W27 @Miami W23 @New Orleans L24 @Vikings W13 @Buffalo L20 @Tampa Bay WAverage 21 and 4-4 SUI think that you have to consider that the packers aren't the same team outside Lambeau.You can't just take offensive opponents of Seattle to convince us that Green Bay +7.5 is the play here.


This is a great post, but in a lot of those games, GB was that -3 or -4 or even -9 road favorite. Getting 7.5 is a whole new animal IMO. Seattle can come out and dominate GB and yet in a 24-10 kind of game late in the 4th....you got Rodgers getting a TD+....that's a whole other animal.

GL this weekend with Seattle. I think they are hands down the best team in football and a tight game can turn into a ROUT quickly in that home stadium, and I woulfbt be surprised in the least if a 21-10 game turned into 42-10 with a couple big plays, but I have to take the points here.
 
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Posted: #24

Tough game with the Rodgers injury here...also the Packers run defense was not good giving up 121 yards per game and they we're not the same team on the road averaging 21 pts per game away from Home this year...  Very nice season you had suuma  GL
 
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